Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Week 3 NFL game of the week and picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest

Tony Romo’s injury sends betting odds sprinting away from Cowboys

Brandon Weeden

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Dallas Cowboys’ Brandon Weeden walks the field before an NFL football game against the Philadelphia Eagles, Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015, in Philadelphia.

Pick the winner against the Vegas point spread: Falcons at Cowboys

Which side do you like in Atlanta at Dallas? (Public Consensus year to date: 2-0)
Falcons -2 — 66.9%
Cowboys +2 — 33.1%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

9/20/15: NFL Games

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees, right, scrambles under pressure from Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive end George Johnson in the first half of an NFL football game in New Orleans on Sunday, Sept. 20, 2015. Launch slideshow »

Starting the season 2-0, by default, should increase an NFL team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.

It’s true for eight of nine unbeaten teams through two weeks of action this year, according to local sports books. The lone team that’s seen their odds shoot the other way is the Dallas Cowboys, and for good reason.

Dallas has gone from 14- to 20-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook as its health fortune from a year ago has vanished. The Cowboys came relatively out of nowhere to win 12 games last season — their over/under win total was 7.5 — and score the fifth-most points in the NFL behind an offense that only lost five starts to injury.

They could eclipse that number in three games with the 10 a.m. kickoff today at their home AT&T Stadium against the Atlanta Falcons, and the damages are particularly costly. Quarterback Tony Romo, who broke his collarbone last week, will join Dez Bryant, who suffered a broken foot in week 1, on the sidelines with the duo of Dallas’ best players not likely to return until November.

For all the razzing Romo has taken throughout his career, the 35-year-old veteran is one of the most valuable players in the NFL on the point spread. The game against the Falcons demonstrated he’s worth almost an entire touchdown, as the line went from Dallas minus-4.5 before Romo got hurt to Atlanta minus-2 in the aftermath.

Two of the three competitors in the Sun’s annual handicapping contest may think the adjustment has gone too far as they picked the Cowboys plus the points in the required game of the week wager. The trio had to make five other selections off of the South Point betting board, with the full list of picks available at the bottom of the page.

Money continues to stream in on Atlanta for a change. The game is the single matchup between 2-0 teams on the schedule, but neither the Cowboys nor the Falcons fit the common profile of an undefeated team from a betting angle.

In the first two weeks, the Falcons only received crumbs of action. They beat the betting public by defeating both the Philadelphia Eagles as 3-point underdogs and the New York Giants as 2.5-point underdogs to become the most improbable 2-0 team by the odds.

Atlanta received treatment Dallas didn't in trimming from 40- to 20-to-1 to win the Super Bowl, but other evidence still shows the market’s hesitance. At William Hill sports books, the Falcons have attracted only 1 percent of the cash in the futures market, which is tied with the Carolina Panthers for the lowest total among the ranks of the unbeaten.

That could be subject to change because the Falcons carry the look of a team the public loves to get behind. In other words, they’re often times exhilarating to watch on offense.

Atlanta sits sixth in offensive efficiency through three weeks in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. Quarterback Matt Ryan ranks in the NFL’s top five with 661 passing yards. Top receiver Julio Jones leads the league with 22 receptions and falls second behind Antonio Brown with 276 yards.

It’s no wonder the Falcons are drawing the week 3 volume because they look like the Starfleet next to the Cowboys’ wagon-train offense. Far removed from the Romo, Bryant and running back DeMarco Murray triumvirate of a year ago, Dallas will start Brandon Weeden, Terrance Williams and Joseph Randle in those roles against Atlanta.

Weeden labored in his one outing as charioteer in Romo’s place last year, going 18-for-33 for 183 yards and one touchdown to two interceptions in a 28-17 upset loss to Arizona— and that was with Bryant and Murray. It was Weeden’s eighth straight loss both straight-up and against the spread in a game he started, dating back to his rookie season in Cleveland.

Overall, the 31-year-old Weeden has gone 5-16 straight-up and 8-12-1 against the spread as an NFL starter. The ground game doesn’t appear prepared to assist Weeden in a major way based on the returns from the first two weeks.

Dallas’ rushing attack is second-to-last in the NFL at gaining 3.4 yards per carry after finishing third at 4.6 last season.

The good news comes on defense, where Dallas is playing much better in surrendering 4.4 yards per play for the second fewest in the league. Outside linebacker Sean Lee, who missed all of last season with a torn ACL, won NFC Defensive Player of the Week honors after the Eagles win and sits third in the NFL with 23 tackles.

Atlanta is also improved on that side with new coach and former Seattle defensive coordinator Dan Quinn installing many of the principles that turned the Seahawks into the NFL’s best defense the last two years. The Falcons are up to 13th in defensive DVOA through two weeks after falling to last by a wide margin last season.

It’s no surprise that three of the teams’ four games this year have gone under the point total — the over/under is 45 Sunday — with the one over coming by a point in the Cowboys’ 27-26 win over the time management-challenged Giants.

Dallas’ narrow victory in the final seconds was also the only time this season the teams didn’t cover the spread as it closed a 6-point favorite over New York. Nothing that’s happened on the field would suggest these two teams aren’t practical Super Bowl contenders.

The betting market just isn’t affording the Falcons or the Cowboys that amenity yet.

Check below for all of the week 3 picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest with games listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 8-4 (4-2 last week)

Rams plus-1 vs. Steelers

Texans minus-6.5 vs. Buccaneers

Eagles plus-1.5 at Jets

Ravens minus-2.5 vs. Bengals

Cowboys plus-1.5 vs. Falcons

Dolphins minus-2.5 vs. Bills

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

2015 Record: 6-6 (3-3 last week)

Steelers minus-1 at Rams

Eagles plus-1.5 at Jets

Cowboys plus-1.5 vs. Falcons

Cardinals minus-6.5 vs. 49ers

Bills plus-2.5 at Dolphins

Chiefs plus-6.5 at Packers

Taylor Bern

2015 Record: 6-6 (4-2 last week)

Patriots minus-13.5 vs. Jaguars

Falcons minus-1.5 at Cowboys

49ers plus-6.5 at Cardinals

Bears plus-14.5 at Seahawks

Bills plus-2.5 at Dolphins

Chiefs plus-6.5 at Packers

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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