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UFC on Fox 10 breakdown, betting odds and picks

Benson Henderson in accustomed spot heading into Chicago card

Image

Associated Press

Benson Henderson, center, celebrates with his finacee, Maria Magana, left, and his mother, Song Henderson, after defeating Gilbert Melendez in a UFC lightweight championship mixed martial arts fight in San Jose, Calif., Saturday, April 20, 2013. Henderson won by split decision to retain the championship. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)

Benson Henderson could rightfully declare himself as the face of UFC on Fox.

The former lightweight champion fights on the fourth network-television card of his career at UFC on Fox 10 Saturday in Chicago. Some of his best moments in the octagon came in front of the Fox cameras.

Henderson earned the right to challenge for the title in the co-main event of UFC on Fox 1, beating Clay Guida by unanimous decision. He went on to headline and successfully defend his belt against Nate Diaz and Gilbert Melendez on back-to-back Fox cards a year later, proposing to his then-girlfriend at the conclusion of the latter.

He looks to keep the perfect Fox streak up against Josh Thomson in Saturday’s main event. Like each of the previous three occasions, oddsmakers have Henderson as a solid favorite.

Current odds give Henderson approximately a 72 percent change to bounce back from his belt-surrendering loss to Anthony Pettis at UFC 164. At nearly the same clip, four of five members of the Sun’s prognostication panel like Henderson to defeat Thomson.

That includes ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield, who won last year’s picks contest by the largest margin ever. Kevin West, 2012 champion, has bowed out and taking his spot is fellow KSNV sports anchor Randy Howe.

Check below for a breakdown, betting odds and picks from Howe, Cofield (146-67 last year), ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (135-78), Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (138-75) and Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (136-77).

Josh Thomson

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 3-1
  • MMA record 20-5
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: +225

Benson Henderson

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 7-1
  • MMA record 19-3
  • Out of: Glendale, Ariz.
  • Betting line: -285

Lightweight Bout

Main Event

Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Nate Diaz at UFC on Fox 7.

Punch list: Thomson was next up to face Pettis, with their lightweight championship bout scheduled for UFC on Fox 9 Dec. 11. An injury to Pettis derailed the pairing and left Thomson needing to reprove his top-contender credentials against the deposed champion.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Thomson

Cofield: Henderson

Last fight: First-round submission loss to Anthony Pettis at UFC 164.

Punch list: As long as Pettis remains champion, it’s going to be difficult for Henderson to work his way into another title shot. “Smooth” has lost twice to the champion, but won’t let that stop him from continuing to go after the 155-pound division’s crown by facing the best like Thomson.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Henderson

Brewer: Henderson

Okamoto: Henderson

Gabriel Gonzaga

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Weight: 257
  • UFC record 11-6
  • MMA record 16-7
  • Out of: Ludlow, Mass.
  • Betting line: +190

Stipe Miocic

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 6’4”
  • Weight: 243
  • UFC record 4-1
  • MMA record 10-1
  • Out of: Euclid, Ohio
  • Betting line: -240

Heavyweight Bout

Co-Main Event

Last fight: Knocked out Shawn Jordan in the first roud at UFC 166.

Punch list: The UFC’s prodigal son, Gonzaga left the octagon for a year and returned markedly improved. The jiu-jitsu expert has won four of five fights since resigning with the UFC in early 2012 with each of the last two coming by first-round knockout.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Miocic

Cofield: Miocic

Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Roy Nelson at UFC 161.

Punch list: Miocic made a big move up the heavyweight ranks by upsetting Nelson, but he hasn’t been heard from in seven months since. He has other things to keep him occupied, as Miocic also works as a firefighter and paramedic in his hometown.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Miocic

Brewer: Miocic

Okamoto: Gonzaga

Adriano Martins

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 25-6
  • Out of: Manaus, Brazil
  • Betting line: +160

Donald Cerrone

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 156
  • UFC record 8-3
  • MMA record 21-6
  • Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
  • Betting line: -170

Lightweight Bout

Featured Contest

Last fight: Second-round submission victory over Daron Cruickshank at UFC Fight Night 32.

