Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Week 17 NFL picks and game of the week for Sun’s handicapping contest

How each of the six teams in division championship games will win

Dalton week 17

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton (14) takes the field for an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos Monday, Dec. 22, 2014, in Cincinnati.

Several of the games in week 17 ring as hollow as Christmas bells in May.

Half of the league has nothing left to play for, leaving games between two destitute opponents unpredictable. Matchups pairing playoff-bound or hopeful teams against an opponent going nowhere can be just as perplexing, if not more so, with the prevalent question of motivation for the latter.

It’s treacherous terrain for bettors, who respond with a tendency to ignore the bottom of the board at the end of the year. The bulk of sports books’ handle Sunday will fall on the games with actual stakes on both sides.

The Sun’s handicapping contest is following the market’s lead. The game of the week in the competition requiring three sports writers to make six against the spread selections weekly — full picks available at the bottom of the page — is split between the three that will determine division championships.

The NFL will award a home playoff game to the winner of Carolina at Atlanta, Detroit at Green Bay and Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. For the second straight year, we’ll make a case for all six teams to cover in their respective showdowns below.

The case for Atlanta minus-3: The Falcons don’t deserve the laughs they’ve drawn all season for sitting atop the NFC South despite a losing record. They’re better than their 6-9 record and general perception indicates.

An inauspicious 2-4 mark in games decided by a touchdown or less is to blame for the misread. Atlanta’s minus-5 point differential, which yields 7.3 expected victories through 15 games, is a fairer measure. Coach Mike Smith fessed up to costing the Falcons a couple of their narrow losses with ill-advised time management and maddeningly conservative play calling, proving that he’s learned from his mistakes and won’t repeat them in a game of this magnitude.

Atlanta’s offense will prove too much for Carolina in the end. The Falcons are one of five teams in the NFL gaining at least 5 yards per play, and top receiver Julio Jones is coming off three straight games with more than 100 yards. The Panthers rank 26th in the league at defending No. 1 receivers, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

The case for Carolina plus-3: Forget the rest of the season. It’s not as relevant as what’s happened in the last few weeks. Carolina is peaking at the right time.

The Panthers’ defense has finally started to play like the unit that led the franchise to the NFC’s No. 2 seed last year during a three-game winning streak. They’re in the NFL’s top 10 in giving up just 4.9 yards per play since the start of December. Defensive captains don’t get any better than middle linebacker Luke Kuechly, who’s one week away from leading the NFL in tackles for the second time in three seasons.

Running back Jonathan Stewart is resurrected and injury-free, averaging 5.3 yards per carry during the win streak. He’ll shred a Falcons’ defense ranked last in the league by DVOA and almost every other all-encompassing measure. Carolina coach Ron Rivera holds an edge on Smith in close games. He’s already gone through the transformation Smith is now attempting last year, turning aggressive in all the right spots.

The case for Green Bay minus-7.5: Offense. Green Bay leads the NFL with 6.2 yards per play and 7.9 yards per pass attempt.

There’s no player any team could want more than Aaron Rodgers in this situation. Statistically, Rodgers is having his best season since 2011 when the Packers went 15-1. He’s one decent game away from his second NFL MVP award, listed as a minus-400 (risking $4 to win $1) favorite at offshore sports books. Anecdotally, Rodgers prevailed in this same situation a year ago. The Packers entered week 17 needing to beat the Bears for the NFC North crown and Rodgers, off of a layoff from a broken collarbone, threw for 313 yards in a 33-28 victory to cover a 3-point spread.

The Lions may have beaten the Packers earlier this season, 19-7 as 1-point favorites, but that was the first time Rodgers had ever lost to the rival when taking the majority of the snaps. Under Rodgers, the Packers are 10-1 straight-up and 8-3 against the spread.

The case for Detroit plus-7.5: Defense. Detroit stands alone as the top defense in DVOA and gives up an NFL-low 3.1 yards per rushing attempt.

Throwing on the Lions isn’t easy, either. They’re sixth in the NFL at surrendering 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Free safety Glover Quinn leads the league with seven interceptions. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh has clogged the middle at times and busted through at others with 8.5 sacks, including one against Rodgers in the first meeting.

Televisions and tablets can’t buy pass protection. Green Bay’s offensive line is still mediocre. Eleven of Detroit’s 15 games have gone under sports books’ point total — posted at 47 for this game — meaning there are rarely enough points to go around for either team to cover a large betting line.

The case for Pittsburgh minus-3.5: The Bengals are overrated. The Steelers are the better team.

There’s no other way to get around Pittsburgh’s 42-21 thrashing of Cincinnati as a 3-point road underdog three weeks ago. The Steelers are 13 points better than the Bengals for the season on point differential; they’re nearly 50 yards per game better in yardage differential. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown nearly twice as many touchdowns as Andy Dalton, 30 to 17, with half of the interceptions, 15 to 8. Le’Veon Bell is the NFL’s second-leading rusher and will march right through Cincinnati. That’s what happened in the first game, as he gained 185 yards and scored two touchdowns on 26 carries.

The Bengals’ 37-28 upset of the Broncos last week was no breakthrough. It just conceals the back-to-back AFC North champions’ long-running issues in primetime games. The Bengals improved to 3-9 against the spread on standalone national television with Dalton under center.

The case for Cincinnati plus-3.5 The Steelers are overrated. The Bengals are the better team.

No mention of the Steelers’ recent three-game winning and covering streak should be complete without a reference to the three games that came before the run. Pittsburgh had failed to cover three in a row, losing outright to lowly New Orleans and New York Jets and squeaking out a victory versus Tennessee. The Bengals’ don’t have any losses to teams as poor as that pair, not to mention another early-season Pittsburgh loss to Tampa Bay at home. The reason is, they have a far better defense. A team giving up 6.1 yards per play like Pittsburgh isn’t going to win the best division in the NFL this year. Cincinnati surrenders 5.3 yards per play. Dalton admittedly has his good days and bad days. But the bad days aren’t going to come against a Pittsburgh secondary that’s never head of good days. Sure enough, Dalton went for 309 yards on 20-for-29 passing in the loss to Pittsburgh earlier this year.

The defense had one of its worst games of the season in that loss, and will be motivated to make amends. The Bengals are the NFL’s second-most erratic team, according to Football Outsiders’ variance metric, meaning no single game should carry too much weight in evaluation.

Check below for all of this week’s picks, listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

Record: 53-41-2 (2-4 last week)

Lions plus-7.5 at Packers

Jaguars plus-9.5 at Texans

Chiefs minus-1 vs. Chargers

Eagles plus-2.5 at Giants

Rams plus-12.5 at Seahawks

49ers minus-6.5 vs. Cardinals

 

Taylor Bern

Record: 50-43-3 (3-3 last week)

Bengals plus-3.5 at Steelers

Colts minus-7 at Titans

Chiefs plus-1 vs. Chargers

Panthers plus-3 at Falcons

Vikings minus-6 vs. Bears

Cardinals plus-6.5 at 49ers

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

Record: 44-52 (1-5 last week)

Steelers minus-3.5 vs. Bengals

Colts minus-7 at Titans

Falcons minus-3 vs. Panthers

Bears plus-6 at Vikings

Chargers plus-1 at Chiefs

Eagles vs. Giants over 52

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy