Associated Press
Demetrious Johnson, right, fights John Dodson during UFC flyweight championship at the United Center in Chicago, Saturday, Jan. 26, 2013.
Thursday, July 25, 2013 | 2 a.m.
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If Demetrious Johnson gets by John Moraga in the main event of UFC on Fox 8 Saturday in Seattle, “Mighty Mouse” will soon celebrate his one-year anniversary as a champion.
Johnson joins another exclusive fraternity of fighters before even stepping into the cage to meet Moraga; he's one of the rare few who’s a 5-to-1 betting favorite ahead of a UFC title fight.
Sports books across Las Vegas have Johnson as high as minus-500 (risking $5 to win $1) with Moraga coming back at plus-350 (risking $1 to win $3.50) in the flyweight championship bout.
The Las Vegas Sun picks panel thinks Johnson is worth every cent. None of the five prognosticators hesitated in choosing Johnson to defend his gold for a second consecutive fight.
Look below to find a breakdown and betting odds for all 12 fights on UFC on Fox 8 along with picks from KSNV’s Kevin West (72-32 year to date), ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (70-34), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (68-36), Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (67-37) and ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (66-38).
No. 4 John Moraga
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’6”
- Weight: 125
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 13-1
- Out of: Phoenix
- Betting line: +350
Champion Demetrious Johnson
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’3”
- Weight: 125
- UFC record 4-1-1
- MMA record 17-2-1
- Out of: Seattle
- Betting line: -500
Flyweight Championship Bout
Main Event
Last fight: Submitted Chris Cariaso in the third round at UFC 155.
Punch list: The upside: “Chicano John” has wrecked both of his opponents with finishes in the octagon, knocking out Ulysses Gomez before submitting Cariaso. The downside: He remains more or less unknown, having fought in the first fight on the preliminary card in both of his UFC bouts.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Johnson
Cofield: Johnson
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over John Dodson at UFC on Fox 6.
Punch list: The upside: “Mighty Mouse” has given immediate stability to the UFC’s newest weight class by each of the top three other fighters in the division. The downside: He has never finished a fight in the UFC or been a part of any stoppage in nearly three years.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Johnson
Brewer: Johnson
Okamoto: Johnson
No. 4 Jake Ellenberger
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 8-2
- MMA record 29-6
- Out of: Lake Forest, Calif.
- Betting line: +190
No. 3 Rory MacDonald
- Age: 24
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 5-1
- MMA record 14-1
- Out of: Montreal
- Betting line: -240
Welterweight Bout
Co-Main Event
Last fight: Knocked out Nate Marquardt in the first round at UFC 158.
Punch list: Given that Ellenberger’s suddenly gotten more vocal, a win here might lead to him demanding a title shot in the octagon afterwards. With the potential for a ninth win in 10 fights, “The Juggernaut” would have a compelling argument.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: MacDonald
Cofield: MacDonald
Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over B.J. Penn at UFC on Fox 5.
Punch list: The single most impressive statistic about MacDonald’s young career is that he’s won 12 of the 13 rounds he’s fought in the UFC. The lone slip-up, a TKO in the third round against Carlos Condit, continues to haunt him even though he’s won four straight in the aftermath.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: MacDonald
Brewer: MacDonald
Okamoto: MacDonald
Bobby Voelker
- Age: 34
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 24-9
- Out of: Kansas City, Kan.
- Betting line: +230
No. 9 Robbie Lawler
- Age: 31
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 171
- UFC record 5-3
- MMA record 20-9
- Out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
- Betting line: -300
Welterweight Bout
Featured Fight
Last fight: Unanimous-decision defeat against Patrick Cote at UFC 158.
Punch list: Voelker was victimized by one of the worst decisions of the year his last time out. The Strikeforce veteran walked out of the octagon in Montreal incredulous over how three judges scored the fight against him, a sentiment shared by media and fans.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Lawler
Cofield: Lawler
Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Josh Koscheck at UFC 157.
Punch list: After losing five of his eight fights in Strikeforce, Lawler exploded back onto the UFC scene with a return to welterweight in February. Was catching Koscheck a one-off grant of good luck or a sign of resurgence? This fight should help tell.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Voelker
Brewer: Lawler
Okamoto: Lawler
Jessica Andrade
- Age: 21
- Height: 5’3”
- Weight: 136
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 9-2
- Out of: Rio de Janeiro
- Betting line: +400
No. 5 Liz Carmouche
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’6”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 8-3
- Out of: San Jose, Calif.
