Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Should Nevada’s Joe Heck be afraid of Donald Trump?

Donald Trump at South Point

Mikayla Whitmore

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a rally Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016, at South Point.

Across the country, Republican politicians have begun distancing themselves from their party’s presidential front-runner, Donald Trump, for fear of what a Trump nomination might mean for Republicans’ down-ballot chances. Not in Nevada.

Many of Nevada’s top politicians have pledged to stand behind the party should Trump be selected as the nominee. Gov. Brian Sandoval; Reps. Joe Heck, Cresent Hardy and Mark Amodei; and Sen. Dean Heller all have said they would support the GOP nominee, whomever that may be.

That’s not an endorsement: Hardy and Heller support Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, and Heck and Sandoval haven’t endorsed anyone, although Sandoval caucused for Rubio. But Nevada politicians appear hesitant to break with the pack. If the party chooses Trump, Trump for president they’ll be.

Sandoval “does not agree with every position made by the candidates, but once an eventual nominee has been selected, he believes it’s in the best interest of the party to come together and win in November,” Sandoval spokeswoman Mari St. Martin said.

Neither Sandoval nor Heller faces an election this year.

Heck, though, is embroiled in a fierce battle against Democratic former Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto for the U.S. Senate seat Harry Reid will vacate when he retires at the end of his term. Heck has been critical of Trump’s proposals to build a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border and to temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States.

“You can’t say you’re going to, you know, take 1.6 billion people and stereotype them,” Heck told the Hill.

Hardy is fighting for re-election in a district he wasn’t expected to win in 2014 and again is not favored to win. He told the Atlantic in December he would support Trump if he were the nominee.

“I’m a Republican first,” Hardy said. “I am going to support the Republican nominee, because I believe that that nominee is going to be by far — not just a little bit, by far — better than the alternative.”

Rep. Mark Amodei, who is expected to coast to re-election in the 2nd Congressional Distict, has backed Rubio since former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush dropped out of the race but said he too would support the eventual Republican nominee.

Trump’s only actual endorsement from an elected official in Nevada came from first-term state Assemblyman Brent Jones, who endorsed Trump at a January rally at South Point.

“You see, there are many people who are getting excited about Mr. Trump,” Jones said. “This is the establishment’s nightmare.”

Trump is, in many ways, exactly that, but it’s what his supporters like. A CNN entrance poll of Nevada Republican caucus goers found 61 percent thought the next president should be from outside the establishment. Of those, 70 percent said they supported Trump.

There’s concern that anti-establishment sentiment could trickle down the Republican ballot, hurting incumbents seeking re-election or anyone viewed as an establishment figure. Almost all Republican caucusgoers in Nevada said they were dissatisfied or angry with the federal government.

“It’s the tail wagging the dog now,” said David Damore, a political science professor at UNLV. “This is the Republican base they’ve been cultivating since the 1980s. Now, it’s the vast majority of their party.”

A recent poll of Republican primary voters showed 42 percent said they could not see themselves supporting Trump, down from 66 percent in June.

Another concern is that moderate voters will not vote for any candidates perceived to be linked to Trump or, even worse for the party, will sit out the election altogether.

Asked whether Trump’s impact down ballot was worrisome for Heck, his campaign declined to answer, instead providing talking points on Heck’s accomplishments in the House.

Damore said Heck’s campaign has reason to be worried if Trump tops the ticket, as do the campaigns of Sens. Mark Kirk in Illinois and Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. All three are running for swing seats.

“If I’m Joe Heck, if I’m Johnson, if I’m Kirk, I’m a little worried,” Damore said.

At the same time, Trump’s candidacy hasn’t been all bad for the GOP. Turnout for Nevada’s February caucuses more than doubled 2012 turnout, which party members attribute at least in part to Trump’s momentum.

“The Trump effect has driven a lot more independent and Democratic voters that have been disillusioned with the progressive policies over the last seven years to vote for one of our candidates,” said Ed Williams, chairman of the Clark County Republican Party. “That will definitely have an impact.”

If people vote Republican down the ballot, Trump’s momentum could benefit the entire party. That, coupled with successful GOP efforts to increase turnout, is what party officials are counting on.

“The Nevada Republican Party now has staff in the field earlier than ever before, and we will continue to build out our ground game in the coming months,” state party Chairman Michael McDonald said.

Still, much can change before June — and even more before November.

In one sense, a split field through the Republican convention in July could help maintain voter interest. On the other hand, it could further fracture the party and whittle away the time needed to consolidate the GOP around one candidate.

That’s why Republican political consultant Greg Ferraro urges patience.

“There’s a lot of space and time between now and then,” Ferraro said. “I don’t know what lessons are going to be learned that are applicable in June or November. People go back to focus on their lives and on their jobs and their families.”

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