Bern’s-Eye View: Rebels could approach 25-win mark in regular season

By Taylor Bern

Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2015 | 2 a.m.

UNLV’s season tips off in two days, and once it starts, it’s going to get real in a hurry.

For the second straight year, the Rebels have put together one of the best nonconference schedules in the country, and a roster many believe to be coach Dave Rice’s best in five seasons at UNLV will find out quickly how close it is to the team it wants to be.

As the season approaches, I wanted to try to predict what this year’s team is going to do against that schedule and provide a look at some of the stats I’m following this season:

Over/Under (Regular season numbers only)

31.9 minutes per game for Jerome Seagears

• That’s the average minutes per game for Rice’s starting point guards, the position that has generally led the team in minutes. UNLV has had multiple ball-handlers but in general, there’s one designated point guard who ends up playing close to 40 minutes in anything resembling a close game.

I think part of switching over to their pressure system is really trusting in all the pieces fitting together in different combinations on consecutive possessions and not necessarily putting a specific guy into the game. Also, one of the expected results of this style is a more balanced minutes distribution, so we’ll see if that takes hold at the top.

Pick: Under

107 blocks for Goodluck Okonoboh

• This is halfway in between Okonoboh’s total last season, when he tied sophomore Christian Wood for the team lead at 90, and Khem Birch’s school-record 124 from 2013-14.

At first, it seems obvious that Okonoboh’s block totals would take a leap with Wood off to the NBA, but freshmen Stephen Zimmerman Jr. and Derrick Jones Jr. will get their share of blocks. I’m also not sure if Okonoboh’s minutes will go up much from last year (26.7 per game) but I’ll still bet that he threatens Joel Anthony’s 109 for third-most single-season blocks in program history.

Pick: Over

48.7 percent 3-point shooting for Jordan Cornish

• I know Cornish feels like it’s an insult to say he won’t match his 3-point shooting from last season, but considering the potential for an increased role, it’s really just being realistic.

Cornish hit 38 of 78 3-pointers last season, and if he had had enough attempts to qualify, that percentage would have been good for the second best in the country. The sophomore guard enters the season in much better shape than he was in at this time last year and if his minutes increase from 16.3 per game, then his percentage will go down, although he could still lead the team in that category.

Pick: Under

60 percent of total shots attempted coming at the rim for Derrick Jones Jr.

• According to hoop-math.com, Okonoboh led last year’s team by attempting 59.7 of his total shot attempts at the rim. After seeing Jones in action, he seems like the candidate to lead the team in that category this season, and it might turn out that 60 percent is way too low of an estimate.

Pick: Over

15 seconds per offensive possession for UNLV

• In Rice’s first season, UNLV ranked seventh in the country in average offensive possession length at 15 seconds, according to kenpom.com. Basically, that means they were running at a pace that backed up the sales pitch, and ever since then, it’s gradually slowed down to last season’s 18.8.

The pressure style and the new 30-second shot clock should both help bring the pace closer to Rice’s liking, but I don’t think this year will match 2011-12.

Pick: Over

21 victories for UNLV

Rice’s most regular season victories (25) came in his first season and his fewest (17) were last year. After looking at the expected schedule strength this season, I figured splitting the middle of those two was a decent number for UNLV’s season win total.

No matter how it ends up playing out, I’ll say up front that I love how UNLV schedules. While most teams in the league avoid challenges, the Rebels seek them out (and are occasionally handed them by the league office), and even if a team struggles, it’s always preferred to see them play legitimate competition rather than hanging out at home.

Last year, I went 20-11 on correctly predicting the outcome, although I was wrong about UNLV going over 19.5 victories. Let’s see how my prognosticating goes this season:

Nov. 13 Cal Poly

• A tougher opponent than many realize, this one could be slow and uncomfortable. UNLV 64, Cal Poly 59

Nov. 16 New Mexico Highlands

• Dunks on dunks on dunks. UNLV 100, New Mexico Highlands 60

Nov. 18 Southern Utah

• The final test before the Maui Jim Maui Invitational will have people feeling confident. UNLV 80, Southern Utah 61

Nov. 23 vs. UCLA (at Maui Jim Maui Invitational)

• In similar situation last season —national stage on a neutral court against a tough Pac-12 opponent — UNLV fell on its face. UCLA 72, UNLV 68

Nov. 24 vs. Kansas/Chaminade (at Maui Jim Maui Invitational)

