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Jose Aldo, from Brazil, right, and Chan Sung Jung, from South Korea, battle during their UFC 163 mixed martial arts Featherweight Championship bout in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Sunday, Aug. 4, 2013. (AP Photo/Felipe Dana)
Friday, Jan. 31, 2014 | 2 a.m.
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Although the UFC is popularly referred to as going through a state of flux at the moment, seven straight title fights have ended with champions retaining their belts.
Most expect that streak to extend to nine before Super Bowl Sunday. Featherweight champion Jose Aldo and bantamweight counterpart Renan Barao are pricey favorites to defend their thrones against Ricardo Lamas and Urijah Faber, respectively, Saturday at the Prudential Center in Newark, N.J.
Current sports book odds calculate to an approximately 64 percent chance that neither the bantamweight belt nor the featherweight strap swap waists at UFC 169, this year’s version of the annual Super Bowl weekend card.
The Sun’s picks panel collectively buys into the champions’ chances too. Faber and Lamas only drew one selection apiece — from the same person, nonetheless — from our five prognosticators.
Check below for a breakdown, odds and picks from the Sun’s Case Keefer (8-3 year to date), ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (8-3), the Sun’s Ray Brewer (7-4), KSNV’s Randy Howe (6-5) and ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (5-6) on every fight.
Urijah Faber
- Age: 34
- Height: 5’6”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 6-2
- MMA record 30-6
- Out of: Sacramento, Calif.
- Betting line: +240
Renan Barao
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’7”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 6-0
- MMA record 31-1
- Out of: Rio de Janeiro
- Betting line: -280
Bantamweight Championship Bout
Main Event
Last fight: Second-round submission victory over Michael McDonald at UFC on Fox 9.
Punch list: The upside: “The California Kid” is one of the all-time great fighters in the smaller weight classes and has never lost in a non-title fight. The downside: Faber has lost five straight title fights, including a rather lopsided unanimous-decision to Barao in July 2012.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Faber
Cofield: Barao
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Eddie Wineland at UFC 165.
Punch list: The upside: “Pegado” is on one of the most impressive runs in all of sports, winning 31 straight fights dating back to 2005. The downside: Blindly grasping at something here, but he’s been unable to connect with the majority of fans to this point and hasn’t built the stature his record entitles.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Barao
Brewer: Barao
Okamoto: Barao
Ricardo Lamas
- Age: 31
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 4-0
- MMA record 14-2
- Out of: Miami
- Betting line: +475
Jose Aldo
- Age: 27
- Height: 5’7”
- Weight: 145
- UFC record 5-0
- MMA record 23-2
- Out of: Rio de Janeiro
- Betting line: -650
Featherweight Championship Bout
Co-Main Event
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Erik Koch at UFC on Fox 6.
Punch list: The upside: “The Bully” has proven himself as one of the most vicious and well-rounded 145-pound fighters in the world with two TKOs, a submission and a decision The downside: Lamas hasn’t found in more than a year while waiting for this opportunity, which could leave him rusty.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Lamas
Cofield: Aldo
Last fight: Fourth-round TKO victory over “The Korean Zombie” Chan Sung Jung at UFC 163.
Punch list: The upside: Although currently ranked second in the pound-for-pound list, Aldo has an argument for No. 1 with 10 straight wins over the top competition in title fights. The downside: Aldo tends to get off to build a lead and cruise from there, not going after opponents with the same urgency throughout an entire fight.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Aldo
Brewer: Aldo
Okamoto: Aldo
Alistair Overeem
- Age: 33
- Height: 6’4”
- Weight: 255.5
- UFC record 1-2
- MMA record 36-13
- Out of: Amsterdam
- Betting line: -320
Frank Mir
- Age: 34
- Height: 6’3”
- Weight: 248
- UFC record 14-8
- MMA record 16-8
- Out of: Las Vegas
- Betting line: +260
Heavyweight Bout
Featured Contest
Last fight: First-round knockout loss against Travis Browne at UFC Fight Night 26.
Punch list: The upside: Overeem is a physical specimen who can kickbox with any heavyweight in combat sports. The downside: He’s dropped two in a row, showing a scary tendency of not taking punches well with back-to-back knockout defeats.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Overeem
Cofield: Overeem
Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Josh Barnett at UFC 164.
