Dark money could be election’s October surprise

By Amber Phillips

Monday, Oct. 20, 2014 | 9:31 a.m.

Editor's note: This is part of a weekly series, Senate Showdown, in which the Las Vegas Sun politics team shares news, links and insights on Nevada Sen. Harry Reid and the 2014 battle for the U.S. Senate. Readers can also submit questions at [email protected] or via Twitter using the hashtag #AskAmber.

WASHINGTON — OK, it's officially crunch time. In just two weeks and one day, Nevada Sen. Harry Reid will know if he will still run the U.S. Senate.

The campaign to control the Senate is the defining storyline of American politics in the Nov. 4 election, and Reid is one of the main characters.

Forecasts predict Republicans could have a slight majority in the Senate. An unpopular Democratic president and the first national election since the 2013 implementation of Obamacare helped create a tough environment for Senate Democrats up for re-election in red states.

If Republicans gain a net six seats, they would control both chambers of Congress for President Barack Obama's last two years in office. And Reid would lose control of the Senate after ascending to majority leader in 2007.

This election is going to come down to the wire, and even two weeks is a long time in politics. Neither Reid nor Republican Nevada Sen. Dean Heller are up for re-election this year. But the Las Vegas Sun politics team will share links and insights on the Senate showdown leading up to the election.

Dark money could be this election's October surprise

Political advertising in this midterm election is approaching $1 billion, the New York Times reports.

Much of that is funded by outside groups. With the exception of the Reid-affiliated Senate Majority PAC, an outside spending group required by law to disclose its donors, many outside groups attempting to sway voters' minds this election don't have to disclose their donors.

Peter Overby of NPR explains why about half of big-money donor groups, like most of those owned by Charles and David Koch, can spend millions on elections without ever officially putting their name behind it.

And money-in-politics expert Darrell West writes in a Huffington Post column that this undisclosed spending could be the election's "October surprise," a last-minute money dump that changes the election's outcome.

Choose your own Senate endgame

For all the polls showing Republicans slightly favored to take the Senate in November, there's still no certainty about what leadership of the Senate would look like. So journalists are considering all the scenarios.

The Washington Examiner looks at what would happen if the Senate is evenly split 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats. (Hint: The answer involves Vice President Joe Biden.)

The Economist analyzes what happens if Republicans win the Senate. One of two scenarios would play out — the first gives Obama more gray hair and lots of vetoes. The second actually breaks through political gridlock with Democrats controlling the Senate.

And Capitol Hill newspaper CQ Roll Call lets readers choose their own Senate endgame.

The island at the end of the earth that could help decide control of the Senate

Getting people to actually vote is everything for Democrats this election cycle. Democrats are especially focused on voter turnout in one of the most competitive Senate races in Alaska, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich is in the fight of his political life against Republican challenger Dan Sullivan.

Begich's team is spending time and money to win over remote Alaskan villages, which often vote en masse. That includes a village on a "volcanic, treeless scrap of tundra" about 300 miles off the coast of Alaska, so far off the grid that a barge brings supplies every six weeks.

Talking Points Memo's Dylan Scott (a former Las Vegas Sun reporter) shares why this island's voting record matters to Harry Reid.

Surprise! Some voters don't care about this election

Another incredibly tight Senate race this cycle is in Iowa, where Democratic Rep. Bruce Braley is vying for the open seat against Republican state Sen. Joni Ernst.

Iowa is also an early presidential swing state, meaning its voters have the power to impact the biggest election there is. (Nevada is also increasingly playing this role.)

But when The Economist traveled to Iowa, its reporters found "a collective shrug" among voters. Only a handful of a dozen interviewed in a park could name the Senate candidates.

And in Georgia, LA Times' Mark Barabak found a similar apathy among Latino voters, who are increasingly upset with Obama's immigration policies. The early conclusion to draw is that some ad-weary voters could view elections as a chore rather than a privilege.

What the pundits say

If you haven't lost your appetite for politics yet and want to follow the Senate showdown day by day, there are a number of forecasting models that try to predict the political winds.

Statistic-driven models a The New York Times election lab, The Washington Post election lab and

FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast use slightly different methodology, but all come to the same conclusion: Republicans have better than a 50/50 chance to take the Senate.