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December 19, 2014

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sports betting:

Vegas Play of the Day: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants

Here’s the latest installment of the Play of the Day, which uses odds from the South Point. Our three sports writers started with a $10,000 bankroll — fictional, of course.

San Francisco Giants minus-1.5 runs (plus-140) against Pittsburgh Pirates: $400 to win $560

I think I’ve used this logic previously to talk myself into a run-line pick in the Las Vegas Play of the Day. Just like then, I don’t know that this actually means anything and am actually more confident that it doesn’t, but when the Giants win with Madison Bumgarner on the mound, they almost always win by two or more.

Bumgarner (12-7) is having a solid season for the second-place Giants. He’s got a 3.19 ERA, a 1.21 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 141 innings. San Francisco is on a four-game losing streak but its last win was Bumgarner’s last start. As you might have guessed, the Giants won that game by two.

Two of Bumgarner’s first three starts this season resulted in one-run Giants victories. Since then, every time he’s on the hill and San Francisco wins the margin is multiple runs, usually three or four.

Like I said up top, this is probably all random and circumstantial. The Giants have also lost several games that Bumgarner has started, and those have been a decent mix of the offense not scoring enough and Bumgarner getting lit up.

But never mind all that. Sometimes I like to go with my gut, and Bumgarner should be good enough to give the Giants at least a chance at a two- or three-run victory.

Standings: Bern (40-26-1, $14,634), Keefer (32-36, $9,146), Brewer (28-37-3, $3,955)

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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