Punch list: The upside: One of the most decorated heavyweights in the history of the UFC, Mir is a former champion and has accomplished more than the vast majority of fighters dream. The downside: It looks like his stint at the top of the division is over with three straight lopsided losses.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Overeem
Brewer: Overeem
Okamoto: Overeem
Ali Bagautinov
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’4”
- Weight: 126
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 12-2
- Out of: Dagestan Republic, Russia
- Betting line: -140
John Lineker
- Age: 24
- Height: 5’2”
- Weight: 128
- UFC record 4-1
- MMA record 23-6
- Out of: Paranagua, Brazil
- Betting line: +120
Flyweight Bout
Pay-Per-View Fight
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Tim Elliott at UFC 167.
Punch list: The upside: The Greg Jackson-trained fighter rides a major surge after upsetting Elliott in the opening pay-per-view bout of the 20th anniversary card. The downside: Every fight from here on projects as the toughest of his career, as his competition level hasn’t been stout.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Bagautinov
Cofield: Bagautinov
Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Phil Harris at UFC Fight Night 30.
Punch list: The upside: The memory of a rough UFC debut is distant now after Lineker reeled off four wins in a row. The downside: He’s missed weight in three of five fights in the octagon, an occurrence the UFC typically won’t tolerate for long.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Lineker
Brewer: Lineker
Okamoto: Bagautinov
Abel Trujillo
- Age: 30
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 2-1
- MMA record 11-5
- Out of: Des Moines, Iowa
- Betting line: +125
Jamie Varner
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 3-2
- MMA record 21-8
- Out of: Glendale, Ariz.
- Betting line: -145
Lightweight Bout
Main Card Opener
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Roger Bowling at UFC on Fox 9.
Punch list: The upside: With a wrestling background and two straight wins by knockout, Trujillo has proven himself to be well-rounded. The downside: His submission defense isn’t the most fluid and he’s shown a tendency to gas out.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Varner
Cofield: Varner
Last fight: Split-decision loss to Gleison Tibau at UFC 164.
Punch list: The upside: The former WEC champion has resurrected his career in the UFC with several exciting bouts. The downside: Varner tends to take too much punishment and found himself down early needing a comeback in each of his last two fights.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Trujillo
Brewer: Varner
Okamoto: Varner
Alan Patrick
- Age: 30
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 11-0
- Out of: Manaus, Brazil
- Betting line: +140
John Makdessi
- Age: 28
- Height: 5’7”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 1-0
- MMA record 12-2
- Out of: Montreal
- Betting line: -160
Lightweight Bout
Fox Sports 1 prelim
Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Garrett Whiteley at UFC Fight Night 29.
Punch list: The upside: Well, he’s never lost, which sounds like a good place to start. The downside: The emotion of a fighter stepping into his first big-time bout on a major card is always a variable.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Makdessi
Cofield: Makdessi
Last fight: Knocked out Renee Forte in the first round at UFC 165.
Punch list: The upside: As seen in his two-minute dispatching of Fortee four months ago, Makdessi can be a flashy and deadly striker. The downside: Sometimes, he’s tentative to engage and allows opponents to get into a rhythm.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Makdessi
Brewer: Makdessi
Okamoto: Makdessi
Danny Martinez
- Age: 26
- Height: 5’5”
- Weight: 125
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 16-4
- Out of: San Diego
- Betting line: +130
Chris Cariaso
- Age: 32
- Height: 5’3”
- Weight: 125
- UFC record 5-3
- MMA record 15-5
- Out of: San Francisco
- Betting line: -150
Flyweight Bout
Fox Sports 1 prelim
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Ian Dela Cuesta at Coalition of Combat Free 4 All.
Punch list: The upside Always need to see an infusion of new talent into the 125-pound division, especially someone who’s earned their way with three straight wins. The downside: “The Gremlin” hasn’t come close against the three UFC-caliber fighters he encountered throughout his career — Joseph Benavidez, Jussier Formiga and Mark Hominick.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Martinez
Cofield: Cariaso
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Iliarde Santos at UFC Fight Night 29.
Punch list: The upside: “Kamikaze” can always be counted on to live up to his nickname and bring a frenzy of action to whomever he’s fighting. The downside: At this point, it’s clear Cariaso is a solid but unspectacular fighter as he’s fallen short whenever given a big step-up in competition.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Cariaso
Brewer: Martinez
Okamoto: Martinez
Tom Watson
- Age: 31
- Height: 6’1”
- Weight: 186
- UFC record 1-2
- MMA record 16-6
- Out of: Orange County, Calif.
- Betting line: -190
Nick Catone
- Age: 32
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 3-4
- MMA record 9-4
- Out of: Brick Township, N.J.
- Betting line: +170
Middleweight Bout
Fox Sports 1 Prelim
Last fight: Unanimous-decision defeat against Thales Leites at UFC 163.
