Trump gets a Russia opening, but the path is risky

By David E. Sanger, Eric Schmitt and Michael R. Gordon, New York Times News Service

Saturday, Dec. 31, 2016 | 2 a.m.

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to reset relations with Russia, may have been tossed a lifeline Friday by President Vladimir Putin. The Russian leader, skilled at keeping several steps ahead of his adversaries, announced he would not retaliate in kind against the Obama administration for imposing new sanctions and expelling Russian diplomats from the United States.

That clears the way for Trump and Putin to declare that they are starting anew — just what both men have publicly called for.

“Putin is going out of his way to not take Obama seriously,” said Rolf Mowatt-Larssen, who spent decades in the CIA tracking Russia while Putin was rising in the KGB. Instead, he said, “he is making a good-will gesture, presumably with the hope and expectation that Donald Trump will respond in kind.”

On Friday afternoon, Trump did just that, on Twitter.

For effect, Trump “pinned” the post to the top of his Twitter feed, ensuring that it will remain the first message seen on his page. The Russian Embassy in Washington retweeted the post within minutes.

Now, the question is whether the mutual admiration pact will open new chapters on issues like Syria, Ukraine, the Middle East, the future of NATO and the development of new classes of nuclear weapons.

But moving too far, or too fast, in that direction would create enormous risks for Trump, from Capitol Hill to Europe.

No one is more suspicious of Putin and his intentions than members of the Republican Party establishment. And they, like Obama, are certain to see Putin’s gesture — including inviting the children of U.S. diplomats to enjoy the Christmas trees at the Kremlin — as a ploy.

The investigations into the Russian hacking efforts to influence the 2016 election are also a major impediment. It is unlikely that Trump can derail them, and they have been embraced by most of the Republican leadership.

Still, Trump will most likely be receptive to Putin’s overtures. In recent days he has told associates he sees little upside to what he considers needless fights with Russia, and he has said he sees potential in maintaining a working relationship with Putin. Trump has often said he sees benefits in cooperating with Russia in fighting the Islamic State in Syria.

Putin appears to be counting the days until Trump is in the Oval Office.

Despite a failing economy, the Russian president has been pursuing for the past four years what most Western analysts see as a plan to reassert Russian power throughout the region. First came the annexation of Crimea and the shadow-war in eastern Ukraine. Then came the deployment of nuclear-capable forces to the border of NATO countries, as Moscow, working to fracture the power structures in