UNLV basketball: 5 big questions for Mountain West play

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 24, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The UNLV basketball team has made it through the gauntlet of non-conference play with an encouraging 7-6 record, but there are still more questions than answers surrounding the Rebels as they get set to open the Mountain West portion of the schedule on Wednesday at Colorado State. A look at the five most important situations to monitor:

Can the Rebels survive without Dwayne Morgan?

Junior forward Dwayne Morgan has emerged as UNLV’s best player this season, but hip and shoulder injuries have limited him to just eight games. The latest setback, suffered against Duke on Dec. 10, has kept him out of the last four games and there is still no timetable for his return. If Morgan’s season is in jeopardy, the Rebels are going to have a hard time replacing him.

Freshman center Cheickna Dembele has gotten the starting nod at center since Morgan went down against Duke, but he’s raw and doesn’t offer as much defensive versatility as Morgan. Senior Christian Jones returned from an ankle injury and looked okay against Kansas. Freshman forward Troy Baxter provides a little offensive pop, but he got hurt against Kansas and is awaiting X-ray results on his knee.

None of those three can make the kind of positive impact Morgan does. On the season, UNLV has been outscored by 11.3 points per 40 minutes with Dembele on the floor. Jones’ plus/minus rating isn’t much better at -10.9 per 40 minutes. Baxter is also in the negative at -6.5. Morgan’s mark of +7.8 is the best on the team (among players with at least 100 minutes).

Simply put, there is no Morgan replacement on the roster. If he is out for an extended period of time, it will fall on Marvin Menzies to mix and match his rotation based on individual matchups. Luckily for UNLV, there don’t appear to be any dominant frontcourts in the Mountain West, but expect the Rebels to have issues against top big men like UNR’s Cameron Oliver and New Mexico’s Tim Williams.

Which freshmen will step forward?

UNLV’s five-man freshman class has contributed to varying degrees so far — Dembele has started four games, while Djordjije Sljivancanin has only played 39 total minutes — but it’s difficult to judge young players in blowouts against non-conference opponents. In that sense, the Mountain West schedule should provide more even competition and give a better idea of which rookies are future cornerstones.

Dembele has been the most prominent freshman so far, as the 6-foot-11 center has taken over in the middle and flashed a high ceiling as a defensive rim protector. Baxter has also earned consistent playing time in the frontcourt and solidified a role for himself going forward. The most intriguing player to keep an eye on over the next two months, however, is Zion Morgan. The Chicago native started slow, but he’s earned more minutes in recent games (12.5 minutes in the last four contests) due to his tenacious defense at point guard.

With Jalen Poyser and Jovan Mooring looking more like natural shooting guards, there is an opportunity for Zion Morgan to seize a larger role if he continues to defend.

Can Tyrell Green keep it up?

The most surprising storyline of 2016-17 has been Tyrell Green’s emergence as a legitimate offensive catalyst. He’s provided consistent production for a team starved for offense (No. 219 in adjusted offense according to KenPom.com), and he’ll need to keep playing at a high level if UNLV is to compete in the Mountain West.

Green has never been asked to carry such a heavy load, so there’s always a chance that a downturn is coming in the season’s second half. But he has worked hard to expand his game, and that may insulate him from cold streaks. He’s evolved from being a single-skill player (jump shooting) to being able to score in a variety of ways. On nights when his jumper isn’t falling, Green can post up, dribble drive or hit the offensive glass to get his points. That versatility should protect him from any extended cold streaks.

Will Menzies land a big recruit?

Menzies has done a good job on the recruiting front since taking the job, as Dembele and Baxter already look like future impact players. But you get the sense that some fans are waiting for a big, four-star recruit to commit to UNLV before they fully buy into Menzies’ rebuilding efforts.

With Troy Brown (Oregon) and Charles O’Bannon (USC) coming off the board recently, the highest-profile target is now 2017 big man Brandon McCoy, a 6-foot-11 San Diego native rated as the No. 11 player in the country. UNLV is in his final five, and he recently spent a few days in Las Vegas as his high school team competed in the Tark Classic.

Can the Rebels land McCoy or someone equally exciting by the end of this season? Probably not, just because in-season commitments are somewhat rare (with O’Bannon’s announcement being an exception). The next signing period doesn’t come around until April 12, 2017, and that’s when UNLV’s recruiting should begin to heat up again.

How many games will they win?

UNLV has gone 8-10 in Mountain West play in each of the last two seasons, so the bar hasn’t been set particularly high. And with the league looking as bad as it has in years, there may be a chance for the Rebels to make some noise earlier than anticipated.

Is it possible that Menzies could win eight games this year? KenPom.com has UNLV ranked ninth in the MWC, but the margin between the Rebels and the teams immediately ahead of them — Utah State, Colorado State, Fresno State, Wyoming and New Mexico — is razor-thin. The Rebels will be favored in four (maybe five) home games, and so far Menzies has shown that he can beat the teams he should beat.

Eight conference wins might be pushing it, but given reasonably health, six or seven certainly wouldn’t be a surprise.

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