Bern’s-Eye View: Forecasting Mountain West Basketball Week 10

By Taylor Bern

Wednesday, Jan. 14, 2015 | 2 p.m.

We’re basically a quarter into Mountain West play, and there’s so much I feel like I still don’t know about this league.

Can New Mexico be consistent enough to emerge as the best of the middle? With guard Cezar Guerrero finally eligible, is Fresno State now a threat? Was the win at UNLV a complete aberration for UNR?

My uncertainty shows in the record as I’ve gone 11-11 over the past two weeks. Not bad, but not good enough to make money, and that’s supposed to be the goal, right? Tonight could be boom or bust with three of the games featuring double-digit lines and the other, San Diego State at Wyoming, a coin flip as far as I’m concerned.

I wouldn’t begrudge someone just taking all four underdogs, though that’s not the way I’m going. We’ll see whether that’s smart or not:

TODAY

Air Force (plus-10.5) at New Mexico

6 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• Air Force freshman Matt Mooney will miss this game for a punch he threw against Colorado State but his absence shouldn’t be a huge factor. More important is how the Falcons start the game. They’ve been a great second-half team but because of poor starts, they’ve needed those just to get back into the game.

Here’s hoping for a little better start so the backdoor cover doesn’t have to come from so far back.

Pick: Air Force

UNR (plus-10.5) at Colorado State

6 p.m., Mountain West Network/Campus Insiders

• This is a weird line. The Wolf Pack came into the Thomas & Mack Center as 10-point underdogs and won outright, then went home and lost to Fresno State as a small favorite. Now they’re back on the road against a team missing its best player and the number is even bigger than at the Mack.

The Rams’ J.J. Avila, who leads the team in points and rebounds, is suspended a game for retaliating. When Air Force’s Zach Kocur pulled Avila down, the Rams’ big man had Kocur in a headlock by the time they were on the ground. Then when the Matt Mooney punched Avila in the back, Avila tried to grab his head.

The only thing I can think of is that the Rams have consistently won while missing other starters, but it’s still a big number. However, since the line is begging you to take UNR, I’m going with the other side.

Pick: Colorado State

Fresno State (minus-11.5) at San Jose State

7 p.m., Mountain West Network

• Laying double digits at San Jose State didn’t work out for me last time when Wyoming had to fight for the win, but I’m going to stick with my philosophy of betting against the Spartans with no questions asked. If this one doesn’t work, I might re-evaluate that plan when they’re at home.

Pick: Fresno State

San Diego State (plus-2) at Wyoming

8 p.m., ESPN2

• This game was my pick for the Vegas Play of the Day. The Aztecs had a week to prepare for this game and if they don’t steal one or at least play well at the Double A, it could be a rough stretch, with a home game against UNLV and then road trips to Air Force and Colorado State after that.

Pick: San Diego State

Last week: 5-5

Season: 70-58-1

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.