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UFC on Fox 12 breakdown, betting odds and picks

Matt Brown has repeatedly rewarded bettors

Image

Associated Press

Matt Brown, right, punches Mike Swick in the second round during a welterweight mixed martial arts bout at a UFC on FOX event in Seattle, Saturday, Dec. 8, 2012. Brown won by knockout in the second round.

If someone bet $100 on Matt Brown seven fights ago and continually rolled the winnings over to “The Immortal’s” following bouts, the gambler would now have more than $25,000.

The combined odds have given Brown less than a 0.5 percent chance of getting to where he finds himself Saturday after a seven-fight winning streak. The odds have continually underestimated the UFC’s consummate underdog as he’s fought his way toward a welterweight title shot.

Brown will enter as the underdog for the fifth time in eight bouts in the main event of UFC on Fox 12 on Saturday in San Jose, Calif., against Robbie Lawler. Brown is installed as a plus-275 (risking $1 to win $2.75) underdog, the second-largest of his current run, with Lawler coming back at minus-350 (risking $3.50 to win $1).

The Las Vegas Sun picks panel hasn’t learned its lesson about picking against Brown. All five prognosticators went against Brown at UFC on Fox 12, one of three fights they picked unanimously on the main card.

Check below for picks on all 12 fights from ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (70-33 year to date), ESPN.com’s Brett Okamoto (65-38), Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (65-38), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (62-41) and KSNV’s Randy Howe (53-50) along with betting odds and a breakdown of the card.

Matt Brown

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 12-5
  • MMA record 19-11
  • Out of: Columbus, Ohio
  • Betting line: +275

Robbie Lawler

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 171
  • UFC record 8-4
  • MMA record 23-10
  • Out of: Coconut Creek, Fla.
  • Betting line: -350

Welterweight Title Eliminator

Main Event

Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Erick Silva at UFC Fight Night 40.

Punch list: “The Immortal” can finish too, with 89 percent of his wins coming by stoppage. Once considered a mediocre roster-filler, Brown has left those days behind with a seven-fight win streak that includes six knockouts.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Lawler

Cofield: Lawler

Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Jake Ellenberger at UFC 173.

Punch list: “Ruthless” is a finisher with 19 knockouts and a submission in 23 career victories. Once considered past his prime, Lawler has silenced those whispers with his latest run in the UFC that’s included three knockouts and a close decision loss to champion Johny Hendricks.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Lawler

Brewer: Lawler

Okamoto: Lawler

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira

  • Age: 38
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 4-2
  • MMA record 21-5
  • Out of: Gardena, Calif.
  • Betting line: +385

Anthony Johnson

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 8-4
  • MMA record 17-4
  • Out of: Boca Raton, Fla.
  • Betting line: -485

Light Heavyweight Bout

Co-Main Event

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Rashad Evans at UFC 156.

Punch list: “Lil Nog” stunted the considerable momentum he created by stunning Evans with injuries that have left him sidelined for the past year and a half. Age-wise, it would seem he’s wrapping up his career, but the smaller Nogueira brother has proved everyone wrong before.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Johnson

Cofield: Johnson

Last fight: Unanimous-decision win over Phil Davis at UFC 172.

Punch list: “Rumble” is adamant he’s several fights away from earning a title shot in his new division. If he can add a second straight impressive victory to his UFC return, it begs to be seen whether the promotion is that patient.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Johnson

Brewer: Johnson

Okamoto: Johnson

Dennis Bermudez

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’6”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 6-1
  • MMA record 13-3
  • Out of: Farmingdale, N.Y.
  • Betting line: -150

Clay Guida

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 5’7”
  • Weight: 146
  • UFC record 11-8
  • MMA record 31-14
  • Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
  • Betting line: +130

Featherweight Bout

Featured Contest

Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Jimy Hettes at UFC 171.

Punch list: “The Menace” used to rely heavily on his background as an All-American college wrestler. No longer. Bermudez has honed his striking to a level where it’s the focal point of his game.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Bermudez

Cofield: Bermudez

Last fight: Unanimous-decision victory over Tatsuya Kawajiri at UFC Fight Night 39.

Punch list: “The Carpenter” believes he has run in him at featherweight, where he fights for the fourth time against Bermudez. Just 2-3 in his past five fights, the octagon mainstay will need to rediscover his previous consistency for his goal to happen.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Guida

Brewer: Bermudez

Okamoto: Guida

Bobby Green

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 3-0
  • MMA record 22-5
  • Out of: Fontana, Calif.
  • Betting line: +200

Josh Thomson

  • Age: 35
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 3-2
  • MMA record 20-6
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: -240

Lightweight Bout

Main Card Opener

Last fight: Beat Pat Healy by unanimous decision at UFC on Fox 10.

