Bern’s-Eye View: Mountain West football picks Week 7

By Taylor Bern

Friday, Oct. 16, 2015 | noon

The most dangerous part about this week is thinking you know what’s going on. It’s the middle of the season and teams are settling into their spots in the standings, but give it a couple of weeks and what I think I know about these teams could be flipped on its head.

There’s still enough time for someone to emerge from the pack and make a run, whether it’s a surprise contender for the West Division title or an unexpected bowl berth from a team like UNLV or New Mexico. So as confident as I am in some of these picks — and I like this week’s slate more than most — I’m reminding myself that a sign of a bad or even mediocre team is inconsistency, and since a lot of these teams fit that category, I’m half expecting everything to go awry.

Hopefully that doesn’t happen, but this week and next might be the best time all year to fade me. We will see.

Note: UNLV picks will appear in the live blog on the day of the game.

FRIDAY

Boise State (minus-9.5) at Utah State

6 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• I’ve decided that it’s just best to not step in front of this Boise State (5-1, 2-0) train until it looks like it’s slowing down. Utah State (3-2, 2-0) would be the best team in the West Division but unfortunately for the Aggies, the alignment is not up to them. Tonight is their only chance to make a run in the Mountain, and I don’t think they’ll be able to do it.

Pick: Boise State — Loss

SATURDAY

Air Force (minus-3.5) at Colorado State

12:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

• What is Colorado State (2-4, 0-2) going to be this season? First-year coach Mike Bobo has two overtime losses against Minnesota and Colorado and blowout losses against the two best teams in his division, Boise State and Utah State. It’s possible the Rams end up slotting in right behind the Broncos and Aggies, or perhaps their current spot right above Wyoming is the correct one. At this stage, I wouldn’t be surprised either way but after five straight games picking CSU (1-3-1 ATS), I’m backing the Falcons (3-2, 2-0).

Pick: Air Force — Loss

UNR (minus-6) at Wyoming

1 p.m., ESPN3

• They’re begging you to take the Wolf Pack. So I will.

Pick: UNR — Loss

Hawaii (plus-5) at New Mexico

4 p.m., Root Sports/Mountain West Network

• It feels strange to back the Lobos (3-3, 1-1) as favorites but until the Rainbow Warriors (2-4, 0-2) actually score away from Hawaii, how could you do anything else? I really thought Hawaii was going to be decent this year, but it appears they’re just waiting for the inevitable end of coach Norm Chow’s tenure.

Pick: New Mexico — Loss

San Diego State (plus-2.5) at San Jose State

7:30 p.m., ESPNU

• This is for front-runner in the West Division, and if San Jose State (3-3, 2-1) plays the entire game like it did last week’s second half at Sam Boyd Stadium, the Spartans should be fine. I don’t think that’s going to happen, though, and I’ll go with a straight-up win for the underdog Aztecs (3-3, 2-0).

Pick: San Diego State — Win

Last week: 4-2

Season: 27-17-1

2014 record: 49-37

Taylor Bern can be reached at 948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Taylor on Twitter at twitter.com/taylorbern.