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March 29, 2024

5-MINUTE EXPERT:

What is the Paris climate agreement? And why should we care?

France Climate Countdown

Francois Mori / AP

The slogan “DECARBONIZE” is projected on the Eiffel Tower as part of the COP21 U.N. Climate Change Conference on Friday, Dec. 11, 2015, in Paris, France.

Did you know?

According to NASA’s climate scientists, between 1906 and 2005:

• Carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rose 38 percent

• Methane levels rose 148 percent

On Dec. 12, 2015, representatives from nations around the world came together in France and agreed to “strengthen the global response to the threat of climate change.” The accord was designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperatures from rising up to 2 degrees C above where they were before the Industrial Revolution.

The agreement, shared initially by 195 nations, was officially enacted Nov. 4, 2016, and requires each participating country be transparent about its processes, and actively attempt to reach the goals outlined by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). All countries are currently part of the agreement, but President Donald Trump announced in May that he would withdraw the U.S., and scientists fear that will have dire consequences.

Agreement goals

The more greenhouse emissions enter the atmosphere, the warmer Earth gets. The Paris agreement’s goal breaks down into two parts, according to the UNFCCC:

1. Keep the average global temperature rise well below 2 degrees C and as close as possible to 1.5 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. This recognizes a cap on how far Earth’s temperature can rise before the world is locked into a more devastating future.

2. Actively reduce emissions to stay below the cap. Current and future governments must agree to create and follow certain protocols (like drastically reducing use of fossil fuels) to keep the planet from warming any further.

U.S. participation

California wildfires

Dry conditions and 70 mph winds (some of the worst recorded in the region) fueled new fires in Southern California last week, devastating homes and air quality. In 2017, more than 1.2 million acres in California burned, costing $500 million-plus in fire fighting, according to The New York Times.

According to The New York Times, with just over 4 percent of the world’s population, the United States is history’s biggest carbon polluter. (China currently emits more carbon, but the U.S. had a century’s head start.) As a global leader, U.S. participation in the agreement is crucial. However, Trump announced in May that he would withdraw the country from the agreement, citing disputed economic implications.

How soon can that happen?

Under its terms, the U.S. can’t exit the agreement until Nov. 4, 2020 (the day after the next presidential election). Syria and Nicaragua, the only two nations that didn’t initially sign, have since committed. The U.S. is now the only country not committed past 2020.

Why the agreement is important

Every country, regardless of its participation in the Paris agreement, is affected by climate change. Some impacts already are apparent:

• Critical ice, including glaciers and ice sheets, is melting worldwide

• Many native plant and animal species are on the decline, risking extinction

• Rainfall, wildfire, flood and drought events are on the rise across the globe

Impacts if the U.S. does not participate

Aside from the ongoing environmental impacts, the U.S. will face economic and diplomatic ramifications if it does not participate in the agreement. According to The Hill:

• A Heritage Foundation report predicted the nation’s 400,000 nonrenewable energy jobs would be saved, but some of the 3 million clean-energy jobs counted by the Department of Energy last year could be put at risk.

• Economists noted that the private sector and several states would continue to grow clean-energy efforts, shifting away from oil and coal.

• Climate leaders such as Europe and China could withhold cooperation in other diplomatic situations.

• Exxon Mobile and other large U.S.-based businesses warned that the U.S. could lose key energy policy negotiating powers.

• Countries could threaten the U.S. with carbon tariffs.

Best-case scenario

The rate of temperature increase almost doubled in the past 50 years, putting the world on track to hit a 2°C increase in just two years.

By 2050, if all goes to plan, emission levels will have dropped 66 percent from 2010 levels

Unavoidable outcomes with a 2°C increase include:

• Drought rates would increase, leaving the Mississippi, Amazon, Danube (Europe) and Murray Darling (Australia) river basins with a 20-40 percent decrease in runoff.

• By 2080, 24 percent more of the projected global population would face a water shortage.

• In the 2080s, six times as many people would experience 100-year flooding compared with the 1980s.

• By 2100, global sea levels are expected to have risen half a meter.

Some scientists think the 2°C cap is too generous. A 1.5°C rise is dangerous, but a 2°C degree rise is edging close to the point of no return.

The European Geosciences Union noted that the half-degree difference correlates to a major variance in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather, water availability, agriculture yields, rising sea levels and other natural disasters.

Extreme worst-case scenario

If the goals outlined in the Paris agreement are not adhered to at all, emissions will continue to rise through 2100 and Earth will warm 4.8°C. In fact, many of the following effects will occur even before the 4.8°C threshold.

• By 2045, it will be impossible to reduce greenhouse emissions.

• By 2050, emission levels will be 108 percent above the levels they were in 2010.

• Flood, fire, severe storm and drought risk will continue to increase around the world.

• Habitable ranges for plant and animal species will decrease by 50 percent, and critical ecosystem function will be severely impaired, leading to the extinction of innumerable organisms.

• Agriculture production will suffer inadaptable negative consequences, leading to a severe global food security crisis.

• By 2080, 38 percent more of the projected global population will face a water shortage.

• In the 2080s, seven times as many people will experience 100-year flooding compared with the 1980s.

• By 2100, global sea levels are expected to have risen one meter.

• Seven times as many people will experience 100-year flooding compared to the 1980s.

• Outdoor workers (construction, agriculture, etc.) will suffer, decreasing global productivity more than 20 percent.

Key dates:

Global mission

In addition to the 1.5°C threshold, the Paris climate agreement has a few other requirements for participating countries.

• 1760-1840: When the Industrial Revolution swept the globe in the 18th and 19th centuries, humanity’s impact on the natural world began in earnest.

• 2016 broke the record for the planet’s hottest year since the 19th century

• In 2018, all parties must meet to take stock of their collective efforts toward developing “nationally determined contributions” (NDC) plans.

• Starting in 2020, all parties must reassess and update their NDC or NDC framework and be transparent about progress.

• Starting in 2023, every five years, all parties must meet to assess the collective progress toward moderating the effects of climate change.

• All parties must come up with and implement NDC plans by 2025 or 2030 on how to tackle climate change.

• Developed countries are encouraged to pay into the Green Climate Fund, which acts like a scholarship to help developing countries adapt to climate change.

Sources: Sources: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, European Geosciences Union, World Resources Institute, NASA, National Geographic, New York Times, The Hill