Punch list: It’s the chance of a career for Martins. Although the speedy veteran has won six fights in a row and fought professionally for 10 years, he’s never garnered much recognition. Cerrone is the most known opponent he’s ever faced.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Cerrone

Cofield: Cerrone

Last fight: Submitted Evan Dunham in the second round at UFC 167.

Punch list: “Cowboy” performed in this same slot on this same card in the same venue a year ago. He rode into that fight — against Pettis — on a wave momentum but went on to a have a mediocre 2013. Pettis beat him in the first round and Cerrone also dropped a decision to Rafael dos Anjos seven months later for the first 2-loss year of his career.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Cerrone

Brewer: Cerrone

Okamoto: Martins

Jeremy Stephens

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 9-8
  • MMA record 22-9
  • Out of: San Diego
  • Betting line: -145

Darren Elkins

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 7-2
  • MMA record 17-3
  • Out of: Hobart, Ind.
  • Betting line: +125

Featherweight Bout

Main Card Opener

Last fight: First-round knockout win over Rony Jason at UFC Fight Night 32.

Punch list: Based on his seven-year length of service, one would think Stephens’ career is winding down. But “Lil Heathen” has let a drop to featherweight reinvigorate him, as he’s 2-0 at 145 pounds after an 0-3 streak before the change.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Stephens

Cofield: Stephens

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Hatsu Hioki at UFC Fight Night 27.

Punch list: Get ready for the grind. Elkins does what he does exceedingly well even if it’s not the most entertaining strategy. The former lightweight overpowers opponents and imposes his well to take them to the ground and keep them there.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Stephens

Brewer: Elkins

Okamoto: Elkins

Sergio Pettis

  • Age: 20
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 1-0
  • MMA record 10-0
  • Out of: Milwaukee
  • Betting line: -200

Alex Caceres

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 4-3
  • MMA record 9-5
  • Out of: Miami
  • Betting line: +175

Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 Prelim

Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Will Campuzano at UFC 167.

Punch list: The UFC is putting its lightweight champion’s younger brother on the fast track. Sergio Pettis gets a two-month turnaround after living up to his considerable hype at the 20th anniversary card.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Pettis

Cofield: Pettis

Last fight: Split-decision victory over Roland Delorme at UFC 165.

Punch list: “Bruce Leeroy” has defined his time in the UFC by showing a mixture of significant promise and puzzling mistakes. He would enter on a four-fight win streak if not for a failed drug test following a win early last year, a second victory taken away from Caceres through personal mishaps.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Caceres

Brewer: Pettis

Okamoto: Caceres

Yves Jabouin

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 4-2
  • MMA record 19-8
  • Out of: Montreal
  • Betting line: +275

Eddie Wineland

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 5’7”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-3
  • MMA record 20-9
  • Out of: Chesterton, Ind.
  • Betting line: -340

Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 prelim

Last fight: Split-decision win over Dustin Pague at UFC 161.

Punch list: These are the types of fights the dynamic striker has found problems in. Jabouin consistently beats the average and below fighters, but has never broken through against a top-10 ranked foe.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Wineland

Cofield: Wineland

Last fight: Second-round TKO loss to Renan Barao at UFC 165.

Punch list: Wineland has fought no one but the best since joining the UFC, hence why his record looks unimpressive overall. Despite the quick dispatching by Barao, the elite remains a category where Wineland himself belongs.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Wineland

Brewer: Wineland

Okamoto: Wineland

Yaotzin Meza

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 20-8
  • Out of: Glendale, Ariz.
  • Betting line: +165

Chico Camus

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-1
  • MMA record 13-4
  • Out of: Milwaukee
  • Betting line: -190

Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 prelim

Last fight: Second-round submission win over John Albert at UFC on Fox 8.

Punch list: A teammate of Henderson at the MMA Lab, Meza showed distinct improvement in his second UFC fight. He never had a chance against Chad Mendes at featherweight, but rolled past Albert in his bantamweight debut.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Camus

Cofield: Camus

Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Kyung Ho Kang at UFC 164.

