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March 28, 2024

Rebels Football:

Bern’s-Eye View: Will UNLV be able to surpass two-win mark?

2015 UNLV Football Media Day

Steve Marcus

Freshmen Xzaviar Campbell (35), Dalton Sneed (18) and Darren Woods Jr. pose during UNLV Football media day at Sam Boyd Stadium Thursday, Aug. 13, 2015.

What will be the Rebels’ record in 2015? It’s a seemingly simple question and it comes with a handy guide in the form of UNLV’s over/under win total of 2.5.

Two or fewer victories, even in the first year of a coaching staff that’s facing one of UNLV’s most difficult schedules, will leave many feeling that the program is headed for more of the same. Four would be a great stepping stone and any more than that would necessitate a statue for first-year coach Tony Sanchez.

So what, realistically, can you expect from this year’s team? It’s a roster that will use plenty of freshmen, one that has to prove its defense won’t just get run (and passed) over and one that is in serious trouble if senior quarterback Blake Decker goes down with an injury.

The only thing you can count on with preseason predictions is how absurdly wrong some of them will be, but with that caveat here’s an attempt two weeks from the start of the season to predict the result of each UNLV game:

At Northern Illinois — Loss

Headline: Sanchez era starts will lopsided loss to the Huskies

• Nothing in this game would be truly shocking because we have to admit there’s a lot we don’t know, but it’s likely that keeping this around a two-touchdown game would be a positive start for the Rebels. Last year Northern Illinois came in to Sam Boyd Stadium and won a 48-34 shootout. It will be interesting to see if UNLV’s offense can come close to that point total right out of the gates.

UCLA — Loss

Headline: Bruins bash Rebels in UNLV’s 2015 home opener

• UCLA has national championship aspirations, and whether that happens it shouldn’t be too worried about slipping up here. The Bruins are favored by more than 30 points in UNLV’s premier home game of the season.

At Michigan — Loss

Headline: Rebels fade down the stretch at the Big House

• 0-3 is the expected result, so anything better than that would be a pleasant surprise for the Rebels. Really the key would seem to be getting through these first three games in good health and good spirits.

Idaho State — Win

Headline: Boyd’s career day leads Rebels to first victory

• This is the must win. UNLV hasn’t always had an easy time with its Division I-AA opponents and Idaho State isn’t a complete pushover. The Bengals are ranked in the preseason top 25 out of the Big Sky Conference and could make this one uncomfortable, but I like sophomore receiver Devonte Boyd to go off for a big game in a UNLV win.

At UNR — Loss

Headline: Cannon remains in Reno after Wolf Pack hold on for win

• There are four games that, to me, feel like they could really go either way. This is the only one that might surprise people, considering some have UNR winning the West Division this year. I give UNLV a great chance to go get this win, but right now I’m calling it for that team up north.

San Jose State — Win

Headline: Defense guides UNLV to league win against Spartans

• San Jose State might end up finishing just ahead of UNLV in the West Division. Great opportunity at home and the Rebels’ performance in this three-game stretch will go a long way toward defining this season.

At Fresno State — Win

Headline: Rebels embrace ‘defining moment’ in upset at Fresno State

• In one game this season, UNLV will win a game outright as a double-digit underdog. If you think the Rebels are going to go over their 2.5 win total then it’s almost a requirement to win a game in that scenario, and for whatever reason I’ve had a feeling for months that it’s going to happen. Could be in Reno or in one of the games down the stretch, or it could be on a Friday night in Fresno.

Boise State — Loss

Headline: Rebels pull out tricks, get no treat in Halloween loss

• Are the Broncos still going to be competing for a perfect season and a spot in the College Football Playoff at this point? If so, this one’s going to be over quickly. If not, it will be over slightly less quickly.

Hawaii — Loss

Headline: Rainbow Warriors roll through Rebels

• This is one of those games that could go either way and a lot of it is going to depend on these teams’ first half of the season. I’m starting to get high on Hawaii heading into the year but if they really struggle and it’s clear this is the end for coach Norm Chow, then the end isn’t going to be pretty.

At Colorado State — Loss

Headline: Turnovers doom Rebels, who fall to 3-7 on the season

• Injuries and turnovers were UNLV’s two biggest issues last season, or at least two of the biggest. Fixing both requires a good mix of skill and luck, and no matter what there will be setbacks. This will be one of them.

San Diego State — Loss

Headline: Pumphrey scores thrice for San Diego State in victory against UNLV

• In two games against the Rebels, Canyon Springs High grad Donnel Pumphrey has averaged 7.3 yards per carry and scored five touchdowns. He’s good against most opponents but especially so against his hometown team, and that’s going to continue.

At Wyoming — Loss

Headline: Rebels finish season on five-game losing streak

• No one said this year was going to be easy. A 3-9 season isn’t what anyone would call great, but by definition it would be progress for a team coming off two victories.

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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