Getting past the noise: What would presidential hopefuls really do for Nevada?

By Ric Anderson, Scott Lucas, Kyle Roerink

Monday, Oct. 12, 2015 | 2 a.m.

They’ll come, they’ll argue, and they’ll sprint back to the campaign trail.

But one of the candidates who’ll visit Las Vegas over the next 10 weeks for national debates — the Democrats on Oct. 13, the Republicans on Dec. 15 — most likely will be elected president (Vice President Joe Biden could still enter the race). Then what would happen for Nevada?

What changes could be on the horizon? Which industries would stand to gain? Which might suffer? How would Las Vegas’ Latino community be affected? What about military funding, which is so crucial to Nellis Air Force Base?

The answers vary widely by candidate, of course. As the state prepares to spend two rounds in the national spotlight of the presidential campaign, here’s a candidate-by-candidate look at how Nevada might be affected if each were to become president.

Donald Trump

A Trump presidency might prompt more tourists to visit the Trump hotel off the Strip, but locals could see seismic changes in the state’s population, diversity and workforce.

Trump’s immigration proposals — including massive deportations, denying U.S. citizenship to children born in America to undocumented parents and halting the nation’s green card program — could cause a huge shakeup in Las Vegas and throughout the state. Let’s count the ways:

• Deportations could blow a hole in the workforce. Unauthorized immigrants comprise slightly more than 10 percent of Nevada’s workforce, the highest percentage in the nation, according to a 2014 study by the Pew Hispanic Center.

• If all illegal immigrants were deported from Nevada, the state’s population would decrease by 7.6 percent, or about 210,000 people. Gone, too, would be the money they pour into the economy and the taxes they pay. (Yes, they pay sales, excise and property taxes — $94 million annually, according to a recent study.)

For many of the remaining residents, Trump’s proposal to reduce the top tax rate for businesses from 35 percent to

15 percent might seem like a relief — if it doesn’t cripple the federal government and lead to a reduction in essential services.

Hillary Clinton

Clinton promotes so many issues Nevadans are passionate about, it’s almost like her platform was created for a candidate for state office.

Clinton is pushing for an expansion of the solar energy industry, including the installation of 500 million more solar panels and enough renewable energy to power every U.S. home. She hasn’t taken sides on net metering — the process that allows customers with rooftop solar arrays to sell power back to NV Energy — but her stance on renewables suggests Nevada’s solar industry likely would grow during a Clinton administration.

Clinton also has promised to double early childhood education programs, which would expand the number of low-income pre-kindergarten students in Nevada to more than 9,000 and cut tuition costs for the state’s community college and university students. In a state that routinely finishes at or near the bottom nationally for graduation rates and student performance, Clinton’s focus on education would provide a boost to the $1.4 billion in new education funding approved by state lawmakers this year.

Then there’s Clinton’s support of President Barack Obama’s executive actions to provide quasi-citizenship and to offer work permits for undocumented immigrants. For those estimated 210,000 people and their families, the contrast between Clinton and immigration hawks like Trump couldn’t be more clear.

Ben Carson

Carson supports several measures that would affect a broad swath of Las Vegans on a personal level.

One, he’s in favor of allowing people to opt out of Social Security, arguing that people are living longer and the solvency of the program is being strained. Given projections that the percentage of Las Vegas residents age 65 and older will grow from 13.1 percent today to 20.4 percent by 2030, an eligibility tightening would hit home for a significant portion of the valley population.

Then there’s Carson’s plan to eliminate Medicare and Medicaid, and replace the Affordable Care Act with an alternative that involves health savings plans. There are more than 566,000 Nevadans on Medicaid.

Finally, Carson has suggested establishing a flat income tax for which everyone would pay the same percentage — a policy that would affect anybody who receives a paycheck.

On immigration, Carson has expressed support for allowing undocumented immigrants to register as guest workers and then seek permanent status, so his policy wouldn’t cause as many ripple effects as Trump’s.

On social issues, Carson is as conservative as any candidate in the field. He is stridently against same-sex marriage, to the point he called for stronger religious freedom protections to ensure Christians aren’t forced to “violate their religious beliefs” by being required to participate in same-sex marriages. In Las Vegas, a Carson presidency could inhibit the growth of a lucrative new business opportunity for the wedding industry, which celebrated the Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing same-sex marriage.

Bernie Sanders

Sheldon Adelson and Steve Wynn have made it clear they loathe President Barack Obama’s labor and economic policies. So what’s more harsh than loathing? If Sanders is elected, we’ll find out.

