Nevada voters get a brief break from out-of-state campaign ads

By Amber Phillips

Sunday, Nov. 2, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Toward the end of the 2012 election, Nevadans couldn’t turn on their televisions without seeing back-to-back political ads.

Voters in this swing state were bombarded by presidential ads. Republican Sen. Dean Heller and Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley battled it out in an ugly Senate race, and two House candidates faced tough re-elections.

The 2010 election was just as ad-heavy. Outside groups spent $14 million on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s tight race against Republican Sharron Angle, much of that to try to defeat Reid.

Across the country, spending by outside groups has been on the rise since a 2010 Supreme Court ruling allowed people and corporations to make unlimited contributions to outside groups.

But this year in Nevada, you’ll have to look hard to find a political ad by an outside group. There’s no presidential race, no U.S. Senate race, and for the most part, all four House districts are uncontested. There’s not even a competitive governor’s race.

“It’s like the most boring election cycle in recent memory,” said GOP strategist Pete Ernaut, although surprise Republican turnout in early voting has made it more exciting.

That means most outside groups are spending elsewhere. By the end of this election cycle, political action committees are expected to have spent an eyebrow-raising $900 million across the nation to try to sway voters in federal races. About 98 percent of that is staying out of Nevada.​

Do negative ads work?

Conventional wisdom says they do; otherwise, campaigns wouldn’t spend hundreds of millions of dollars on them.

The amount spent on negative ads in Nevada during the past two election cycles far outweighs the amount spent on positive ads.

But an analysis of negative ad spending in some of Nevada’s highest-profile races shows a surprising result. Winning candidates in five federal races from 2010 and 2012 had more negative ads against them than their opponents.

That pattern looks likely to hold in 2014.

Enjoy the silence

The brief respite from political ads won’t last. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is up for re-election in 2016, and Republicans are making him their top target. It’s also a presidential year, and Nevada is an early caucus state for both parties.

The one exception

Unexpectedly, the biggest influx of outside money in Nevada would land in the sleepy 4th District.

Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford is running for a second term representing North Las Vegas and central Nevada. His Republican challenger, Assemblyman Cresent Hardy, is gaffe-prone and in debt.

But two weeks before Election Day, political action committee Crossroads GPS made a late-October play, promising $822,000 worth of negative television ads about Horsford. The Karl Rove-affiliated PAC has been a big player in past Nevada elections.

Crossroads’ latest effort could influence the race.

Heck’s secret code

Rep. Joe Heck’s campaign team in March uploaded a video to his Heck4Nevada YouTube channel labeled “Heck footage.” The two-minute clip has no sound and features the District 3 Republican walking in a park with his family, jumping into an ambulance to help a patient and folding his arms confidently in front of a Nevada sunset.

The message was clear: Hey, outside groups, feel free to use this high-quality footage to make an ad supporting us.

Political campaigns are prohibited from working with outside groups, but posting footage is a way to get around the rule.

In Heck’s case, the footage hasn’t been needed. Outside groups have largely stayed out of his race because they don’t perceive Heck’s challenger, Democrat Erin Bilbray, as a serious threat.