- Betting line: -600
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Main Card Opener
Last fight: Beat Milana Dudleva by submission in the second round at ProFC 47.
Punch list: “Bate Estaca” lives up to many of the stereotypes attached to her as a Brazilian prospect. She’s proficient at jiu-jitsu, with two straight wins by submission, and practiced martial arts from a young age, a background that could make her dangerous.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Carmouche
Cofield: Carmouche
Last fight: First-round submission loss to Ronda Rousey at UFC 157.
Punch list: Carmouche is expected to smash through Andrade, which might be the biggest drawback. It’s a no-win situation for “Girl-Rilla”, who was a middle-of-the-road journeywoman fighter before getting featured in the first-ever UFC women’s bout against Rousey.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Carmouche
Brewer: Carmouche
Okamoto: Carmouche
Jorge Masvidal
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 1-0
- MMA record 24-7
- Out of: Miami
- Betting line: -275
Michael Chiesa
- Age: 25
- Height: 6’1”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 9-0
- Out of: Spokane Valley, Wash.
- Betting line: +215
Lightweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Defeated Tim Means by unanimous decision at UFC on Fox 7.
Punch list: Masvidal will come out with his usual strategy of looking to strike. It’s suited him well since reaching the big leagues with Strikeforce two years ago, as the former backyard-fighting Kimbo Slice protégé has won four of five with the only loss coming in a title fight against Gilber Melendez.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Chiesa
Cofield: Masvidal
Last fight: Second-round submission of Anton Kuivanen at UFC 157
Punch list: No matter how many disadvantages he’s up against or how much early trouble he encounters, Chiesa always seems to come back. “The Ultimate Fighter Live” champion continually smothers with his wrestling and pounces with his submissions.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Masvidal
Brewer: Masvidal
Okamoto: Masvidal
Tim Means
- Age: 29
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 18-4
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: +175
Danny Castillo
- Age: 33
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 5-2
- MMA record 15-5
- Out of: Sacramento, Calif.
- Betting line: -225
Lightweight Bout
FX prelim
Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Jorge Masvidal at UFC on Fox 7.
Punch list: “The Dirty Bird” took this assignment on short notice when Bobby Green pulled out of the fight less than three weeks ago. He knows his challenge will be to stay standing with Castillo relentlessly shooting for takedowns.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Means
Cofield: Castillo
Last fight: Beat Paul Sass by unanimous decision at UFC on Fuel TV 7.
Punch list: The only UFC lightweight member of Team Alpha Male, Castillo fights much like squad patriarch Urijah Faber. “Last Call”, now a five-year veteran of Zuffa dating back to his years in the WEC, uses his wrestling first and foremost.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Castillo
Brewer: Means
Okamoto: Castillo
Melvin Guillard
- Age: 30
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 11-8
- MMA record 30-12-2
- Out of: Denver
- Betting line: -125
Mac Danzig
- Age: 33
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 5-6
- MMA record21-10-1
- Out of: Los Angeles
- Betting line: -105
Lightweight Bout
FX prelim
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Jamie Varner at UFC 155.
Punch list: The upside: Guillard remains one of the quickest and most powerful lightweights in the UFC. The downside: He hasn’t made good use of his advantages recently, going from prospective top contender to potential unemployment candidate after losing four of five.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Danzig
Cofield: Guillard
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Takanori Gomi at UFC on Fuel TV 6.
Punch list: The upside: Danzig has stuck in the UFC for six years since winning the sixth season of “The Ultimate Fighter”. The downside: He’s just barely hung on, with his only two-fight win streak coming six years ago and three consecutive losses following it.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Guillard
Brewer: Guillard
Okamoto: Guillard
Daron Cruickshank
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 2-1
- MMA record 12-3
- Out of: Detroit
- Betting line: -135
Yves Edwards
- Age: 36
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 10-7
- MMA record 42-19-1
- Out of: The Woodlands, Texas
- Betting line: +105
Lightweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Lost to John Makdessi by unanimous decision at UFC 158.
