UNLV Rebel guard Amauri Hardy (3) drives the lane during an exhibition game against the West Coast Baptist College Eagles at the Thomas & Mack Center, Friday, Oct. 25, 2019.
Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2019 | 2 a.m.
The 2019-20 season isn't an easy one to predict for UNLV basketball.
A substantial portion of the roster has turned over from last season, and the players who have returned will be playing under a new head coach, in a new system that is radically different than the one they played in under previous head coach Marvin Menzies.
How will the Rebels adapt to T.J. Otzelberger's leadership, and what will the on-court product look like this year? These 68 predictions should set a good baseline for what to expect in 2019-20:
1. How many games will UNLV win? 16
2. Who will be UNLV’s high scorer? Amauri Hardy, 14.3 points per game
Hardy didn’t get the starting nod in UNLV’s exhibition game, and he and Otzelberger may spend much of the season trying to compromise on playing style (Hardy prefers his dribble-attack game, while Otzelberger emphasizes quick ball movement). But the fact remains that Hardy is the Rebels’ best option when it comes to putting the ball in the basket. He’ll get plenty of minutes and plenty of scoring opportunities.
3. Who will lead the team in rebounding? Mbacke Diong, 6.8 rebounds per game
4. Who will lead the team in assists? Amauri Hardy, 4.8 assists per game
Despite the fit/style issues, the exhibition showed that when Hardy is in the game, he’ll be handling the ball a lot. He racked up 10 assists in 21 minutes in that contest, and though he won’t face a defense as poor as West Coast Baptist College again (well, maybe San Jose State…), he knows how to get the ball to open shooters. Somewhere around five assists per game should be within reach.
5. Who will lead the team in steals? Jonah Antonio, 1.1 steals per game
6. What will be Amauri Hardy’s highest scoring game? 29 points, Dec. 4 at Fresno State
7. What will be UNLV’s best win? vs. New Mexico, Jan. 18
New Mexico was picked third in the Mountain West preseason poll, and at first glance the Lobos look loaded. But the jury is still out on coach Paul Weir, as he guided a similarly talented team to a disappointing 14-18 record and a 7-11 showing in the MWC. I think UNLV can pick off UNM at the Mack in the first matchup this season.
8. What will be UNLV’s worst loss? vs. Eastern Michigan, Dec. 28
9. How many games will UNLV score 100 points? Two
10. What will be UNLV’s highest scoring game? 104 points, Jan. 15 vs. San Jose State
11. Who will lead the team in double-doubles? Mbacke Diong (five)
12. Will any player record a triple-double? No
13. What will be the highest attendance at the Thomas & Mack Center? 14,070, Feb. 12 vs. UNR
Otzelberger isn’t just tasked with turning around the Rebels on the court—he also has to win back a fan base that has been eroding for the past half-decade. It won’t be easy, not with the Golden Knights (and soon the Raiders) dominating the local sports landscape. But the rivalry game with UNR should draw well, especially with the villainous Steve Alford at the helm of the Wolf Pack now. Last year’s game at the Mack drew an announced crowd of 15,786, so cracking 14,000 this year is a reasonable expectation.
14. What will be UNLV’s home record? 12-6
15. What will be UNLV’s longest winning streak? Four games (Nov. 18-26)
16. Who will lead the team in minutes? Elijah Mitrou-Long, 32.5 minutes per game
17. Who will be the Rebels’ most accurate 3-point shooter? Jonah Antonio, 39.8 percent
18. How many 3-pointers will the team make? 265
Last year’s South Dakota State team attempted 802 long-distance shots; while still adjusting to Otzelberger’s system, I think UNLV will finish with 720 such attempts. If they connect at a 36.8-percent clip, which would be slightly better than the national average, that comes out to 265 makes on the season.
