Week 12 NFL game of the week, picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Nov. 29, 2015 | 2 a.m.

The betting market bestowed the ultimate honor upon the Minnesota Vikings last week: Most gamblers backed them against Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers’ Green Bay Packers swung from a 1.5-point favorite to a 1-point underdog at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. The Vikings drew 56 percent of the money and 53 percent of the tickets at William Hill sports books, so it was no landslide.

But it was the first week this season that money came in against the Packers, one of the most publicly adored teams ever since early in Rodgers’ eight-year tenure as their starting quarterback.

It proved of little consequence that the Vikings couldn’t cash in a 30-13 loss. Bettors are back on them again in Week 12, as they stand as a 1-point underdog at Atlanta after opening at plus-2.5.

The centerpiece of this week’s 10 a.m. slate is the Sun handicapping contest’s game of the week, making it a required pick in the competition where three sports writers place six wagers off of the South Point betting board. Full picks are available at the bottom of the page.

The local fascination with the Vikings was not sudden. Support brewed all offseason.

Minnesota received enough Super Bowl bets to drop its price from 60-to-1 to 25-to-1 at MGM Resorts properties, creating the house’s largest liability. Tied with the Carolina Panthers for the second-best against the spread record in the NFL at 8-2, the Vikings have rewarded anyone who has stuck with them.

But at 7-3 straight-up, they haven’t been scary enough to leave MGM bookmakers trembling with fear. Minnesota currently sits as a 16-to-1 eighth choice in the Superbook’s Super Bowl futures pool.

It does have better than a 2-in-3 chance of reaching the postseason, per Football Outsiders, which is encouraging for anyone who took Minnesota at plus-225 (risking $1 to win $2.25) to make the playoffs before the season started. If the postseason started Sunday, in fact, the Vikings would host the Falcons.

Atlanta, 6-4 straight-up and 4-6 against the spread, was another underdog to get to the playoffs before the regular season, offered at odds of plus-170. It’s gotten into position by a similar fashion to Minnesota.

The Falcons and Vikings have played what Football Outsiders rates as the two easiest schedules in the league. They’ve both gone on five-game winning streaks at different points behind invigorated defenses.

It’s not happenstance that they’re two of the top three under teams in the NFL. The over/under point total record in games involving the Vikings and Falcons is 16-3-1 to the under.

New Falcons coach Dan Quinn may have committed one of the worst calls in NFL history to lead to a loss against the 49ers three weeks ago, but there are no faults to find in the defense he’s implemented.

Atlanta gives up 5.4 yards per play, which ranks 13th in the league compared to last year when it surrendered an NFL-worst 6.1 yards per play. Quinn brought defensive principles over from Seattle, where he served as the unit’s coordinator, and slotted veteran linebackers Paul Worrilow and Justin Durant as run-stuffers and second-year cornerback Desmond Trufant in Richard Sherman-esque shutdown role.

Minnesota’s Mike Zimmer might be one of the only better defensive head coaches around. The former Bengals coordinator has overseen steady progress since taking over a defense that ranked 27th in efficiency by Football Outsiders’ DVOA in 2013.

It’s up to No. 19 this season.

Players drafted under Zimmer’s watch have made major impacts. Second-year linebacker Anthony Barr is poised to make his first Pro Bowl while former UCLA teammate and fellow linebacker Eric Kendricks won October’s defensive rookie of the month award.

Zimmer has been the anti-Quinn when it comes to strategic matters. He pulled off one of the shrewdest moves of the year by opting to play with the wind instead of taking the ball after winning an overtime coin toss in an eventual 21-18 victory over the Rams.

The Vikings are 3-1 overall in games decided by less than a touchdown, which reflects positively on the coaching staff. The success also catches the eye of the gambling world.

The Vikings face Football Outsiders’ fourth-toughest remaining schedule, so it remains to be determined if bettors will stay the course with them.

But if they bet on them against Rodgers and the Packers, it’s likely they’ll bet on them against any team.

Check below for full week 12 picks. Games are listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 38-26-2 (4-2 last week)

Saints plus-3 at Texans

Falcons minus-1 vs. Vikings

Bengals minus-9.5 vs. Rams

Buccaneers plus-3 at Colts

Jets minus-4 vs. Dolphins

Seahawks minus-3.5 vs. Steelers

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 29-33-4 (1-4-1 last week)

Falcons minus-1 vs. Vikings

Bengals minus-9.5 vs. Rams

Bills plus-6 at Chiefs

Cardinals minus-10.5 at 49ers

Steelers plus-3.5 at Seahawks

Patriots minus-2.5 at Broncos

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 26-36-4 (3-2-1 last week)

Falcons minus-1 vs. Vikings

Colts minus-3 vs. Buccaneers

Bills plus-6 at Chiefs

Chargers plus-4 at Jaguars

49ers plus-10.5 vs. Cardinals

Steelers plus-3.5 at Seahawks

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.