Stakes are high in Iran deal; let’s not rush to judgment

By Brian Greenspun (contact)

Sunday, July 19, 2015 | 2 a.m.

A week after the United States announced it and the other negotiating nations had reached a deal regarding the nuclear ambitions of the terrorist state Iran, every country and every leader and every person has rendered an opinion. So much so that it is extremely difficult for mere mortals to determine what is in the best interests of the United States.

After all, isn’t that why we enter into negotiations with bad actors? So we can avoid the next best alternative, which usually involves cranking up our war machine? We have done that in the recent past, and, at the very least, hindsight tells us that we have made a bloody mess of that effort. Literally.

That doesn’t, nor shouldn’t, mean that the United States, still the most powerful nation on Earth, should no longer be willing to use its military might when the circumstances call for such action. What it means is that we need to be most diligent when next it comes time to pull the trigger.

So, back to Iran and the deal the P5+1 have hammered out over the past two years with what was once a stalwart U.S. ally. (For the dreamers among us, just think what the world could be like if ever we could be friends again!) What should we be doing about that deal?

I have to take the advice of Sen. Bob Corker, the chairman of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations — those are the folks in Congress who know the most about such things as, say, foreign relations — when he answered the same question asked 20 ways last week.

His response was simple and, oh, so reasonable. Despite his personal opinion about what the deal may say or mean, he advised everyone to wait until we get the agreement and all the side letters. Then we can read them, study them and hold hearings about them so all the questions, big and small, can get answered. After all the information is in, then we can draw conclusions about what to do.

In most circumstances that is called getting the facts before we form opinions and jump to conclusions. That seems like a sane approach, especially given that we are talking about the kind of existential issues that seem to follow from the acquisition of nuclear weapons by a terrorist state bent on the annihilation of the western world. Not to put too fine a point on it, but it seems we had better get this one right.

As a very incisive aside, remember when the shah was toppled by the religious zealots in Iran with the United States’ acquiescence? That memory should be fresh enough for us to agree that we can make serious geopolitical blunders that stay with us for decades. The result of that mistake is playing out with Iran’s nuclear bomb-making aspirations!

Yes, we must be careful with this decision, so at least this American citizen, as much as my instincts suggest otherwise, is willing to wait a couple of months before joining the chorus of cheerleaders or naysayers lining up based on, well, what we only think we know.

So, what do we know?

There are some self-evident truths we must not lose sight of as we try to understand the context for the deal now on the table.

For the better part of the 21st century, Iran has been hell-bent on acquiring the material for and the knowledge with which to make itself a nuclear contender. A nation dedicated to fomenting death and destruction throughout the region, Iran would be unstoppable if its arsenal contained the ability to explode the atom.

Its target? Anything western. Israel, Europe, the United States and even Tehran’s neighbors in the Middle East. We are all victims of the ayatollah’s policy of exporting terrorism. Imagine if a nuke or two came with the do-it-yourself terrorist kit.

The U.S., by itself, could easily stop Iran in its tracks. But that would require a national resolve that no longer exists in the aftermath of war in Iraq and Afghanistan that by all accounts didn’t go as expected. Without leadership committed to selling the American public on a right, just and necessary war, there is no stomach for any such action. And, Donald Trump notwithstanding, there is no leadership willing to step into that breach right now.

So we are left dealing from a position of the strength of our allies and colleagues who are similarly concerned about a rogue nation with the ability to annihilate. That means China, Russia and the others all have a say in the outcome. It becomes a committee that, by design, is a compromise from the outset.

When we question why we didn’t demand this or that, perhaps we did, but perhaps our negotiating partners didn’t or didn’t care. Get the picture? In the end, I don’t believe for a moment that we didn’t get the best we could given the circumstances. It is just that the circumstances included the wants and needs of people who didn’t share all of our concerns. That isn’t an excuse, just a fact.

Another fact, this one courtesy of The Donald, who knows a good idea when he has heard it before: The United States on our best day has absolutely no chance in a negotiation in the Persian bazaar. We play by a different set of rules. Strike that. We play by rules and the other side just plain doesn’t. The best we can ever hope to do is get out alive.

Another fact comes from the mouth of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He claimed following the announcement that the Middle East became a more dangerous place because of what we agreed to, or, more important, didn’t get Iran to agree to. That is only a fact if ...

• if Iran is free to produce a nuclear weapon under the watchful eyes and ears of those responsible to make sure that doesn’t happen.

• if Iran has immediate access to hundreds of billions of dollars with which it can foment more insurgencies, more destruction and more turmoil throughout its sphere of influence.

• if Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries threatened by Iran’s hegemonic aspirations believe they have 10 years or less to acquire their own atomic weapons to counter an overtly ambitious Iranian mullocracy, thereby embarking on their own nuclear arms race.

• if Russia’s Vladimir Putin sees the map of the Middle East resembling, once again, the Middle Eastern map of Cold War years. That could inspire him to meddle in a way that makes that region the potential nuclear hotspot it had been for 40 years prior to the fall of the Soviet Empire.

If those things can happen, then Bibi is right. And knowing Israel the way I think I do, that little country whose very existence means it must act before its enemies do cannot afford to hesitate. Not for one moment.

So, those are just some of the facts that need to be assessed against this agreement when the Senate begins its hearings.

Here is another fact: If ever there were a time for the American people to become engaged in what Congress is doing, this is that time. There is too much at stake on this issue to allow talking heads or political pundits to direct our thought processes. Pull up a chair, tune in to the hearings when they begin and take a front-row seat to history in the making. Most important, use your own head and not one from those who get paid to turn ours one way or another.

There is so much at stake: the resurgence of diplomacy as a geopolitical weapon; the safety and security of our closest allies whose existence is threatened if we get this one wrong; the opportunity to bring a once-great and advanced culture back into a world of hope and not conflict; and the opportunity for American leadership to, once again, be respected and sought after around the world.

You see, everyone has a stake in the outcome, so rushing to judgment is in nobody’s interest. And that, unfortunately, is the fact that cannot be denied.

Brian Greenspun is owner, publisher and editor of the Las Vegas Sun.