Punch list: The momentum Cruickshank had built with a six-fight win streak and head-kick knockout of Henry Martinez took a hit his last time out. Not only did he lose Makdessi, but the fight was forgettable and featured little action compared with some of Cruickshank’s finer performances.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Cruickshank
Cofield: Cruickshank
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Isaac Vallie-Flagg at UFC 156.
Punch list: Edwards, like Cruickshank, was riding high last December after a flash-knockout at UFC on Fox 5. But he couldn’t keep it up against Vallie-Flagg, as a razor-thin war of attrition where a case could be made for each fighter winning ensued at the Mandalay Bay Events Center.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Cruickshank
Brewer: Edwards
Okamoto: Cruickshank
Trevor Smith
- Age: 32
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 10-3
- Out of: Vancouver, Wash.
- Betting line: +200
Ed Herman
- Age: 32
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 193
- UFC record 7-6
- MMA record 20-9
- Out of: Fort Collins, Colo.
- Betting line: -250
Middleweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Submitted in the third round by Tim Kennedy at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine.
Punch list: Despite losing his final two Strikeforce bouts definitively, “Hot Sauce” gets the chance of a lifetime on the undercard. The hopeful gets to make his UFC debut in front a home crowd. Smith began his career at heavyweight before cutting down the 185-pound division.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Herman
Cofield: Herman
Last fight: Submitted in the first round by Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine.
Punch list: “Short Fuse” earns the peculiar distinction of being the only UFC fighter to cross over into Strikeforce after Zuffa purchased the smaller organization. A short-notice loss to Jacare came out of it, but Herman didn’t lose much ground in the UFC as a result.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Herman
Brewer: Herman
Okamoto: Herman
No. 10 Germaine de Randamie
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 144
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 3-2
- Out of: San Jose, Calif.
- Betting line: -125
No. 8 Julie Kedzie
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’5”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 16-11
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: -105
Women’s Bantamweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Beat Hiroko Yamanaka by unanimous decision at Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman.
Punch list: “The Iron Lady” left her home in the Netherlands to hone her skills at American Top Team in the Bay Area. She has to like the results so far, as she went 2-1 in Strikeforce when the organization was the top promoter of women’s fighting.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Kedzie
Cofield: de Randamie
Last fight: Third-round submission loss to Miesha Tate at Strikeforce: Rousey vs. Kaufman.
Punch list: Universally liked and respected within the MMA sphere, Kedzie’s profile extended to more casual fighting circles with her performance against Tate. Although she ultimately lost, the fight thrilled with non-stop action and helped accelerate the push to get women into the UFC.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Kedzie
Brewer: de Randamie
Okamoto: Kedzie
Justin Salas
- Age: 31
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 1-1
- MMA record 10-4
- Out of: Denver
- Betting line: -250
Aaron Riley
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 3-5
- MMA record 30-13-1
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: +195
Lightweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Tony Ferguson at UFC 135.
Punch list: Despite being about the same age, Riley has fought professionally for nine more years than Salas. The longtime member of Greg Jackson’s camp just hasn’t been entirely active, not fighting in two years and only three times since August 2009.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Riley
Cofield: Riley
Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Tony Ferguson at UFC 135.
Punch list: Despite being about the same age, Riley has fought professionally for nine more years than Salas. The longtime member of Greg Jackson’s camp just hasn’t been entirely active, not fighting in two years and only three times since August 2009.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Salas
Brewer: Salas
Okamoto: Riley
Yaotzin Meza
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 18-8
- Out of: Phoenix
- Betting line: +210
John Albert
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 1-3
- MMA record 7-4
- Out of: Puyallup, Wash.
- Betting line: -270
Bantamweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Chad Mendes at UFC on FX 6.
Punch list: Meza saved the UFC by accepting a last-minute fight against Mendes, the No. 1 ranked featherweight, last year in Australia. Now the El Mirage, Ariz., water department worker gets his pay off in the form of another bout in the UFC, one where he had full time to prepare.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Meza
Cofield: Albert
Last fight: First-round submission loss to Scott Jorgensen at UFC on Fox 5.
Punch list: It speaks volume that Albert has kept his job despite three straight first-round submission losses. The UFC sees potential in “The Ultimate Fighter” 14 alum, and probably realizes that consecutive bouts against Jorgensen, Erik Perez and Ivan Menjivar was an insanely difficult slate.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Albert
Brewer: Meza
Okamoto: Albert
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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