Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Rebels Football:

Take 5: Diagnosing the most likely outcomes of UNLV’s trip to San Jose State

UNLV vs. San Jose State - Nov. 2, 2013

Sam Morris / Las Vegas Sun

UNLV wide receiver Marcus Sullivan tries to fight off San Jose State cornerback Damon Ogburn Jr. Saturday, Nov. 2, 2013 at Sam Boyd Stadium. San Jose State won the game 34-24.

The Rebel Room

What Would You Do?

Las Vegas Sun sports writers Ray Brewer, Case Keefer and Taylor Bern play armchair quarterback on UNLV's in-game situations and the future at quarterback.

The Rebels’ road show continues this weekend at San Jose State (1-3, 0-1), where UNLV (1-4, 0-1) plays its third consecutive game away from Sam Boyd Stadium. Of course, it’s not like home has been much better this year.

The Rebels enter Saturday’s game, which kicks off at 5:02 p.m. and airs on ESPNews, with one one-point victory against a team that lost its past two games by an average of 32 points. The good news is San Jose State is also on a three-game losing streak, although the Spartans’ performances have left much more to build on than the Rebels’.

The actual games often provide storylines we never saw coming, but heading into this Mountain West matchup here are the likely outcomes for an SJSU victory, a couple of possible routes to an upset and what either result will mean for the Rebels going forward:

1. San Jose State takes turnover battle by at least two and wins by a comfortable two touchdowns

The Spartans defense comes into Saturday off back-to-back games in which it held the opponent to fewer than 100 yards passing. Not only that, UNR’s offense went 0-for-9 on third-down attempts in a game San Jose State only lost because of fourth-quarter turnovers.

UNLV coach Bobby Hauck pointed to SJSU’s secondary as its strength. Against an offense that’s inconsistent at best, that’s a huge advantage for the home team. This outcome, and specifically that matchup, is the main reason the Rebels are getting about 10 points against a team that’s also on a three-game losing streak.

2. Spartans’ offense struggles but puts together two key drives in the fourth quarter to hold on

In three games against Football Championship Subdivision competition, the Spartans are scoring an average of 10 points a game. That’s downright awful, though the opposing defenses have been better than what the Spartans will face Saturday.

Still, it’s possible that SJSU’s scoring problem is more about the Spartans than their opponents. Even if that happens, it’s likely that it would only take a solid finish to end up on the right side.

3. Rebels get two scores from their defense/special teams, and quarterback Blake Decker has first game without an interception

These are the two things that UNLV needs most to get a victory. First, it needs Decker to stop giving the ball away. He already has nine interceptions spread out over five games, which really takes the shine off his 245.8 passing yards per game (third most in the league).

And to help the offense along, the Rebels need at least two scores — 10 to 14 points — either scored or directly set up by the defense or special teams. The defenders been trotted back out after enough fizzled offensive drives to know that if they want the offense to get some momentum, the defense might have to create it.

4. UNLV scores touchdown on first drive and never looks back, winning by 10

No one should be expecting this one, but we’ve seen UNLV’s offense come out with a solid offensive drive to start the game enough times now to see the Rebels know what they’re doing at least a little bit. What if that just held?

5. What either result means for UNLV

An upset victory Saturday could legitimately turn this season around for the Rebels. It’s said every week, but the Mountain West is so bad overall that almost any game is winnable. And with Fresno State coming to Sam Boyd Stadium next Friday night, this presents a great opportunity to actually get above .500 (2-1) in league play.

The problem with that narrative is that UNLV hasn’t shown signs in any of the game’s three phases to suggest the Rebels can make game-winning plays. There are sparks and a few highlights, but nothing consistent except the negative plays.

Basically, UNLV is back to the point where you have to see it to believe it, and failing to come through this weekend would only strengthen that idea.

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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