Week 16 NFL picks and game of the week for Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 20, 2014 | 2 a.m.

The AFC is deep into invalidating the NFL’s annual promise of parity.

For at least half of the league, this season has played out shockingly predictable. The six teams currently in the AFC playoffs are the exact six teams rated the highest by sports books at the beginning of the year by every measure.

The group — the Patriots, Broncos, Colts, Bengals, Steelers and Ravens — had the six lowest Super Bowl odds, highest over/under win totals and shortest proposition prices to reach the postseason. And the most likely outsider that could cause any dissension is one that made the playoffs last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs would pilfer the Steelers’ spot with one week to go if they pull off an upset as a 3-point underdog in a 10 a.m. kickoff Sunday at Heinz Field in Pittsburgh. The all-important meeting is the Sun handicapping contest’s game of the week after all three prognosticators used one of six weekly selections — available in full at the bottom of the page — on Kansas City at Pittsburgh.

The only other teams with any semblance of a realistic wild-card berth are the San Diego Chargers and the Buffalo Bills, which are both tied with the Chiefs at 8-6 straight-up. But both have a 10 percent or less chance, according to Football Outsiders’ playoff odds, with the Chiefs and Steelers playing each other.

Betting odds are just as disparaging. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has the Bills at 200-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. The Chargers aren’t far behind at 100-to-1.

The Chiefs are 80-to-1, a slight downgrade from their 50-to-1 tag at the start of the season. Pittsburgh has also seen its price rise, going from 22- to 30-to-1.

Neither the Chiefs nor the Steelers would likely trade their current positions to restart the season, though. The surprising part isn’t as much that they’re in the thick of the playoff race. It’s how they’ve gotten there.

Their success has come in defiance of their franchise’s usual stereotypes. Dominant defenses are always cited as the reason for Pittsburgh’s NFL-best six Super Bowl victories.

But this year’s defense probably couldn’t stop a reformed modern-day version of the 1974 Steelers that won the team’s first championship. Pittsburgh is second-to-last in the NFL in giving up 6.2 yards per play to opponents.

Luckily for the Steelers, the offense has atoned with 6.2 yards per play of its own — the best output in the NFL.

Throwing for 4,415 yards, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has already broken his career high and the franchise record with two games to go. Roethlisberger’s favorite target Antonio Brown leads the league with 115 receptions and 1,498 receiving yards, two yards away from his own all-time Steelers’ mark.

The only thing Brown can’t catch is the Pittsburgh record for yards from the line of scrimmage as running back Le’Veon Bell, the league’s second-leading rusher, has claimed that one with 2,043 this season.

Former Chiefs coach Todd Haley, it turns out, has recovered just dandily as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator after concerns coming into the season. When Kansas City hired an offensive mind like Haley in 2009, it made perfect sense from an organizational standpoint.

The Chiefs’ best teams of the last 20 years were offensive-oriented with ferocious offensive lines, Pro Bowl running backs and innovative downfield passing attacks. While they can still run the ball this season — Jamaal Charles’ 5.2 yards per carry is second in the NFL and up from a year ago —they’re more renowned for an unflattering streak.

Under the direction of quarterback Alex Smith, Kansas City is now one game away from breaking the record for most consecutive contests without a touchdown pass to a wide receiver. It will be 18 straight games if Smith continues to look away from under-utilized players such as Dwayne Bowe, Donnie Avery and Albert Wilson.

At least opposing receivers aren’t producing either. The Chiefs lead the NFL in allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

Their secondary, led by budding shutdown corner Sean Smith, has played much better than anticipated. A pass rush helps, as outside linebacker Justin Houston leads the NFL with 17 sacks.

Defense has kept the Chiefs’ playoff hopes alive.

They’re tied for the third-best against the spread record in the NFL at a profitable 9-5, but tarnished their reputation with a couple inexplicable losses. Two of the Chiefs’ six defeats came in games where they opened as heavy favorites, week 1 against the Titans and week 12 versus the Raiders, but fell to two-win bottom feeders.

Pittsburgh has gotten pulled down in a pair of games against the NFL’s dregs too, losing outright to Tampa Bay in week 4 and tumbling to the New York Jets in week 10.

Both teams have played better as underdogs with a combined 9-3 against the spread record as contrasted with a 7-9 mark when laying points. All the upsets mean parity still exists on the micro level.

On the macro, the season has played to the form oddsmakers forecasted.

Check below for all of the week 16 picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

Record: 51-37-2 (2-3-1 last week)

Redskins plus-7.5 at Eagles

Dolphins minus-6.5 vs. Vikings

Chiefs plus-3 at Steelers

Browns plus-3.5 at Panthers

Raiders plus-6.5 vs. Bills

Broncos minus-3 at Bengals

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 47-40-3 (3-2-1 last week)

Falcons plus-6.5 at Saints

Chiefs plus-3 at Steelers

Giants plus-6.5 at Rams

Raiders plus-6.5 vs. Bills

Colts plus-3.5 at Cowboys

Cardinals plus-8 vs. Seahawks

 

Ray Brewer

Record: 43-47 (0-6 last week)

Saints minus-6.5 vs. Falcons

Jets vs. Patriots over 46.5

Steelers minus-3 vs. Chiefs

Colts plus-3.5 at Cowboys

Cardinals plus-8 vs. Seahawks

Broncos minus-3 at Bengals

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.