19. Will UNLV make a 3-pointer in every game? Yes.
20. Will UNLV win on a buzzer-beater? No
21. How many alley-oop dunks will Mbacke Diong have? 18
22. Which player will have the highest usage rate? Amauri Hardy
23. Which player will have the most efficient points-per-possession average? Jonah Antonio
24. What will be UNLV’s Mountain West record? 8-10
The Rebels’ early conference schedule looks a little light, and a 5-2 start against MWC competition seems attainable. But the backside of the slate is difficult and wins will be increasingly hard to come by. Look for UNLV to start fast and struggle to the finish line under .500 as depth becomes a factor later in the season.
25. Will a UNLV player be named All-Mountain West first team? No
26. Will UNLV win a Mountain West tournament game? Yes
27. Which Rebel will have the best plus/minus rating? Jonah Antonio
Individual plus/minus rating is not a perfect metric, but it can be instructive in giving a broad idea of how a team performs when certain players are on the court. With the style UNLV intends to play this season, I don’t think anyone will fit better than Antonio. He’ll make a bunch of 3-pointers, scrap on defense and give the Rebels their best chance to be competitive. His plus/minus rating will reflect that at the end of the year.
28. How many games will UNLV score more than 1.00 points per possession? 18
29. What’s the most 3-pointers UNLV will make in a single game? 16
30. Which player will make the most 3’s in a single game? Jonah Antonio, six (Jan. 18 vs. New Mexico)
31. Where will UNLV peak in the KenPom.com ratings? No. 105
32. Where will UNLV finish in the KenPom.com ratings? No. 165
33. Who will lead the Rebels in 20-point games? Amauri Hardy, five
34. How many different starting lineups will UNLV use? Six
35. What will be Bryce Hamilton’s highest scoring game? 23 points, Feb. 18 vs. Colorado State
36. Will Feb. 29 at San Jose State be Donnie Tillman’s last regular-season game for the Rebels? Yes
Tillman went through the NBA draft process last year in order to gauge his stock, and in the end he decided to return to college. A transfer to UNLV followed, and now that he’s been granted immediate eligibility by the NCAA, it’s difficult to see him sticking around for more than another season (barring a precipitous drop in play). Tillman will average 13 points and six rebounds, hit almost 40 percent from 3-point range and then declare for the draft again.
37-68. Which games will UNLV win and lose this season?
Nov. 5 vs. Purdue Fort Wayne — Win (1-0)
Nov. 9 vs. Kansas State — Loss (1-1)
Nov. 12 at Cal — Win (2-1)
Nov. 15 at UCLA — Loss (2-2)
Nov. 18 vs. Abilene Christian — Win (3-2)
Nov. 20 vs. Texas State — Win (4-2)
Nov. 23 vs. SMU — Win (5-2)
Nov. 26 vs. Jackson State — Win (6-2)
Nov. 30 at Cincinnati — Loss (6-3)
Dec. 4 at Fresno State — Win (7-3)
Dec. 7 at BYU — Loss (7-4)
Dec. 18 vs. Pacific — Win (8-4)
Dec. 21 vs. Robert Morris — Win (9-4)
Dec. 28 vs. Eastern Michigan — Loss (9-5)
Jan. 1 vs. Utah State — Loss (9-6)
Jan. 4 vs. Air Force — Win (10-6)
Jan. 8 at Boise State — Loss (10-7)
Jan. 11 at Wyoming — Win (11-7)
Jan. 15 vs. San Jose State — Win (12-7)
Jan. 18 vs. New Mexico — Win (13-7)
Jan. 22 at UNR — Loss (13-8)
Jan. 26 vs. San Diego State — Loss (13-9)
Feb. 1 at Colorado State — Win (14-9)
Feb. 5 at Utah State — Loss (14-10)
Feb. 8 vs. Fresno State — Loss (14-11)
Feb. 12 vs. UNR — Loss (14-12)
Feb. 15 at New Mexico — Loss (14-13)
Feb. 18 vs. Colorado State — Win (15-13)
Feb. 22 at San Diego State — Loss (15-14)
Feb. 26 vs. Boise State — Loss (15-15)
Feb. 29 at San Jose State — Win (16-15)
Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.
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