• The Rebels will likely go 1-1 no matter the outcome of the first game, though they’d love to get a shot at the Jayhawks. UNLV 86, Chaminade 64

Nov. 25 vs. Indiana/Wake Forest/St. John’s/Vanderbilt (at Maui Jim Maui Invitational)

• Rebels make sure it’s a positive trip with 2-1 record. UNLV 73, Wake Forest 65

Nov. 28 Prairie View A&M

• The Panthers are projected to win 5-8 games. UNLV 94, Prairie View A&M 60

Dec. 4 vs. Oregon (at MGM Grand Garden Arena)

• It’s possible the Rebels could come out of Maui without any “quality” victories, which would make taking care of business in a game like this one even more important. UNLV 74, Oregon 72

Dec. 9 at Wichita State

• A little more than four years before this date, Wichita State hosted Rice’s first-ever loss (89-70) and since then, the Shockers have lost only three games at Koch Arena. Wichita State 70, UNLV 62

Dec. 12 at UC Riverside

• This is the kind of stumbling block that trips up average teams. UNLV 70, UC Riverside 67

Dec. 16 Arizona State

• Another take care of business game as Rebels have few comfortable nights in the nonconference slate. UNLV 80, Arizona State 68

Dec. 19 at Arizona

• Much like the 2013 trip to the McKale Center, Rebels will be close before fading in final minutes. Arizona 71, UNLV 64

Dec. 22 South Dakota

• Rebels wrap up nonconference play with game that’s closer than it should be. UNLV 80, South Dakota 71

Dec. 30 Fresno State

• This is a good test right out of the Mountain West gate. UNLV 80, Fresno State 70

Jan. 6 at Colorado State

• Last year, the Rebels were an open Cornish 3-pointer away from Rice’s first career victory at Moby Arena. UNLV 80, Colorado State 76

Jan. 9 at Wyoming

• I think UNLV is only going to manage a 1-1 record on its first back-to-back road swing, so if the Rebels win in Fort Collins, they’ll fall an hour away in Laramie. Wyoming 62, UNLV 58

Jan. 12 New Mexico

• Honestly not sure if this is going to be a tough game or not. UNLV 78, New Mexico 66

Jan. 16 Air Force

• Should be one of the easier games on the slate as the Falcons are a couple years from being competitive. UNLV 89, Air Force 69

Jan. 19 at Utah State

• This is the Rebels’ first game against one of the three teams picked ahead of them in the Mountain West preseason poll. UNLV 76, Utah State 74

Jan. 23 at UNR

• There will be at least one inexplicable loss in conference play and I’m picking this one. UNR 71, UNLV 66

Jan. 27 Boise State

• Huge homestand starts with a comfortable win. UNLV 92, Boise State 79

Jan. 30 San Diego State

• The Mack will be the hottest ticket in town for this one. UNLV 69, San Diego State 67

Feb. 2 at New Mexico

• Win or lose against San Diego State, Rebels need to make sure they’re focused for the Pit. UNLV 70, New Mexico 67

Feb. 6 at Fresno State

• If the Rebels exit this game with at least a four-game winning streak, they’ll know they have a shot at the regular-season crown. UNLV 78, Fresno State 70

Feb. 10 San Jose State

• The less said about this one the better. UNLV 90, San Jose State 60

Feb. 13 Colorado State

• I think UNLV will go 8-1 at home in conference play, and if Rebels are on a roll at this point, this is one that would sneak up on them. Colorado State 77, UNLV 70

Feb. 16 at Air Force

• UNLV lost at Air Force two of the last three years, but when the Rebels won in 2014 it was a 26-point blowout. UNLV 88, Air Force 69

Feb. 20 UNR

• A close game would help develop some interest in a series that could get interesting if first-year Wolf Pack coach Eric Musselman is able to recruit a little bit. UNLV 83, UNR 77

Feb. 23 at Boise State

• This is the first of two games to close the Rebels’ season that could reasonably decide the Mountain West regular season champion. Boise State 91, UNLV 89 (OT)

Feb. 27 Wyoming

• Golden-sweatered Wyoming coach Larry Shyatt never makes it easy. UNLV 74, Wyoming 69

March 5 at San Diego State

• Two potentially great teams meet with a regular season title or more potentially on the line, and sitting here today, I’ll side with the better coach at home. San Diego State 70, UNLV 69

Projected record: 23-8

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.