Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Week 13 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Resurgent Chiefs on NFL’s longest against the spread winning streak

NFL Games: Oct. 11

AP

Kansas City Chiefs running back Jamaal Charles (25) is helped off the field after an injury in the second half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Oct. 11, 2015. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

11/29/15: NFL Games

Miami Dolphins strong safety Reshad Jones (20) deflects a pass by New York Jets' Ryan Fitzpatrick (14) during the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015, in East Rutherford, N.J. (AP Photo/Bill Kostroun) Launch slideshow »

Week 13: Chiefs at Raiders

Which side would you take in Chiefs at Raiders? (Poll consensus year to date: 7-3-2)
Chiefs minus-3 — 55.3%
Raiders plus-3 — 44.7%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Jamaal Charles grimaced in pain as Kansas City Chiefs’ medical personnel helped him to the locker room, leaving teammates and fans as distraught as the venerable Pro Bowler himself.

The Chiefs blew a 17-3 lead and 99 percent win expectancy as a 10-point favorite in a week 5 game against the Chicago Bears after the NFL’s all-time leading running back in yards per carry went out. Coach Andy Reid quieted the post-game press conference to a sense of resignation by announcing Charles was done for the year with a torn ACL.

The odds reflected the sentiment of a lost season. After another defeat sans Charles the next week — 16-10 at the Vikings as 3.5-point underdogs — the Chiefs jumped to 200-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook with only seven teams listed at higher odds.

Only slightly more than a month later, the future price has decreased nearly tenfold as Kansas City is down to 30-to-1 after five straight wins and covers. Kansas City’s stature has risen so much that they’re a road favorite against a fellow playoff contender in week 13, laying 3 points at Oakland in a 1:25 p.m. kickoff.

The AFC West rivalry matchup is the game of the week in the Sun’s handicapping contest, making it a required pick in the competition where three sports writers place six wagers off of the South Point betting board. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

The Raiders have encountered no such devastating injury — they rank 21st in the league with 84 games lost to injury — but they’ve enjoyed just as drastic of a change in fortune when looking back to the beginning of the season.

The Superbook grouped the Raiders with the Jaguars and Titans at the bottom of its future odds upon opening all three at 300-to-1 to win the Super Bowl. Now Oakland is down to 100-to-1 and threatening to post its first winning season since 2002, when it lost to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl 37.

The Raiders getting their first winning record against the spread since 2011 is at least in play as they are 6-5 versus the number. That 2011 team, the lone year coached by Hue Jackson, was also the last time the franchise beat sports books’ preseason over/under win total by finishing 8-8.

Under 5.5 wins was another popular selection this preseason, meaning the Raiders only need one more victory to have the gambling masses cursing new coach Jack Del Rio. The former Jacksonville coach said he was pleasantly surprised with how much talent he found upon arriving in Oakland, and now the betting market is expressing the same reaction.

While Oakland’s defense remains a work in progress, the offense has zipped in helping the over point total hit in seven of 11 games with one push. No one called second-year quarterback Derek Carr throwing for 24 touchdowns to six interceptions and ranking sixth in passer rating.

Rookie of the Year consideration must be extended towards Carr’s top target, Alabama product Amari Cooper, who’s coming off of a game where he caught seven passes for 115 yards — and neither were career highs.

Sunday might serve as the first of many battles between Cooper and Kansas City’s own fast-producing 2015 first-round pick, Marcus Peters. The cornerback out of Washington gets a homecoming to boot as he grew up in Oakland.

Defense has driven the Chiefs’ turnaround as they’ve given up a stingy 5.5 yards per pass attempt during their five-game winning streak. They’ve got the fifth-best adjusted sack rate in the league, though they’ll play Oakland without top pass rusher Justin Houston who hyperextended his knee early in last week’s win over Buffalo.

Kansas City has gotten past injuries before. Perhaps nothing speaks to the interchangeable nature of running backs in the modern NFL than Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware scoring seven touchdowns and rushing for 4.5 yards per carry in Charles’ stead.

The Chiefs have overcome losing their best player to currently own a playoff spot, though the Raiders are only a game back and could poach it with a victory.

Once considered lost causes, neither Kansas City nor Oakland is a charity case anymore.

Check below for full week 13 picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 41-29-2 (3-3 last week)

Bears minus-7 vs. 49ers

Steelers minus-7 vs. Colts

Bills minus-3 vs. Texans

Rams plus-5.5 vs. Cardinals

Jets minus-2 at Giants

Raiders plus-3 vs. Chiefs

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 30-38-4 (1-5 last week)

Titans minus-2.5 vs. Jaguars

Seahawks minus-1.5 at Vikings

Giants plus-2 vs. Jets

Chargers plus-4 vs. Broncos

Raiders plus-3 vs. Chiefs

Eagles plus-9.5 at Patriots

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 29-39-4 (3-3 last week)

Ravens plus-3.5 at Dolphins

Seahawks minus-1.5 at Vikings

Rams plus-5.5 vs. Cardinals

Giants plus-2 vs. Jets

Chiefs vs. Raiders under 44.5

Colts vs. Steelers over 49

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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