Sanders is the worst-case scenario for Las Vegas resort operators because of his pledge to raise taxes on corporations, to support labor unions and to help low-income Americans by raising the minimum wage to as much as $15, an amount he called “reasonable.” Resort bosses would howl that such measures would leave them with unsustainable increases in wages and benefits, reduced profits and balance sheets in flames.

Then again, Strip resorts not only are still standing but are pouring a river of $14 cocktails after nearly eight years of Obama. Plus, there’s a significant body of research finding that modestly higher minimum wages can benefit low-wage workers without causing a reduction of jobs.

What’s not in question: A significant portion of the workforce in Nevada — tipped employees — would be unqualified winners with a Sanders presidency and an ensuing minimum wage increase. Nevada requires employers to pay workers the full minimum wage before tips, unlike other states where many employees earn as little as $2.13 an hour with the understanding their tips will make up the difference.

For the immigrant community, Sanders also would be a friend in that he supported Obama’s actions to shield undocumented immigrants from deportation. But Sanders also called for reining in a guest-worker program, saying it keeps young citizens from getting jobs.

Jeb Bush

The Bush campaign has signaled that military spending would be a high priority for his administration, which could mean good news for Nellis and Creech Air Force Bases and, by extension, the entire Las Vegas Valley. Bush has said he would work to lift congressionally imposed spending cuts that have reduced the military’s budget.

Bush also has strong ties with Nevada’s moderate Republican establishment, having received endorsements from Rep. Mark Amodei and Sen. Dean Heller. Those relationships could be big for Nevada, much in the way that the bond between Obama and Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid helped Nevada block efforts to store nuclear waste in Yucca Mountain, achieve designation of the 700,000-acre Basin and Range National Monument, receive $1 billion in stimulus funding for McCarran International Airport improvements and more.

Bush might not seem so friendly to some Nevadans with his support for expanding gun owners’ rights and banning abortions after 20 weeks. Nevada ranks high in gun deaths — it’s one of only five states where gun suicides outnumber road fatalities — and increasing the availability of guns is a touchy subject. Plus, not only did moderate Republicans beat back an attempt this year in the Legislature by conservatives to loosen gun restrictions, lawmakers passed no recent laws restricting abortion clinics or providers.

Marco Rubio

How would a Rubio presidency affect Nevada? On immigration, it depends on which Rubio shows up.

The first-term senator worked on a bipartisan reform bill that drafted a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in return for increased border security. But when the bill reached the House, he opposed it.

That said, Rubio has sounded restrictive on immigration on the campaign trail. He said he wouldn’t support an amnesty plan until the borders were secured and suggested there could be a broader debate about a path to citizenship in “10 or 12 years.”

As the Southwest bakes in a long-term drought, Rubio’s general opposition to laws that combat climate change also could come into play. Rubio doubts the role of human activity in causing climate change. Meanwhile, scientists estimate the average temperature could rise by 6 degrees in Las Vegas by 2100, which could have dire effects on air quality, fire risk and water resources.

But Rubio has ties to Las Vegas, having spent his teenage years here, and his father was a member of the Culinary Union. Nevada being on the president’s mental map could have advantages.

Carly Fiorina

No increase in the minimum wage. Fewer government regulations on businesses. Elimination of the estate tax and capital gains taxes for investments in small businesses.

Fiorina supporters say the candidate’s platforms would be great for Nevada businesses, which would see improvements to their bottom lines because of reductions in expenses. That, in turn, would allow them to expand and add jobs, which would boost the state’s entire economy.

Fiorina opponents say minimum-wage workers would lose buying power as inflation marches on while their compensation stagnates, and less regulation opens a Pandora’s box of potential problems such as wage-and-hour unfairness, predatory consumer practices and environmental damage.

Speaking of the environment, Fiorina has argued against emissions regulations in California, saying they wouldn’t make a difference, and voiced opposition for cap-and-trade measures during an unsuccessful run for Senate in 2010.

On the tech side, a Fiorina presidency could be good for Las Vegas, given her experience as a former chief executive at Hewlett-Packard and her work with AT&T.

Joe Biden

The vice president may be full of surprises if and when he launches a bid, but at this point, it feels like his presidency would be an extension of Obama’s. It’s the Democratic version of George H.W. Bush following Ronald Reagan.

There are some differences between Obama and Biden on policies and issues, but there aren’t many, and they often can be measured in inches instead of miles.

