Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun
Carlos Condit throws a spinning left at Nick Diaz during their interim welterweight championship bout Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. Condit won a unanimous decision and will likely face Georges St. Pierre in November.
Thursday, March 14, 2013 | 2 a.m.
The hysteria surrounding Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz has severely affected rest of the fights scheduled at Saturday’s UFC 158.
It’s taken away from fights that, according to oddsmakers, should prove exponentially more competitive than the main event. Although St. Pierre is already higher than a 5-to-1 favorite over Diaz in some spots, the three bouts directly below the welterweight championship match on the pay-per-view card from Montreal’s Bell Centre are all near pick’em at sports books.
The co-main event between the top two ranked welterweights — No. 1 Johny Hendricks and No. 2 Carlos Condit — opened with both fighters at -115 (risking $1.15 to win $1). Money has since come in on Hendricks, which the Sun picks panel can’t get behind.
A majority selected Condit, along with favorite Jake Ellenberger over Nate Marquardt and slight underdog Chris Camozzi in the other two most notable bouts.
Find picks, betting odds and a breakdown of every fighter below. The panel consists of Steve Cofield (23-11 year to date) from ESPN Radio, Ray Brewer (22-12) of the Sun, 2012 champion Kevin West (19-15) from KUNV, 2011 champion Case Keefer (19-15) from the Sun and ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (18-16).
Nick Diaz
- Age: 29
- Height: 6’0''
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 7-5
- MMA record 26-8
- Out of: Stockton, Calif.
- Betting line: +350
Georges St. Pierre
- Age: 31
- Height: 5’10''
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 17-2
- MMA record 23-2
- Out of: Montreal
- Betting line: -450
Welterweight Championship Bout
Main Event
Last fight: Lost a unanimous decision to Carlos Condit at UFC 143.
Punch list: Diaz fights the same way regardless of opponent. He’s going to come forward and slap punches, scoring more with volume than power. When he gets frustrated, he’s good for a few middle fingers and trash talk in the cage. That could actually be valuable against St. Pierre. Turning this match into a brawl would give Diaz, who’s coming off of what seems like an under-discussed 14-month layoff, his best chance to win.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: St. Pierre
Cofield: St. Pierre
Last fight: Defeated Carlos Condit by unanimous decision at UFC 154.
Punch list: There are several reasons why the three-time Rogers Canadian Athlete of the Year has pieced together one of the best title reigns in UFC history. St. Pierre, who could tie Anderson Silva for a record 11 title-fight victories against Diaz, possesses the skills to tailor his approach for every fighter he meets. Against Diaz, that’s expected to mean a ton of wrestling and ground-and-pound.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: St. Pierre
Brewer: St. Pierre
Okamoto: St. Pierre
Johny Hendricks
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 9-1
- MMA record 14-1
- Out of: Dallas
- Betting line: -140
Carlos Condit
- Age: 28
- Height: 6’2''
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 5-2
- MMA record 28-6
- Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
- Betting line: +110
Welterweight Bout
Co-Main Event
Last fight: Knocked out Martin Kampmann in the first round at UFC 154.
Punch list: Take away entertainment and pay-per-view sales as title-fight factors, and Hendricks is the one challenging St. Pierre for the title at Bell Centre. The No. 1 ranked welterweight has won five straight, beating three top-10 fighters in the streak and scoring three first-round knockouts. He’s got the best style to test St. Pierre — strong wrestling and knockout power — but will need to win another toss-up fight to get there.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Condit
Cofield: Hendricks
Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 154.
Punch list: “The Natural Born Killer” gave the champion what he called one of the toughest fights of his career. Condit, who held the interim belt, was painfully close to becoming the undisputed champion in Montreal last November — dropping St. Pierre with a head kick in the third round. Now the second-ranked welterweight looks to get right back into the title conversation with a win over Hendricks.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Hendricks
Brewer: Condit
Okamoto: Condit
Nate Marquardt
- Age: 33
- Height: 6’0’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 10-4
- MMA record 32-11-4
- Out of: Denver
- Betting line: +140
Jake Ellenberger
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’10’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 7-2
- MMA record 28-6
- Out of: Lake Forest, Calif.
- Betting line: -170
Welterweight Bout
Featured Fight
Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Tarec Saffiedine at Strikeforce: Marquardt vs. Saffiedine.
Punch list: “Never” turned into just less than two years. “The Great” is back in the UFC, which Dana White said would never happen after he had to pull out of a main event for elevated testosterone levels in June 2011. But Marquardt is off of testosterone replacement therapy now and settled at his new welterweight division, where he briefly captured the Strikeforce title.
Picks:KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Ellenberger
Cofield: Marquardt
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Jay Hieron at UFC on FX 5.
