Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Week 4 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Expect turnovers in interconference meeting between Jets and Lions

Geno Smith

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (6) greets New York Jets quarterback Geno Smith (7) after the Bears beat the Jets 27-19 in an NFL football game, Monday, Sept. 22, 2014, in East Rutherford, N.J.

The NFL is inadvertently adding to the suddenly prevalent 1990s nostalgia.

Week 4: Lions at Jets

Which side would you bet in the Sun's handicapping game of the week? (Public Opinion this season: 1-3)
Lions minus-2 — 64.3%
Jets plus-2 — 35.7%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

While the NFC will never surpass the streak of 13 straight Super Bowl victories from 1985 to 1997, the conference is at its strongest since the run ended nearly two decades ago. It’s five yards away from winning the last five Super Bowls, instead going 4-1 since 2009.

On all the early 2015 Super Bowl lines around town, the NFC is installed as a 3-point favorite over the AFC with no signs of anything changing the number unless something drastic happens late in the playoffs. The point spreads through three weeks of the season better depict the gap between the AFC and NFC.

Betting odds have favored the NFC in 10 of 16 interconference games so far. Although the teams have gone a mediocre 9-7 straight-up, 7-9 against the spread in the games, the enthusiasm for the NFC never dampened. The NFC team has attracted the majority of betting tickets in 11 of 16 games against the AFC.

The New York Jets are the poster boys of interconference matchups in the early season. Having already lost to the Packers, but covering the 8-point spread in a 31-24 defeat, and the Bears, losing both straight-up and against the spread in a 27-19, the Jets play their third straight NFC opponent Sunday.

Their home game against the Detroit Lions, which are 2-point favorites at the South Point, comes in as the Sun handicapping contest’s Game of the Week. All three sports writers used one of their six weekly picks — available at the bottom of the page — on the matchup.

Detroit enters on a higher note, having shut down the rival Green Bay Packers 19-7 as a 2-point favorite at home last week. New York played reasonably well, outgaining Chicago by more than 150 yards, but were plagued by its usual demon — turnovers.

The Jets committed three giveaways, including both a pick-six on the second play of the game and an interception in the end zone from the 18-yard line from quarterback Geno Smith. Since the start of last season when the then-rookie Smith took over the Jets’ offense, they’re an NFL-worst minus-18 in turnover margin.

That’s often a fluky statistic, but mostly because of the randomness associated with recovering fumbles. And the Jets haven’t endured poor fumble luck, actually coming up with a fortunate 12 of 19 loose balls in Smith’s 18 starts.

The overwhelming culprit is Smith himself, who has 15 touchdowns to 25 interceptions in his to this point pedestrian career.

Smith will have a kindred spirit on the other sideline in this game as Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford has his team in the bottom five of turnover margin, at minus-15, over the last two years with 22 interceptions. But Stafford has also tossed 29 touchdown passes, including 14 to Calvin Johnson.

“Megatron” is quite the luxury for Stafford. The likes of Jeremy Kerley, Eric Decker and Jeff Cumberland might be competent pass-catchers for Smith, but they don’t come close to adding up.

No Lions fans are going to call for Stafford’s job anytime soon. Not with Dan Orlovsky, infamous as a contributor to the 2008 Lions team that went 0-16, as his backup.

Smith is already hearing the cries for backup Michael Vick from his team’s fan base. Jets’ fans constant impatience is one reason why they’ve never been presumed to have much of a home field advantage.

Last year’s 6-2 against the spread record at MetLife Stadium was the first-time in coach Rex Ryan’s tenure that the team finished with a winning mark at home. Starting 2014 with two non-covers at home has pushed the Jets’ against the spread record back down to 21-21 under Ryan.

Fortunately for the Jets, the Lions’ results on the road are far more pitiful. In the same span, since 2009, Detroit is 15-26-1 against the spread away from the comfortable indoor confines Ford Field. Its 24-7 loss at Carolina as a 2-point underdog two weeks ago brought Detroit’s current streak without a road cover to four games.

The Lions and Jets, however, might be more similar than different. If either team overcomes long-shot odds to make the playoffs — Detroit was plus-270 (risking $1 to win $2.70) to reach the postseason before play started as opposed to New York’s plus-400 — it will be mostly because of their defenses.

Both stop-units rank in the top 10 of Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric through three weeks. Detroit is second in the league against the run.

New coach Jim Caldwell has his 3-4 defensive front of Ndamukong Suh, Chris Fairley and Ezekiel Ansah behaving and dominating. The Jets are one of the only teams that could argue they’re starting better defensive linemen with the terrifying trio of Muhammad Wilkerson, Damon Harrison and Sheldon Richardson.

Both secondaries contain their holes with an oft-targeted cornerback — Darius Slay for the Lions, Dee Milliner for the Jets — on each side. Then again, defensive backs don’t have to be outstanding if the ball is thrown right at them.

The betting market is clearly keener on one turnover-prone quarterback than the other. More than three out of every four bets are on Stafford and the Lions.

Naturally, the NFC team is the popular choice. The NFC went 35-30 straight-up, 33-30-2 against the spread against the AFC last season.

If the perceived discrepancy between conferences is any indicator, the success might wind up even more pronounced in 2014.

Check below for all of the week 4 picks, listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

 

Case Keefer (2012 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 11-7 (3-3 last week)

Raiders plus-4 vs. Dolphins in London

Packers minus-1.5 at Bears

Titans plus-7.5 at Colts

Jets plus-2 vs. Lions

Eagles vs. 49ers under 50.5

Patriots minus-3.5 at Chiefs

 

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2014 Record: 11-7 (4-2 last week)

Panthers plus-3.5 at Ravens

Lions minus-2 at Jets

Buccaneers vs. Steelers over 44.5

Falcons minus-3 at Vikings

Saints minus-3 at Cowboys

Chiefs plus-3.5 vs. Patriots

 

Taylor Bern

2014 Record: 9-9 (4-2 last week)

Texans minus-3 vs. Bills

Colts minus-7.5 vs. Titans

Panthers plus-3.5 at Ravens

Jets plus-2 vs. Lions

Falcons vs. Vikings over 46.5

Eagles plus-5 at 49ers

Case Keefer can be reached at 948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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