Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Analysis:

Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West Football and Basketball Picks

UNLV loses to San Diego State

L.E. Baskow

UNLV head coach Tony Sanchez has kind words for senior QB Blake Decker (5)and others on “senior night” as they face San Diego State in their game at Sam Boyd Stadium on Friday, November 21, 2015.

Air Force, the team picked to finish fourth in its division, is likely to host the 2015 Mountain West title game, and the Falcons can all but lock that up with a victory today against New Mexico.

The Falcons (8-3, 6-1) have a big enough lead in the computer rankings that a win against New Mexico should give them a home game next week against San Diego State (8-3, 7-0). The league is using a composite of three computer rankings to spit out the numbers that will reward the game to the higher team.

So Air Force is the surprise participant but it’s still impressive what the Aztecs, the preseason West Division favorites, were able to do once they got into league play. San Diego State opened the year 1-3, including a home loss to South Alabama, and then seemingly flipped a switch as soon as conference play began.

Unfortunately I was never able to find that switch in the picks as I limp into the finish with an overall record of 39-38-2. Thankfully the basketball season is still young, so my redemption can come one pick at a time.

Lines are the best available at the time of publication on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

FOOTBALL

UNLV (minus-2) at Wyoming

11 a.m., Root Sports/MWN

• Wyoming has only one victory all season, a 28-21 home triumph against UNR. The Cowboys won’t get a second.

Pick: UNLV

BYU (minus-3) at Utah State

12:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• A disappointing season for the Aggies is going to end with a close loss at home, probably in gut-punch fashion. If I could pick a push I would for his one.

Pick: BYU

Colorado State (minus-10) at Fresno State

6 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• Colorado State is going to be one of the best teams in the league next year and they’ll get an emphatic win to close out the conference season.

Pick: Colorado State

UNR (plus-17.5) at San Diego State

7:45 p.m., ESPN2

• The Aztecs went 1-3 overall and 0-4 ATS in nonconference play. Since starting Mountain West play they haven’t lost in either category and I’m content to ride the wave.

Pick: San Diego State

Louisiana-Monroe (plus-4) at Hawaii

8 p.m., MWN

• This game is off the board at most places because of some Louisiana-Monroe injuries. I’ll still side with the road team.

Pick: Louisiana-Monroe

Air Force (minus-10) at New Mexico

7:15 p.m., ESPNU

• It’s crazy that this game was nearly going to decide the Mountain Division champ. Credit to both teams for surpassing expectations and taking advantage of a weak conference, but this one won’t be close. Air Force is on a mission and it’s covered five straight with four of those going over.

Pick: Air Force

Last week: 4-3

Season: 39-38-2

BASKETBALL

San Jose State (plus-2) vs. Alaska-Anchorage

3 p.m.

• The Spartans have already shown more potential than the last two years combined, and for the first time in what feels like forever I'm going with their side.

Pick: San Jose State

Montana State (plus-10.5) at Wyoming

5 p.m.

• These teams met six days ago in Billings, Mont., a game that Montana State won 83-82. The Bobcats haven’t played a game since, so I’ll bet on another good gameplan from them to at least keep it close.

Pick: Montana State

UNR (minus-1.5) at Cal State Fullerton

6 p.m.

• I like this Wolf Pack team more than I thought I would this early in the year but haven’t been able to actually watch them a ton yet. Until I see more I’ll side with the home team in a spot like this.

Pick: Cal State Fullerton

Prairie View A&M (plus-20) at UNLV

7 p.m., UNLVRebels.com

• Prairie View is one of the 10 worst teams in the country, but coming off a long trip with the added spice of a transfer from sophomore Goodluck Okonoboh I'll pick an ugly victory for the Rebels, who have a week off before their next game.

Pick: Prairie View A&M

Game with no line

• New Mexico State at Air Force, 11 a.m.

Last week: 10-10-2

Season: 18-20-2

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.

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