Punch list: Winner of seven of his last eight, Ellenberger remains one of the toughest guys to crack at 170 pounds. Ranked No. 6 by the media, he’s likely to still fight for a title someday. The biggest obstacle will be his cardio. Ellenberger regularly looks like one of the best in the world in the first round, but fades progressively as the bout goes on.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Ellenberger
Brewer: Ellenberger
Okamoto: Ellenberger
Chris Camozzi
- Age: 26
- Height: 6’3''
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 4-2
- MMA record 18-5
- Out of: Lakewood, Colo.
- Betting line: -105
Nick Ring
- Age: 34
- Height: 6’1''
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 3-1
- MMA record 13-1
- Out of: Calgary, Alberta
- Betting line: -125
Middleweight Bout
Pay-Per-View Fight
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Luiz Cane at UFC 153.
Punch list: Re-read Ring’s description. Most, if not all of it, also applies to Camozzi. He’s one of the toughest fighters in the UFC, never shying away from contact or eating strikes in order to land some of his own. There’s likely only room for one fighter that fits this profile at the top of the 185-pound division.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Camozzi
Cofield: Ring
Last fight: Beat Court McGee by unanimous decision at UFC 149.
Punch list: Without top-flight athleticism or world-class talents, Ring makes up for it with sheer willpower. No one has ever finished him, as Ring boasts impressive submission defense and an iron chin. He was supposed to fight on the last Montreal card but fell extremely ill hours before a scheduled bout with Constantinos Philippou.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Camozzi
Brewer: Camozzi
Okamoto: Camozzi
Colin Fletcher
- Age: 30
- Height: 6’2’’
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 8-2
- Out of: Sunderland, England
- Betting line: +225
Mike Ricci
- Age: 26
- Height: 6’0’’
- Weight: 171
- UFC record 0-1
- MMA record 7-3
- Out of: Montreal
- Betting line: -285
Lightweight Bout
Pay-Per-View Opener
Last fight: Lost a unanimous decision to Norman Parke at UFC on FX 6.
Punch list: “Freakshow” had the luxury of fighting at his natural weight class on “TUF: The Smashes”, but finished as the runner-up. At least he lived up to his nickname. Just watch him at Friday’s weigh-in. Fletcher will, in all likelihood, sport fake teeth and maybe even a mask.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Ricci
Cofield: Ricci
Last fight: Lost to Colton Smith by unanimous decision at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: Ricci nearly won his season of “TUF” despite competing 15 pounds over his natural weight limit. Now back at lightweight, the training partner of St. Pierre could establish himself as a true prospect. He’s a technical striker with quite a bit of confidence, or as it’s popularly referred, cockiness.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Ricci
Brewer: Ricci
Okamoto: Ricci
Bobby Voelker
- Age: 33
- Height: 6’0’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 24-8
- Out of: Kansas City, Kan.
- Betting line: +160
Patrick Cote
- Age: 33
- Height: 5’11’’
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 5-8
- MMA record 18-8
- Out of: Montreal
- Betting line: -180
Welterweight Bout
FX prelim
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Roger Bowling at Strikeforce Challengers: Voelker vs. Bowling III.
Punch list: It’s a feel-good story to see the Midwestern journeyman step foot into the octagon. Strikeforce threw Voelker batch of tough fights, and he responded by going 4-1. But now, because of injuries, he hasn’t fought in 20 months. He hasn’t fought anyone except Bowling — whom he beat twice after losing the first fight — since July 2010.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Cote
Cofield: Voelker
Last fight: Disqualification win over Alessio Sakara at UFC 154.
Punch list: This was supposed to be the rematch between Cote and Sakara. The hometown former top contender received a gift from the Italian when they met in Montreal last November. On the verge of knocking Cote out to lead to his third release from the UFC, Sakara illegally struck him in the back of the head several times to get disqualified.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Voelker
Brewer: Cote
Okamoto: Cote
Darren Elkins
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’10”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 5-1
- MMA record 15-1
- Out of: Hobart, Ind.
- Betting line: -230
Antonio Carvalho
- Age: 33
- Height: 5’8’’
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 2-1
- MMA record 15-5
- Out of: Oshawa, Ontario
- Betting line: +190
Featherweight Bout
FX prelim
Last fight: Beat Steven Siler by unanimous decision at UFC 154.
Punch list: “The Damage” knows he needs to start some registering some stoppages. Despite winning four straight, Elkins has neither received much acclaim nor even cracked the UFC rankings. That’s because all of those wins have followed the same pattern — unanimous-decisions after smothering his opponent with wrestling.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Elkins
Cofield: Elkins
Last fight: Split-decision victory over Rodrigo Damm at UFC 154.
Punch list: “Pato” is not one of the better known featherweights, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a heck of a fighter. The Brazilian holds a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and has knocked out seven opponents. He also fought several high-level fighters earlier in his career as part of the Shooto promotion in Japan.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Elkins
Brewer: Elkins
Okamoto: Elkins
Jordan Mein
- Age: 23
- Height: 6’0’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 26-8
- Out of: Lethbridge, Alberta
- Betting line: -250
Dan Miller
- Age: 31
- Height: 6’0’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 6-5
- MMA record 14-6
- Out of: Whippany, N.J.
