Down the ticket, primary races take shape in Nevada

By Megan Messerly

Monday, May 30, 2016 | 2 a.m.

If the success of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders is any indication, this could be the year of the outsider in American politics. But will the anti-establishment sentiment that has fueled their campaigns trickle down to statewide and local elections in Nevada?

That’s one of several key questions that will be answered in the run up to the June 14 primary election. Early voting kicked off Saturday, with a number of offices from school boards to Congress hanging in limbo.

The Nevada primary also is expected to be a reckoning over a $1.4 billion tax package passed by the 2015 Legislature, and some incumbent Republicans already have been fighting to justify their votes in favor. To top it off, the outcome likely will be decided by a fraction of Nevada’s electorate; historically poor turnout is expected, so a small number of votes could mean the difference between a candidate’s victory or loss.

As months of campaigning comes to a head, here are some of the highlights to watch.

3rd Congressional District (Republican)

• Main rivals: State Senate Majority Leader Michael Roberson and businessman Danny Tarkanian

• The storyline: Roberson, the state Senate majority leader, bears a significant legislative record that is both beneficial and baggage in his bid for the district. He helped Gov. Brian Sandoval pass the $1.4 billion tax package to provide additional money for the state’s public education system, among other areas in which he worked with the governor. Viewed by many as the “establishment” Republican in the race, Roberson touts the support of the state’s top (and well-regarded) Republican politicians — Sandoval, Sen. Dean Heller and Lt. Gov. Mark Hutchison. But Tarkanian, a businessman who has unsuccessfully run for office four times since 2004, carries the outsider banner. And that could be a strength in a year characterized by backlash against “career politicians.”

• Tipping points: On paper, Roberson appears to have a lot going for him — political experience, a legislative record and several high-profile endorsements. But Tarkanian, who could easily be dismissed as a perennial candidate, has much to draw on, from the Trump phenomenon to any antipathy Republican primary voters feel for the 2015 tax vote. Pundits say that if primary voters are happy with the way things are, that probably bodes well for Roberson. If they’re upset with the status quo, Tarkanian might eke out a primary win.

The stakes are high in the primary, as the seat has been a stronghold for Republicans — Democrats have won it only once since it was created in 2003. Rep. Joe Heck, R-Nev., is leaving it for a run at the Senate.

• Other issues: On immigration, Roberson says the first priority is building a wall at the U.S.-Mexico border, and only then should there be a plan for immigrants to work toward legal status. Tarkanian also supports a wall, as well as taking money away from sanctuary cities and a system to better track visa holders. On federal government spending, Tarkanian has said his priority is closing tax loopholes for special-interest groups, while Roberson has argued for significant budget cuts.

• Other candidates: Kerry Bowers, Michele Fiore, Sami Khal, Andy Matthews, Annette Teijeiro

3rd Congressional District (Democrat)

• Main rivals: Synagogue leader Jacky Rosen and trial attorney Jesse Sbaih

• The storyline: Months after a host of high-profile Democrats declined to run for the seat, Rosen, the leader of a Henderson synagogue, jumped into the race. She is a first-time candidate and has never held office but comes with plenty of high-profile Democratic endorsements, including Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, state Senate Minority Leader Aaron Ford and the AFL-CIO. Sbaih, a Jordanian immigrant and trial attorney in Henderson, is the Democrat with the best chance of giving Rosen a run for her money. He made national headlines this spring after he accused Reid of encouraging him to end his campaign because a Muslim could not win the race — an accusation that the Reid camp vehemently denied. Sbaih also has pumped $500,000 of his own money into the race, though it does not appear he has spent much of it so far.

• Tipping points: The difficulty that Rosen faced coming into the race was the same one Sbaih has confronted: They both started out as essentially unknown candidates. Rosen has an edge in overcoming that barrier due to the significant support she has from elected Democrats and local unions. But Rosen’s late start means she ended March with a little over $150,000 in the bank, which pales in comparison to the $600,000 Sbaih had stashed away. Unless Rosen has raised significantly more money in the past couple of months, she has much less to work with than Sbaih. The question now is whether Sbaih will actually spend his personal money to give him a leg up in the race.

• Other issues: Rosen backs Hillary Clinton, while Sbaih supports Bernie Sanders. Sbaih is in favor of free college education, and Rosen has said she thinks it should be “reasonable, affordable and accessible” but isn’t certain it should be free. On foreign policy, Rosen has said the biggest issue is reaching consensus with other countries to address global terrorism and other issues. Sbaih has said the United States has been too quick to send troops to war and American forces should be deployed only when there is a clear and present danger to national security.

