Will Sandoval run for Senate?

By Kyle Roerink

Monday, May 4, 2015 | 2 a.m.

As a handsome, popular, moderate politician of Latino heritage, Republican Gov. Brian Sandoval often is the subject of political speculation.

Even before his overwhelming re-election win, people were guessing about his ambitions to run for U.S. Senate.

Then Sen. Harry Reid announced his retirement, making a potential Senate run even more attractive to Sandoval.

For now, only Sandoval knows what his next move will be. He refuses to answer questions about his political aspirations, and his inner circle insists he is focused on the job Nevadans elected him to do.

But with Sandoval’s history of exiting office early to win a more powerful seat, pundits speculate he could make a 2016 power play for Reid’s seat.

There are compelling reasons for either decision.

WHY HE WILL RUN

THE LADDER CLIMB

Sandoval has a history of leaving jobs to take better positions. Three years into his term on the Nevada Gaming Commission, Sandoval resigned to run for attorney general. His landslide victory in November 2002 made him the first Latino to win statewide elected office.

Three years later, Reid recommended Sandoval to the federal bench. Sandoval stepped down early from his attorney general post to become a U.S. District Court judge.

Almost four years later, he left the lifetime appointment to run for governor. He is one of only three federal judges nationally to leave the bench to become governor.



HIS INNER CIRCLE

Sandoval has a tight-knit cohort of lobbyists and consultants that has known him for decades and helped him climb the Nevada political ladder. The group includes people, namely Pete Ernaut and Greg Ferraro, who encouraged Sandoval to leave the bench to run for governor. Neither will hint about where the governor will go next, but if Ernaut and Ferraro want Sandoval to run for Senate, he likely would.

Both Ernaut and Ferraro helped coalesce the state’s divided Republican Party, aiding the GOP’s 2014 election sweep that ousted Democrats from every statewide office and gave both chambers of the Legislature to Republicans for the first time since 1928. The team also has deep ties to Washington, D.C.



THE NATIONAL PARTY

Sandoval won his second term as governor with more than 70 percent of the vote. His popularity is attractive to the GOP. As Republicans nationwide look to rebrand the party as one of inclusion, who better than a Hispanic man from a swing state who embraced the Affordable Care Act, expanded Medicaid, lured Tesla Motors to Nevada and vowed to raise taxes to improve education?

Few potential GOP candidates can compare with Sandoval politically. None has the record, recognition or likeability among voters.

WHY HE WON'T RUN

LAST IN LINE

The governor has spent a long time at the top of the political pecking order. If Sandoval were to win Reid’s seat, he would head to Washington as a junior senator with little clout. The back seat is not familiar territory for him.

Sandoval has been a former chairman of the Nevada Gaming Commission, attorney general and a federal judge. In other words, he has been the boss. Sandoval confidants say the governor is more attuned to running the show than being a player in it.



HIGHER ASPIRATIONS

Sandoval loves Nevada, and insiders say a U.S. Senate seat isn’t ambitious enough to lure him away from his beloved home state. Vice president, however, or a Cabinet position — Department of the Interior, perhaps — they say would better suit Sandoval’s leadership qualities and not bog him down in congressional infighting.



A NEW NEVADA

Like all politicians, Sandoval wants a legacy. He has asked for at least $438 million a year to revamp the state’s public education system and is trying to broker tax increases to pay for reforms.

If the money comes through, which is likely, putting it to good use will take executive oversight and commitment throughout the remainder of his tenure as governor.

Who is running for Reid’s seat?

On the Republican side, state Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson and Las Vegas City Councilman Bob Beers have thrown their names in the hat. Other potential candidates include Attorney General Adam Laxalt, former Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Joe Heck, Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison and former state lawmaker Heidi Gansert.

On the Democratic side, Reid’s hand-chosen successor is former attorney general Catherine Cortez Masto, Sandoval’s former lawyer. Other potential candidates include former Secretary of State Ross Miller and Rep. Dina Titus.