Punch list: “King” took this fight on two weeks’ notice when Michael Johnson came down with an injury. Luckily, he was already training to compete as he was scheduled to face Abel Trujillo at the canceled UFC 176 event.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Thomson

Cofield: Thomson

Last fight: Lost to Benson Henderson by split decision at UFC on Fox 11.

Punch list: “The Punk” briefly considered retirement after losing his chance at a title shot in the controversial Henderson decision. But he couldn’t shake the feeling that he had something left to achieve in the octagon.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Thomson

Brewer: Thomson

Okamoto: Thomson

Daron Cruickshank

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 156
  • UFC record 5-2
  • MMA record 15-4
  • Out of: Wayne, Mich.
  • Betting line: +190

Jorge Masvidal

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 5’8”
  • Weight: 156
  • UFC record 3-1
  • MMA record 26-8
  • Out of: Miami
  • Betting line: -220

Lightweight Bout

Fox Prelim

Last fight: Defeated Erik Koch by first-round knockout at UFC Fight Night 40.

Punch list: Cruickshank won’t back down from anyone on the feet. A second-degree taekwondo black belt, “the Detroit Superstar” has scored acrobatic kick knockouts in each of his past two fights.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Masvidal

Cofield: Masvidal

Last fight: Beat Pat Healy via unanimous decision at UFC on Fox 11.

Punch list: Prepare for a striking showcase. Masvidal is a technical and powerful boxer and kickboxer and loves nothing more than someone willing to stand with him.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Masvidal

Brewer: Masvidal

Okamoto: Cruickshank

Patrick Cummins

  • Age: 33
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 1-1
  • MMA record 5-1
  • Out of: Dana Point, Calif.
  • Betting line: -140

Kyle Kingsbury

  • Age: 32
  • Height: 6’4”
  • Weight: 205
  • UFC record 4-4
  • MMA record 11-5
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: +120

Light Heavyweight Bout

Fox Prelim

Last fight: Second-round TKO victory over Roger Narvaez at UFC Fight Night 42.

Punch list: After infamously fighting Daniel Cormier on a week’s notice, Cummins earned his spot in the UFC by routing Narvaez. A Reign MMA product, Cummins is known to have transcendent training sessions that hint at his potential.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Kingsbury

Cofield: Cummins

Last fight: Second-round TKO loss to Jimi Manuwa at UFC on Fuel TV 5.

Punch list: Gone for two years as he pondered his future, Kingsbury returns to the octagon with a distant-feeling three-fight losing streak. A member of American Kickboxing Academy, Kingsbury should be well-prepared even with the extensive time off.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Kingsbury

Brewer: Kingsbury

Okamoto: Cummins

Tim Means

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 6’2”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 2-3
  • MMA record 20-6-1
  • Out of: Albuquerque, N.M.
  • Betting line: -260

Hermani Perpetuo

  • Age: 29
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 17-4
  • Out of: Rio de Janeiro
  • Betting line: +215

Welterweight Bout

Fox Prelim

Last fight: Unanimous-decision loss to Neil Magny at UFC Fight Night 40.

Punch list: Means is just hanging on in the UFC, but it’s amazing he’s stuck around this long given his background. Before finding mixed martial arts, Means spent time in prison on drug-related offenses.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Means

Cofield: Means

Last fight: Split-decision loss to Jordan Mein at UFC on Fox 11.

Punch list: Owner of a law degree, Perpetuo shoved a potentially lucrative career to chase his passion in mixed martial arts. He trains at Nova Uniao, one of the top gyms in the sport.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Means

Brewer: Means

Okamoto: Perpetuo

Brian Ortega

  • Age: 23
  • Height: 5’”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 8-0
  • Out of: Torrance, Calif.
  • Betting line: -145

Mike De La Torre

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 12-4
  • Out of: Glendale, Ariz.
  • Betting line: +125

Featherweight Bout

Fox Prelim

Last fight: Split-decision win over Keoni Koch at Resurrection Fighting Alliance 12.

Punch list: A fixture at the Gracie family compound in Southern California, Ortega is a feared Brazilian jiujitsu player. He has four submission victories, including two in his past three fights.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: De La Torre

Cofield: Ortega

Last fight: Split-decision loss to Mark Bocek at “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” finale.