• Other candidates: Barry Michaels, Steve Schiffman, Alex Singer, Neil Waite

4th Congressional District (Democrat)

• Main rivals: Former Assemblywoman Lucy Flores, state Sen. Ruben Kihuen, philanthropist Susie Lee

• The storyline: What started off as a four-way primary has dwindled essentially to a race between these three: Flores, a former assemblywoman; Kihuen, a state senator; and Susie Lee, a philanthropist. Poll numbers showed that Flores started off with a significant name-recognition advantage, largely due to her 2014 run for lieutenant governor. But internal polling from Lee’s campaign from a respected polling firm shows Lee has closed that gap, with Kihuen trailing. Still, Kihuen has significant support from Sen. Harry Reid and several high-profile unions, most significantly the Culinary Union and the AFL-CIO, both of which will mobilize their resources to help him over the next couple of weeks. Flores, meanwhile, has collected hundreds of thousands of dollars thanks to fundraising emails from presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders on her behalf.

• Tipping points: This one will likely come down to who has the best ground game. Flores has tried to couch herself as the most progressive candidate, aligning herself with Sanders, while Kihuen was a big Clinton backer, but the policy differences that separate the candidates are relatively small. Watch for television ads, but phone calls and door knocks will get people out to vote. Kihuen and Flores both have political experience, which gives them a boost but also provides fodder for attacks from opponents. Lee is focusing on her community involvement, though she has had to fend off some attacks over her wealth.

• Other issues: Kihuen and Flores support the Iran nuclear deal. Lee opposes it and has called Iran an “exporter of terrorism” and a “major destabilizer in the Middle East.” All three candidates say they would have supported the so-called “Gang of Eight” immigration-reform bill as a compromise bill. They also all support raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour.

• Other candidates: Morse Arberry Jr., Brandon Casutt, Dan Rolle, Mike Schaefer, Rodney Smith

State Senate District 6 (Republican)

• Main rivals: Assemblyman Erv Nelson, Assemblywoman Victoria Seaman

• The storyline: Republicans controlled both houses of the state Legislature, including a narrow edge in the Senate, during the 2015 session. That’s something the Democrats are trying to change this year, and their biggest target is Senate District 6, the seat being vacated by Sen. Mark Lipparelli, who is not running for re-election. But it’s also a significant focus for Republicans, who have two candidates vying for the nomination: Nelson and Seaman, who were both in the Assembly during the 2015 session. (Nelson resigned his post a few months ago to move into Senate District 6.) The biggest issue separating Nelson and Seaman is their stances on the tax package, which included the extension of existing but temporary taxes called “sunset taxes” and creating or raising others.

• Tipping points: Seaman has gone hard after Nelson for his stance on taxes, couching his vote on the tax increase as a betrayal of his constituents. Nelson had campaigned on an anti-tax platform during his first run for office, but later declared in a speech on the assembly floor before voting for the 2015 tax package, “I was uninformed. I made a mistake.” Nelson, meanwhile, is trying to soften the blow of the taxes by emphasizing which businesses don’t have to pay them. It all will come down to how much voters know about the taxes and whether that matters to them at the ballot box.

Republican Assembly primaries to watch

There’s a significant effort underway by a number of staunchly anti-tax Republicans in the state to defeat a long list of Republican incumbents in the Assembly who voted for the 2015 tax package. The state party has not endorsed any incumbent Republican who voted for the increase, in many cases explicitly endorsing the anti-tax candidate or not endorsing in the races at all.

What remains to be seen is how much the tax increase will affect the primary elections. One side says no one cares about the taxes the Legislature approved, especially when they learn that a significant amount of money went toward funding education. The other side says people are furious.

Here’s a list of races to watch where incumbents who voted for the increase face challenges from anti-tax candidates:

• District 2: John Hambrick (incumbent) vs. Clayton Kelly Hurst (anti-tax candidate)

• District 9: David Gardner (incumbent) vs. Diana Orrock and Minddie Lloyd (anti-tax candidates)

• District 13: Paul Anderson (incumbent) vs. Leonard Foster and Steve Sanson (anti-tax candidates)

• District 21: Derek Armstrong (incumbent) vs. Blain Jones (anti-tax candidate)

• District 23: Melissa Woodbury (incumbent) vs. Swadeep Nigam (anti-tax candidate)

• District 29: Stephen Silberkraus (incumbent) vs. Amy Groves (anti-tax candidate)

• District 36: James Oscarson (incumbent) vs. Rusty Stanberry and Tina Trenner (anti-tax candidate)

• District 37: Glenn Trowbridge (incumbent) vs. Jim Marchant (anti-tax candidate)

• District 40: P.K. O'Neill (incumbent) vs. Chris Forbush, Al Kramer and Sam England (anti-tax candidate)

Democratic Assembly primaries to watch

Three Democratic primaries will all but determine who will win in November, because their districts hold significant Democratic voter-registration advantages. The Democratic Assembly caucus has endorsed in the races, but most of the candidates still face a fight in the primary.

• District 8: Jason Frierson, running unopposed

• District 10: Chris Brooks (caucus-endorsed candidate) vs. German Castellanos

• District 34: Shannon Bilbray-Axelrod (caucus-endorsed candidate) vs. Zach Conine and Manny Garcia