Punch list: A teammate of the Pettis brothers at Roufusport, Camus hopes the team’s penchant for striking leads him the ranks. It helped him narrowly edge his last fight, as a late upkick was the difference against Kang.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Meza

Brewer: Camus

Okamoto: Meza

Hugo Viana

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 2-1
  • MMA record 7-1
  • Out of: Salvador, Brazil
  • Betting line: -330

Junior Hernandez

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 135
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 14-5
  • Out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
  • Betting line: +270

Bantamweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 Prelim

Last fight: First-round TKO loss to T.J. Dillashaw at UFC on Fox 7.

Punch list: With a background in taekwondo, the veteran of the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” looks to turn his fights into striking matches. It worked out well for him in his official UFC debut, when he viciously knocked out Reuben Duran in the first round.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Hernandez

Cofield: Viana

Last fight: First-round submission loss to Lucas Martins at UFC Fight Night 28.

Punch list: Coming up under former UFC champion Pat Miletich, Hernandez exudes what most expect out of that team. He can wrestle and display a great deal of toughness.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Viana

Brewer:Viana

Okamoto: Hernandez

Mike Rio

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 1-2
  • MMA record 9-3
  • Out of: Miami
  • Betting line: +200

Daron Cruickshank

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 156
  • UFC record 3-2
  • MMA record 13-4
  • Out of: Wayne, Mich.
  • Betting line: -240

Lightweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 Prelim

Last fight: First-round submission loss to Tony Ferguson at UFC 166.

Punch list: Rio is the wrestler, always looking to take opponents down to the ground. He had a storied college career, winning two NAIA national championships at Lindenwood University.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

West: Cruickshank

Cofield: Cruickshank

Last fight: Second-round submission loss to Adriano Martins at UFC Fight Night 32.

Punch list: This is a matchup of two “The Ultimate Fighter: Live” graduates with differing game plans. Cruickshank is the striker, having practiced taekwondo and boxing since he was a young child.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Cruickshank

Brewer: Cruickshank

Okamoto: Cruickshank

George Sullivan

  • Age: 34
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 169
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 14-3
  • Out of: Belmar, N.J.
  • Betting line: +200

Mike Rhodes

  • Age: 24
  • Height: 6’1”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 6-1
  • Out of: Milwaukee
  • Betting line: -250

Welterweight Bout

Fox Sports 1 Prelim

Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Jesus Martinez at Cage Fury Fighting Championships 26.

Punch list: It won’t take much for Sullivan steal the praise heaped upon Rhodes. He just needs to continue what he’s done over the last two years, which consists of five wins and four knockouts.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Rhodes

Cofield: Rhodes

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Alan Jouban at Resurrection Fighting Alliance 10.

Punch list: Out of the two prospects matched in here, Rhodes is the more heralded. The Duke Roufus-trained striker held the RFA championship belt before accepting a contract with the UFC.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Rhodes

Brewer: Rhodes

Okamoto: Sullivan

Nikita Krylov

  • Age: 21
  • Height: 6’3”
  • Weight: 245
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 15-3
  • Out of: Donetsk, Ukraine
  • Betting line: +330

Walt Harris

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6’4”
  • Weight: 244
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 5-2
  • Out of: Homewood, Ala.
  • Betting line: -390

Heavyweight Bout

Facebook Prelim

Last fight: Third-round TKO loss to Soa Palelei at UFC 164.

Punch list: “The Al Capone’s” first impression went even worse. UFC President Dana White said his fight against Palelei was one of the worst in UFC history, so the Ukranian will have his work cut out for him in winning back over the skeptics.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Harris

Cofield: Harris

Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Jared Rosholt at “The Ultimate Fighter” 18 finale.

Punch list: “The Big Ticket’s” UFC debut didn’t go according to plan. Although Harris hurt Rosholt with shots early, he couldn’t escape takedown attempts in the second half of the fight to stay in control.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Harris

Brewer: Harris

Okamoto: Harris

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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