10 big questions ahead of International Fight Week, UFC 200

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 2, 2016 | 2 a.m.

When Jon Jones told Daniel Cormier he would “literally kill” him, in an off-camera incident later made public two years ago, the then-champion’s ominous tone and steely expression was almost enough to take the threat seriously.

Jones and Cormier sounded like convicted psychopaths gunning for each other in the prison yard leading up to their first fight. Nowadays, their arguments take a tenor more reminiscent of children playing nana nana boo-boo on the playground.

There’s no disputing the enmity between Jones and Cormier has lost some luster ahead of their main-event rematch at UFC 200 next Saturday at T-Mobile Arena.

Instead of brawling in the MGM Grand lobby, they bickered over a candle metaphor in their latest dual media appearance.

“He may be 28, but he’s lived on this Earth much longer in reality with the long nights and all the crazy stuff he’s done,” Cormier said of Jones, who then interrupted to protest the statement as “craziness.”

“It’s the truth,” Cormier continued. “You have been burning the candle at both ends for a long time.”

“Where was your candle at when I beat you the first time?” Jones asked.

The question is if the light heavyweights can revive their rivalry during the heavy promotional cycle before fight night early next week. Here’s a prediction that they will — to an extent.

Jones admits to not harboring as much hatred toward Cormier anymore, but the position doesn’t seem mutual. Perhaps feeling jilted after going from fan favorite in the first meeting to the foe this time around, Cormier is the angrier of the two before UFC 200.

Cormier is the one nudging Jones, something he’s undoubtedly retained a knack for. That should push into at least one genuine eruption before the two enter the octagon.

That’s our first of 10 unique questions and predictions heading into International Fight Week. Check out the rest below.

Will Brock Lesnar and Mark Hunt make it out of the first round?

Ready for a surprise? Seventy-four percent of fights involving Lesnar and Hunt in the UFC have gone past the first round.

Still, it would be a task to find anyone picking something other than Hunt first-round knockout, Lesnar first-round TKO, or maybe, Lesnar first-round submission, in the UFC 200 co-main event. It’s simply hard to imagine two 270-plus pound behemoths surviving each other’s need for destruction for long.

Prediction: Either way, there’s no way. This matchup is bound to speed up a pay-per-view that will otherwise be slow-moving due to three title fights.

Will there be a new champion?

This exempts Jones vs. Cormier, since they both hold titles, as well as the interim featherweight championship bout between Jose Aldo and Frankie Edgar since it’s a given someone will walk away with the belt.

That leaves three possibilities for a new face realizing their dream — lightweight Eddie Alvarez against Rafael dos Anjos at UFC Fight Night 90 on Thursday, women’s bantamweight Claudia Gadelha versus Joanna Jedrzejczyk at "The Ultimate Fighter" 23 finale Friday or Amanda Nunes facing Miesha Tate on Saturday. All three challengers are underdogs, but the collective odds imply a 66 percent chance that one of the champions goes down.

The figure is low mostly due to Jedrzejczyk only coming in as a minus-140 (risking $1.40 to win $1) favorite over Gadelha.

Prediction: Going with the odds on this one. I’d pick all the champions in their individual matchups, but not with enough confidence to shun the chance of one upset.

Will Ronda Rousey show up?

Expect plenty of retrospectives all week on important moments that bridged the gap between UFC 100 and UFC 200. And the truth is, no fighter in those last seven years has meant more to the promotion than Rousey.

It would be a shame if she couldn’t be recognized in some fashion, though totally conceivable given how far she’s strayed from the UFC since getting knocked out by Holly Holm last November. There’s little doubt she’ll be in the arena Saturday, as "her man” Travis Browne opens the pay-per-view against Cain Velasquez.

She hid out backstage at his last fight, though.

Prediction: Rousey keeps her distance. She’s given no indication of being in any hurry to return to fighting, and won’t start now.

Will Georges St. Pierre’s comeback fight be announced?

In case last month’s pay-per-view didn’t give it away, the UFC likes to use its biggest events to announce other big events.

The promotion, in fact, has used International Fight Week to unveil future fight cards in each of the last two years. The problem this year is that eight of 10 champions are currently already scheduled to fight.