- Betting line: +200
Welterweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out Forrest Petz in the first round at Score Fighting Series 7.
Punch list: “Young Gun” turned professional when he was 17-years old and quickly built a name for himself on the Canadian circuit, and later, in Strikeforce. Trained by his kickboxer father, Mein regularly outstrikes veterans who have twice as much experience.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Mein
Cofield: Mein
Last fight: Submitted Ricardo Funch in the third round at UFC on FX 4.
Punch list: The guillotine choke he locked in on Funch last June won Miller a Submission of the Night bonus. It wasn’t a bad way to start his foray down to 170 pounds. Miller has a strength and size advantage against most competitors at welterweight. And he’s never lost by stoppage.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Miller
Brewer: Mein
Okamoto: Mein
Daron Cruickshank
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 12-2
- Out of: Detroit
- Betting line: -185
John Makdessi
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’8’’
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 3-2
- MMA record 10-2
- Out of: Montreal
- Betting line: +160
Lightweight Bout
FX Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out Henry Martinez in the second round at UFC on Fox 5.
Punch list: Putting on a show is what “The Detroit Superstar” prides himself of. He succeeded last time out. Cruickshank caught Martinez with a head kick that made everyone at the Key Arena in Seattle gasp. After a disappointing early exit during “The Ultimate Fighter Live” tournament, Cruickshank has bounced back to win two in a row.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Cruickshank
Cofield: Cruickshank
Last fight: Beat Sam Stout by unanimous decision at UFC 154.
Punch list: Mark this down as the potential can’t-miss fight of the undercard. “The Bull” performs his best when pitted against like-minded strikers such as Cruickshank. Makdessi will look to keep the pace up in front of his hometown fans and perhaps even show some creativity with use of his taekwondo background.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Cruickshank
Brewer: Cruickshank
Okamoto: Cruickshank
Quinn Mulhern
- Age: 28
- Height: 6’3’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 18-2
- Out of: Santa Fe, N.M.
- Betting line: +320
Rick Story
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’10’’
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 7-4
- MMA record 14-6
- Out of: Vancouver, Wash.
- Betting line: -400
Welterweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: Beat Yuri Villefort by split decision at Strikeforce: Barnett vs. Cormier.
Punch list: Just because Mulhern is a UFC newcomer doesn’t mean this is a walkthrough fight for Story. The submission specialist competed in several of the more notable smaller promotions, capped off by a 3-1 run in Strikeforce over the last two years.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Story
Cofield: Story
Last fight: First-round submission loss to Demian Maia at UFC 153.
Punch list: Two years ago, Story was on the verge of a title shot in the 170-pound division. It’s been all downhill from there as “The Horror” has dropped three of his last four. He’s running out of chances to salvage what once looked like a career destined for greatness.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Story
Brewer: Story
Okamoto: Story
Issei Tamura
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’5”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 1-1
- MMA record 7-3
- Out of: Tokyo
- Betting line: +425
T.J. Dillashaw
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’6’
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 2-1
- MMA record 6-1
- Out of: Sacramento, Calif.
- Betting line: -550
Bantamweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: Second-round TKO loss to Raphael Assuncao at UFC on Fuel TV 4.
Punch list: Originally brought on to fight on the UFC’s return to Japan card, Tamura now gets his second straight stiff assignment. Assuncao ranks sixth in the 135-pound division, and it might not be long before Dillashaw joins him around there.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Dillashaw
Cofield: Dillashaw
Last fight: First-round submission victory over Vaughan Lee at UFC on Fuel TV 4.
Punch list: Dillashaw is the top prospect worth watching on the undercard. He’s got championship-level potential, and may reach it faster than expected. Urijah Faber, training partner and mentor, said it’s “50/50” on who gets the best of who on any given day in the gym.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Dillashaw
Brewer: Dillashaw
Okamoto: Dillashaw
Reuben Duran
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’6’’
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 1-2
- MMA record 8-4-1
- Out of: Redlands, Calf.
- Betting line: -140
George Roop
- Age: 31
- Height: 6’1’’
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 2-5
- MMA record 12-9-1
- Out of: Las Vegas
- Betting line: +110
Bantamweight Bout
Facebook Prelim
Last fight: Knocked out by Hugo Viana at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: Duran will face an uphill battle dealing with Roop’s reach and size advantages. But, using past performances as an indication, he’s up to it. “Hurricane” presses the action regardless of who’s standing across from him.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
West: Roop
Cofield: Duran
Last fight: Second-round knockout loss against Cub Swanson at UFC on Fox 2.
Punch list: So, Roop is around following a mouthpiece-jarring knockout from Swanson after all. He hasn’t been seen anywhere near the octagon in the 15 months since the violent defeat. There’s another reason to fear for his safety in Montreal: Roop’s cutting an additional 10 pounds to make bantamweight for the first time in more than three years.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Duran
Brewer: Roop
Okamoto: Roop
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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