Demographic changes will leave GOP with tough choice in coming years

By Scott Lucas

Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2015 | 3:22 p.m.

Tonight, the nation’s political eyes will be trained on the Democratic presidential debate at the Wynn Las Vegas. But in the coming decades, the nation’s eyes will be trained on Nevada, as the state’s rising number of Latino voters will reshape American politics — and leave national Republicans with a tough choice, according to a panel of political demographers who spoke at Spago this afternoon.

“Predicting partisan advantage from demography has a long and somewhat checkered history,” said Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, pointing to predictions — never fulfilled — of permanent Republican or Democratic dominance.

So while caution may be in order, Norman Ornstein, a longtime scholar at AEI, said that the increasing importance of Latino voters would be impossible to ignore. “The United States is moving relentlessly from a minority white country to a majority minority country,” he said.

According to Ruy Teixeira, a political scientist at the Center for American Progress, the electorate will not only include more minorities but will increasingly be made up of older voters.

The rising wave of Latino voters presents a challenge for Republicans, who tend to underperform with them. As the number of minority voters increases, Democrats will tend to do better in states like Nevada, as well as Colorado, Florida and Ohio.

For Republicans to remain competitive, they have to solve what Ornstein called a “great dilemma” — either play for white voters on nativist issues to offset rising numbers of minority voters or change elements of their policy positions, especially on immigration — to appeal to Latino voters.

It’s a tricky balance but one that could be pulled off. “If Republicans decide to put Latinos in play, they could make inroads,” Teixeira said.