One of the exceptions is new middleweight champion Michael Bisping, the targeted opponent of former welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre in his planned comeback. Bisping is scheduled to appear at the UFC Fan Expo, which runs Friday through Sunday, but there are no publicized plans for St. Pierre to be in Las Vegas.

Prediction: St. Pierre will, and should, get what he wants. But negotiations with the UFC have been so protracted already, there’s no reason to assume it gets done this week.

How many expletives will Conor McGregor and Nate Diaz drop?

More than 3 million people have watched the first news conference with McGregor and Diaz that took place ahead of their fight in March at UFC 196. It stands to reason that everyone in town early for UFC 200 and the Fan Expo will gather at 11:30 a.m. Thursday at T-Mobile Arena when the two reconvene to promote their UFC 202 matchup on Aug. 20.

McGregor is nothing if not a showman, and Diaz doesn’t take grief from anyone. They’re going to give the fans what they want and exchange banter so bizarre it’s beyond forecast.

Topics in their first promotional go-around included but were not limited to balloon animals, touch-butt games in the park and coffee fetching — all interspersed with extremely colorful language.

Prediction: 65. There should be parental advisory stickers hanging outside T-Mobile Arena.

Will the new interim featherweight champion ever get the chance to unify the titles?

This won’t be up to either Aldo or Edgar. The decision is squarely in McGregor’s court given the power the UFC has granted the lineal champion.

Momentarily humbled after losing to Diaz at UFC 196, McGregor said he intended on going back to the 145-pound division to face either Aldo or Edgar. That didn’t last long as he was pleading for a Diaz rematch about a week later, and despite a brief delay, ended up getting his wish.

Aldo and Edgar are both desperate for a shot at McGregor, and the payday that comes with it.

Prediction: Obviously, the answer isn’t coming until at least after UFC 202. If McGregor loses to Diaz again, it would likely drive him back down to featherweight to defend his title. But I think he beats Diaz this time around to ensure he’s not back at 145 pounds in a timely enough fashion to stay the champion.

Will Bellator claim bragging rights?

Both champions defending their belts at UFC 200 previously held titles in other major promotions. Mixed martial arts have progressed past the place where every fighter outside the UFC is considered second-rate.

Alvarez has a chance to continue in a long line of fighters establishing themselves elsewhere only to win gold in the octagon, but it’s another former Bellator lightweight champion who may have the best chance to overtake the division long-term. Will Brooks makes one of the more anticipated octagon debuts in a while on Friday against Ross Pearson to start a run at the title.

Brooks won his last eight bouts in Bellator, including two victories over Alvarez rival Michael Chandler.

Prediction: Brooks beats Pearson but never claims UFC gold. He’s as talented as any other lightweight, but the division is too stacked to pin hopes on any individual fighter.

Will the pay-per-view record fall?

UFC President Dana White was outspoken for more than a year with his desire for UFC 200 to wind up as the biggest event in promotional history. The only way to guarantee that is by breaking the pay-per-view record, which UFC 100 still holds with an estimated 1.6 million buys.

Three of the UFC’s last seven numbered cards have come close to eclipsing that mark, thanks almost entirely to McGregor and Rousey. It’s a blow having neither of them on UFC 200 when White once hoped to feature them both.

It’s going to come down to whether having the world’s best fighter, Jones, and the biggest draw in the history of the company, Lesnar, can make up for their absence.

Prediction: Nope. It might get marginally close, but the demand for both Jones vs. Cormier and Lesnar has waned since their respective high points.

Is the sale happening?

This might be saving the biggest question for last, at least in terms of the future and financials. FloCombat is sticking to its story indicating Lorenzo and Frank Fertitta III have agreed to sell the UFC for $4.2 billion to a group consisting of three different companies.

The UFC has disputed the report, but news of a sale has been widely rumored for nearly two months. A deal of that magnitude would take time to finalize, so if terms were agreed upon two weeks ago as FloCombat reported, International Fight Week makes for a natural site for an announcement.

Prediction: There’s too much clamor here to drown out. An update is imminent.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.