Punch list: De La Torre made the most of a tough debut matchup, pushing the veteran Bocek in a close fight. He’s a well-rounded fighter who initially got into mixed martial arts just to stay in shape.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Ortega

Brewer:De La Torre

Okamoto: De La Torre

Tiago dos Santos

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 18-4
  • Out of: Laranjal Do Jari, Brazil
  • Betting line: -200

Akbarh Arreola

  • Age: 31
  • Height: 5’10”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 22-7-1
  • Out of: Tijuana, Mexico
  • Betting line: +170

Lightweight Bout

UFC Fight Pass Prelim

Last fight: Third-round TKO victory over Ary Santos at Jungle Fight 65.

Punch list: “Trator” has no relation to former heavyweight champion Junior dos Santos, though he does also train with Team Nogueira. Like the Nogueira brothers, dos Santos feels most comfortable boxing and rolling.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: dos Santos

Cofield: dos Santos

Last fight: Submitted Alejandro Rodriguez at Costa Rica MMA 1.

Punch list: “El Cabarello” has no relation to current boxing heavyweight champion Chris Arreola. He’d rather grapple anyway with 16 victories by submission including his past three fights in a row.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: dos Santos

Brewer: dos Santos

Okamoto: Arreola

Noad Lahat

  • Age: 30
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 145
  • UFC record 0-1
  • MMA record 7-1
  • Out of: San Jose, Calif.
  • Betting line: +210

Steven Siler

  • Age: 27
  • Height: 6’0”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 5-3
  • MMA record 23-12
  • Out of: Orem, Utah
  • Betting line: -250

Featherweight Bout

UFC Fight Pass Prelim

Last fight: First-round knockout loss against Godofredo Pepey at UFC Fight Night 38.

Punch list: One of only two Israelis to ever fight in the UFC, Lahat spent time in his native country’s military before winding up at American Kickboxing Academy to dive into mixed martial arts. He’s done judo since he was a child.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Siler

Cofield: Siler

Last fight: First-round TKO loss to Rony Jason at UFC Fight Night 38.

Punch list: One of the glut of fighters who stuck from the cast of “The Ultimate Fighter” 14, Siler is now fighting to protect his job with two straight losses. He holds notable wins over Cole Miller and Mike Brown.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Siler

Brewer: Siler

Okamoto: Siler

Gilbert Burns

  • Age: 28
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 155
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 7-0
  • Out of: Delray Beach, Fla.
  • Betting line: -170

Andreas Stahl

  • Age: 26
  • Height: 5’11”
  • Weight: 170
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 9-0
  • Out of: Umea, Sweden
  • Betting line: +150

Welterweight Bout

UFC Fight Pass Prelim

Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Paulo Teixeira at Face To Face 7.

Punch list: None of Burns’ fights has ever gone to the judges. In fact, the longtime Vitor Belfort training partner has never even let an opponent escape out of the first round.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Burns

Cofield: Burns

Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Veeslin Dimitrov at EMMA 6: The Real Deal.

Punch list: The part-time mechanic grew up wrestling, and the desire to try something new led him to mixed martial arts. He’s finished his past two opponents, one by knockout and one by submission.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Burns

Brewer: Stahl

Okamoto: Burns

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

  • Age: 26
  • Height: 5’5”
  • Weight: 115
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 6-0
  • Out of: Olsztyn, Poland
  • Betting line: +130

Juliana Lima

  • Age: 25
  • Height: 5’9”
  • Weight: 115
  • UFC record 0-0
  • MMA record 6-1
  • Out of: Belo Horizonte, Brazil
  • Betting line: -150

Women’s Strawweight Bout

UFC Fight Pass Prelim

Last fight: Knocked out Rosi Sexton at Cage Warriors Fighting Championship 69.

Punch list: A four-time European muay thai champion, no one in the new weight class will want to mix it up on the feet with Jedrzejczyk. She transitioned to MMA two years ago and has scored two knockouts.

Picks: KSNV and ESPN Radio

Howe: Jedrzejczyk

Cofield: Jedrzejczyk

Last fight: First-round TKO victory over Lillani Trolezi at Brazil Fight 7.

Punch list: Lima has worked outside of fighting most of her adult life, both as a tourismologist and account executive. She quickly became fond of both grappling — she counts the guillotine as her favorite move in MMA — and striking — she has two knockout victories.

Picks: Las Vegas Sun and ESPN.com

Keefer: Lima

Brewer: Jedrzejczyk

Okamoto: Jedrzejczyk

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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