In 2012, for instance, Biden said he’d favor legalizing gay marriage, well before Obama expressed support for it. But Obama followed suit and said that while he would have preferred to address the issue on his own terms and timeframe, “all’s well that ends well.”

On other issues, Biden disagreed with Obama on the 2009 troop surge in Afghanistan and had qualms about the raid in which Osama bin Laden was killed.

Again, though, Biden largely is seen as being a close partner of Obama’s. Both are pro-choice and pro-union. If you want a view into how Las Vegas could be impacted by Biden as president, the last seven years is a good place to start looking.

Rand Paul

The most sweeping effect of a Paul presidency in Nevada would involve the fate of federally-owned land. Paul wants the federal government to turn that land over to the state to manage, a big deal given the feds control about 85 percent of Nevada’s acreage.

For environmentalists, that’s a doomsday scenario — ranchers, miners, developers and others running roughshod over sensitive desert landscape, spoiling and depleting what little water is left and destroying flora and fauna.

So who’s in Paul’s corner on the issue? Cliven Bundy, most notably. The Bunkerville rancher came away from a recent meeting with Paul saying he was “in tune” with the candidate’s land ownership proposal.

Reminder: Bundy staged a standoff with federal authorities who were trying to enforce a legal order for Bundy to pay $1.2 million in grazing fees he refused to pay and has said, “I don’t recognize the United States government as even existing.”

Ted Cruz

Cruz takes much of his economic policy from the pro-business GOP playbook — fewer regulations, a simplified tax code — but his proposal to end the Export-Import Bank could hurt some Las Vegas businesses. The Ex-Im Bank is a federal credit agency that provides loans and credit insurance to American companies that export goods. Some local small businesses have come out passionately in favor of continuing funding of the bank, saying it allows them to compete internationally.

John Kasich

The Ohio governor and former House member is more moderate than many of his opponents, having taken issue with Republican leaders who cut poverty programs and saying he was open to considering Obama’s plans for an immigration overhaul.

Chris Christie

The New Jersey governor supports corporate tax rate cuts, an income tax structure with three rates for all taxpayers and a repeal of the Affordable Care Act. But he doesn’t fit neatly into any left-to-right box. He once was pro-choice but now supports a 20-week abortion ban, and opposes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants but approved in-state tuition for them.

Martin O'Malley

The former Maryland governor is somewhere left of Clinton and right of Sanders.

Local kids weigh in on qualities they hope for in the next president

High school seniors

“A good president should realize that it is impossible to satisfy the needs of every individual, therefore he should focus on the needs of the majority.”

“The next president should focus on illegal immigration and giving amnesty, therefore improving the economy and reducing the size of the lower class.”

“A good president is one who isn’t afraid of what others think; he is honest, compassionate, hardworking, encouraging, smart and carries himself or herself with humbleness and integrity.”

“A good president is someone who is a good businessman or leader, someone who is good at making tough judgment calls toward keeping the U.S. safe. A good president is seen as the backbone of the nation, its CEO, so he has to have a good way with words and involve the people in his decisions.”

“A good president is someone who is compassionate, someone who understands and appreciates the hard work of everyday people who make America what it is.”

Eighth graders

“A good president makes good choices. He or she should show leadership. A good president is someone who can have ideas that will help the world a better place. A president should know how to be kind and generous.”

“The next president should fix global warming.”

“A good president puts the people before himself. He defends the Constitution and leads his people to a better tomorrow. In times of war, a good president does not hesitate to awaken the war machine we know as America. I’d like to see the next president balance our debt and turn America back into an economic powerhouse. I believe illegal immigration should stop, but legal immigration should be encouraged. Things should be made in America again to create more jobs.”

“The next president should lower taxes, help out more poor people, make insurance an easier concept and make Obamacare easier to use.”

“I would like that the next president would help the immigrants to have better jobs, to make safer the streets of Nevada, to have more opportunities as a student to get into a good college.”

Third-graders

“I want the next president to have smoking illegal because it is bad for your lungs and kids and adults died from that. Can you please do that?”

“Being a good president is being brave, honest and generous, because I think some people feel left out and uncared for.”

“I would like the next president to take away guns and give less homework because people die from guns in wars and some kids do not need homework.”

“A good president is honest, brave, polite and respectful. Also a good president needs to spend some time with his family.”

“The next president should sell robotic puppies.”

“A good president is respectful. A good president is kind to everyone.”

“I want him to do good things ... no more drugs, no more smoking, no guns, no sweets.”

“A good president is cooperative with everyone. The next president should make world peace.”

CORRECTION: | (October 12, 2015)