Punch list: The upside: A big personality has enabled “Kong” to build a fanbase despite only once appearing on a main card. The downside: He doesn’t always have the fighting chops to match his profile as he’s looked sluggish through a year-and-a-half in the UFC.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Catone
Cofield: Watson
Last fight: Second-round submission loss to T.J. Waldburger at “The Ultimate Fighter” 16 finale.
Punch list: The upside: A burly welterweight wrestler, Catone must be one of the strongest fighters in the division. The downside: He might also be one of the slowest, as Waldburger simply looked more athletic in Catone’s 170-pound debut.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Watson
Brewer:Watson
Okamoto: Watson
Kevin Lee
- Age: 21
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 156
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 7-0
- Out of: Detroit
- Betting line: +210
Al Iaquinta
- Age: 23
- Height: 5’8”
- Weight: 135
- UFC record 3-1
- MMA record 13-5
- Out of: Garden City, N.Y.
- Betting line: -250
Lightweight Bout
Fox Sports 1 Prelim
Last fight: Submitted Eric Moon in the first round at Total Warrior Combat 20.
Punch list: The upside: As his nickname hints, “The Motown Phenom” has a fair amount of hype behind his debut. The downside: It’s always impossible to know how regional-circuit success will translate to the octagon.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Lee
Cofield: Iaquinta
Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Piotr Hallmann at UFC Fight Night 30.
Punch list: The upside: Iaquinta has shown flashes of something special ever since his time on “The Ultimate Fighter: Live”. The downside: He’s gotten caught in submissions in two of his last four fights, which happens to be Lee’s domain.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Iaquinta
Brewer: Iaquinta
Okamoto: Iaquinta
Andy Enz
- Age: 22
- Height: 6’3”
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 8-0
- Out of: Anchorage, Alaska
- Betting line: +165
Clint Hester
- Age: 27
- Height: 6’2”
- Weight: 185
- UFC record 2-0
- MMA record 9-3
- Out of: Atlanta
- Betting line: -185
Middleweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Dylan Andrews at UFC Fight Night 33.
Punch list: The upside: Hester is one of the strongest fighters in the division and able to use his physicality to throw anyone around. The downside: Technique isn’t his strong suit as Hester remains raw after less than five years of fighting experience.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Enz
Cofield: Hester
Last fight: First-round submission victory over Mike Fannon at Alaska Fighting Championships 101.
Punch list: The upside: He’s gotten five first-round submissions in seven career fights. The downside: Enz flamed out of his only other shot at the big time, losing to Uriah Hall for a spot in “The Ultimate Fighter” 17 house.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Hester
Brewer: Hester
Okamoto: Hester
Rashid Magomedov
- Age: 29
- Height: 5’9”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 15-1
- Out of: Dagestan, Russia
- Betting line: -245
Tony Martin
- Age: 24
- Height: 6’0”
- Weight: 155
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 8-0
- Out of: St. Cloud, Minn.
- Betting line: +205
Lightweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Alexander Yakovlev at M1 Challenge 35.
Punch list: The upside: Magomedov has won eight straight fighting decent competition in Russia’s most well known mixed martial arts promotion. The downside: He’s done it at welterweight mean he’ll need to successfully negotiate a tough weight cut to stay sharp for his UFC career.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Magomedov
Cofield: Magomedov
Last fight: Submitted Thomas Gifford in the second round at 3 River Throwdown 4.
Punch list: The upside: He’s hardly encountered any trouble through eight professional fights, looking like a UFC-caliber fighter while racking up wins. The downside: He’s hardly encountered any trouble through eight professional fights, meaning adversity will be a new phenomenon on the sport’s biggest stage.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Martin
Brewer: Magomedov
Okamoto: Magomedov
Gasan Umalatov
- Age: 31
- Height: 5’11”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 0-0
- MMA record 14-2-1
- Out of: Zinzeli, Russia
- Betting line: -180
Neil Magny
- Age: 26
- Height: 6’3”
- Weight: 170
- UFC record 1-2
- MMA record 8-4
- Out of: Denver
- Betting line: +160
Welterweight Bout
UFC Fight Pass Prelim
Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Gregor Herb at Battle of Moscow 12.
Punch list: The upside: A great grappler, Umalatov has seven career wins by submission. The downside: Most fighters ride a winning streak into the UFC, but “Cobra” is just one fight removed from a defeat.
Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio
Howe: Umalatov
Cofield: Umalatov
Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Seth Baczynski at UFC Fight For The Troops 3.
Punch list: The upside: The UFC sees something in Magny to keep him around after two consecutive losses. The downside: Potential won’t matter if he loses another, as a cut will be imminent.
Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com
Keefer: Umalatov
Brewer: Umalatov
Okamoto: Umalatov
Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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