Three election takeaways on the final day of early voting

By Conor Shine

Friday, Oct. 31, 2014 | 2 a.m.

Boosted by a visit by former President Bill Clinton, Democrats have gained momentum in early voting turnout this week, but it still might not be enough to erase the Republican's early lead.

In Clark County, Democrats turned out more voters to the polls than Republicans on Wednesday for the first time since early voting started nearly two weeks ago.

Despite the late gains, Republicans still hold an advantage of 2,000 votes in Clark County and 17,000 votes statewide heading into the last day of early voting today.

The 2,000-vote margin in Clark County may seem small, but consider that Democrats have 107,000 more registered voters than Republicans in the county.

That trend could prove fatal for Democrats' hopes on Election Day on Tuesday. Republicans generally turnout in higher numbers than Democrats on Election Day, increasing the importance for Democrats to bank early votes.

"Traditionally the rurals have the highest turnout that's more Republican," UNLV political science professor David Damore said. "To offset that, (Democrats) have to build the firewall in Clark County, which isn't happening this year so far."

Here are other trends to watch as early voting wraps up today. Data are from the Clark County Elections Department and includes early voting turnout through Wednesday.

Low turnout

With no high-profile races for governor, president or U.S. Senate on ballot, voter turnout has been especially low.

Through Wednesday, 130,319 people had cast early ballots in Clark County compared to 436,992 early votes in 2012, the last presidential election. That's a decrease of 70 percent.

Looking back to 2010, which was an off-presidential year like 2014, turnout is still off by about 50 percent. The 2010 election did include a blockbuster race between Sen. Harry Reid and Sharron Angle.

Both parties are turning out in far fewer numbers than previous years, but the lack of interest has been even greater among Democrats.

"You expect in the midterm the drop-off would be primarily among Democratic voters," Damore said. "(Democrats) are good at getting first time voters in presidential elections, but those people aren't in the habit of voting and tend to fall off, particularly if there isn't a lot of voter mobilization like you see in presidential cycles."

Senate in danger; Assembly in play

Republicans have grabbed early voting leads in three contested races expected to decide control of the state Senate.

In Senate District 8, where Republican Patricia Farley faces Democrat Marilyn Dondero Loop, the Republicans are up by 1,400 votes.

In Senate District 9, where Democrat Sen. Justin Jones is attempting to fend off Republican Becky Harris, Republicans have a 600-vote advantage.

And in Senate District 20, Sen. Michael Roberson will get a boost from the 1,200 Republican vote advantage in his contest against Democrat Teresa Lowry.

The early voting surge for Republicans could also put the state Assembly in play, a possibility considered a longshot until a few weeks ago. Democrats held a big majority during the last session with 27 seats compared to the Republican's 15.

But through early voting, Republicans have the early voting lead in 17 of the 31 Assembly districts in Clark County.