Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Nevada tax experts predict increase in alcohol consumption, decrease in smoking

CARSON CITY – State financial experts predict that cigarette smoking rates will continue to decline in Nevada over the next two years. At the same time, alcohol consumption will increase, they predict.

Experts from the state taxation department, the legislative fiscal staff and the budget office met Wednesday to make their preliminary estimates.

A technical committee on predicting future revenues on minor tax sources also believes there may be a temporary upswing in marriage license taxes due to this month's legalization of same sex marriage in Nevada. Eventually that upswing will level off, they predict.

Most agreed on all of the projections, except for tax revenue collections from Nevada mines.

The budget office has forecast a drop in gold taxes during the next two years. It estimated the state would receive $48 million during the next biennium. The legislative staff predicted the revenues would be about $70 million.

The parent Economic Forum meets Nov. 7 to make its preliminary estimates on the major sources of state tax revenue. Gov. Brian Sandoval must build his budget on the final estimates of the Economic Forum unless he proposes new taxes.

The advisory committee projected tax collections from cigarette sales will decline two percent in each of the next two fiscal years.

Russ Guindon, a financial analyst for the legislature, told the committee there has been a per capita decline nationally in smoking. And this will also be the trend in Nevada. The tax brings in about $75 million a year.

But the tax collections on liquor are predicted to grow two percent a year, the advisory committee predicted. That would bring in close to $88 million in the next two years.

Taxes on marriage licenses are expected to be up 2.9 percent to $382,400 this fiscal year. The advisory committee predicted an increase of 0.8 percent next year and then a decline of 0.8 percent in fiscal 2017.

The advisory committee estimates a gradual growth in most other fees collected by the state from these minor sources.

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