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This May 8, 2019, file photo shows Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo driving past Boston Celtics’ Aron Baynes during the first half of Game 5 of a second round NBA basketball playoff series in Milwaukee.
Thursday, Oct. 17, 2019 | 2 a.m.
This is going to be the best NBA season ever. Anyone who has spent time in basketball fan circles has surely heard that suggestion after a disruption to the league’s balance of power over the summer. The majority of the NBA’s brightest stars—including but not limited to Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Kyrie Irving—changed teams to stir excitement over a perceived new level of parity. Sports books took notice and acted accordingly. While casinos used to wait until September to post a complete menu of full-season betting options, many did so at the conclusion of free agency in late July. That means Las Vegas is flush with opportunities to bet on the NBA leading into opening night October 22. We dove into the odds all across town to find the best options in every category.
Championship futures
Milwaukee Bucks at 6-to-1 to win the NBA championship (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Stability is underrated. While teams that transformed their rosters in the offseason get all the attention, those that didn’t undergo major changes are unjustly ignored.
One team that didn’t make major changes just happens to be the team that was the best in the league by a considerable margin last year. Led by MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks won 60 games in the regular season, two more than anyone else, and outscored opponents by nearly nine points per game, almost three more than anyone else.
They shouldn’t trail anyone in odds to win the title but find themselves behind the Clippers and Lakers, at 7-to-2 and 4-to-1, respectively.
Houston Rockets at plus-950 (risking $1 to win $9.50), 6-to-1 to win the Western Conference (Circa Sports)
For years, the Rockets have been referred to as an all-time great team that never took off solely because of the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty. Houston may yet claim its championship given that the Warriors are expected to take a step back with Durant departed and Klay Thompson injured.
Houston returns practically the same team that dominated the rest of the league in the second half of last season, with one notable exception: Westbrook replaces Chris Paul as the second star next to former MVP James Harden.
Stock is down on Westbrook, but he’s younger and better than Paul.
Playoff propositions
Dallas Mavericks to make the playoffs at plus-170 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
It feels like the Mavericks’ big move has been forgotten, since it occurred in the middle of last season, but it’s every bit as impactful as anything from the summer free agent carousel. Trading for now-healthy former Knicks big man Kristaps Porzingis was a stroke of genius, as he can pair with last season’s Rookie of the Year, Luka Doncic, as one of the best young duos in the NBA.
Dallas also has one of the shrewdest front offices and coaching staffs in the league to give it an under-the-radar edge.
San Antonio Spurs to miss the playoffs at plus-170 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Gregg Popovich might be the best coach in NBA history and has repeatedly cost those who dare bet against him, but his run must end sometime. The decline could come this season.
San Antonio plays an increasingly antiquated style, with its two best players, LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar Derozan, heavily reliant on inefficient mid-range shots. Defensive efficiency helped overcome the handicap last season, when the Spurs finished with the West’s No. 7 playoff seed, but there are more teams realistically vying for the eight postseason spots this year.
Player award props
Michael Porter Jr. to win Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
All the hype is on Pelicans rookie Zion Williamson—who’s down to minus-175 to win the Rookie of the Year award—but once upon a time, the Nuggets’ Porter was just as highly touted. Porter was the top basketball recruit in the country in 2017 before committing to Missouri, where he suffered a season-ending lower-back injury after only a few games.
Complications from the injury left him unable to compete after the Nuggets drafted him in 2018, but reports on his progress are glowing out of Denver’s training camp. Porter is stepping into an enviable situation on one of the best teams in the league and could take off if he stays healthy.
Divisional futures
Boston Celtics to win the Atlantic at 4-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas Superbook)
Expect a battle at the top of the standings between the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston Celtics all year, with both having a chance of finishing first in the end.
Philadelphia has more star power with Al Horford joining forces with Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid, but Boston has a more naturally complementary starting five after sliding free agent acquisition Kemba Walker in at point guard. The Celtics also have a major coaching advantage with Brad Stevens over the 76ers’ Brett Brown.
Denver Nuggets to win the Northwest at plus-140 (MGM Resorts)
The Utah Jazz’s offseason splurge on veterans Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovich has made them the trendy pick, but the moves forced the team to sacrifice depth. That’s a big problem considering Utah’s roster has a high injury risk and the Jazz share a division with one of the deepest teams in the league in Denver.
The Nuggets won four more games than the Jazz last season and shouldn’t be available at plus-money.
Regular-season win totals
Los Angeles Clippers under 54.5 wins (MGM Resorts)
Kawhi Leonard and Paul George might be the best pairing in the NBA, but they aren’t going to play enough in the regular season for the Clippers to have one of the best records.
It’s uncertain how much time George will miss to start the season after two shoulder surgeries, and Leonard will rest regularly to preserve his body for the playoffs, as he did last season.
Chicago Bulls over 33.5 wins (Station Casinos)
Unlike last year, when the Bulls quickly started tanking in an effort to get a better draft pick, they’re going to try to win this season. Their moves made that clear—they acquired veterans Otto Porter Jr., Thaddeus Young and Tomas Satoransky to add to a group of emerging young talent headlined by Lauri Markkanen.
Don’t be surprised if Chicago makes a season-long push for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot.
This story originally appeared in Las Vegas Weekly.
