Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 4 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 1, 2020 | 2 a.m.

Not every week can be a winning week. No week should be as bad as last week.

There’s no way around it: For the first time this season, I got crushed. Week 3 was the steamroller.

My record was 5-11 picking every game against the spread last week — 1-5 on plays, 1-4 on leans and 3-2 on guesses.

Bad calls. Bad beats. Bad numbers. Bad breaks.

I suffered through them all.

It happens, and much like any NFL player would say, it’s ultimately all about how you respond. It’s a long season and no one gets through it without a losing week here or there.

To take a positive viewpoint, I’m just glad I got one out of the way.

A new week means new opportunity, and I’m excited to get after it.

Read below for picks on every Week 4 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. The overall record on the year picking every game stands 26-21-1. Check back later for a pick on Pittsburgh at Tennessee if it's rescheduled and reposted on betting boards.

Plays (6-10)

Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 at San Francisco 49ers One blowout against one of the worst teams in the league — a 36-9 win over the Giants as 3-point favorites — doesn’t mean the 49ers have navigated and gotten past their lengthy list of injuries. It’s hard to back the Eagles right now, but the lookahead line here was as low as 3.5, and a 4-point shift is too much.

Los Angeles Chargers +7.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers There’s only one 7.5 left in town — at Station Casinos — and it’s the only thing keeping this as a play. The Chargers have outgained their last two opponents, the Panthers and Chiefs, by a combined 199 yards despite losing both games.

Cleveland Browns +4.5 at Dallas Cowboys This would be a fair line, and perhaps even a lean to the Cowboys, if the teams were at or near full strength. But that’s not the case, as the Cowboys continue to carry highly impactful cluster injuries along the offensive line and defensive backfield.

New York Jets +1 vs. Denver Broncos Playing an undrafted first-year starting quarterback on the road with three day’s notice, as the Broncos will do with Brett Rypien here, is a recipe for disaster, even against the Jets, even in a year without fans in the stadium. These are the two worst teams in the league by Football Outsider’s DVOA ratings, and the Broncos just edge for the Jets for the bottom spot.

Leans (7-5-1)

Indianapolis Colts -2 at Chicago Bears Yes, they’ve played a weak schedule, but the Colts have the best point differential in the league at +39. The Bears have the worst point differential, +12, of any of the 3-0 teams and their late-game magic is going to run out eventually.

Seattle Seahawks -6.5 at Miami Dolphins Anecdotally, Seattle’s offense has looked like the best in the league. And the defense should be cut some slack considering it’s faced one of the toughest slates of opposing offenses in the league. Laying less than touchdown, therefore, seems acceptable.

Las Vegas Raiders +3 vs. Buffalo Bills Might be wise to wait for clarification on the Raiders’ injury situation but even if a couple players return, particularly linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski and an offensive lineman or two, this makes for good value. The Bills’ defense is struggling, giving up 6 yards per play, and the Raiders’ offense has been consistently, if quietly, strong.

Baltimore Ravens -13 at Washington Redskins With the market down on Baltimore following a poor Monday Night Football performance, which is presumably a driving factor of erroneously keeping this line below 14, now is the time to buy on the Ravens. And not (just) in this game but in futures as its +800 price to win the Super Bowl at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has value.

Atlanta Falcons +7.5 at Green Bay Packers Make all the Falcons' jokes you want, but this team is designed to be able to keep up in shootouts. And with a total of over/under 57 points and the Packers' defense ranking 28th in DVOA, this looks like a shootout.

Guesses (13-6)

Jacksonville Jaguars +3 at Cincinnati Bengals Given bettors’ curious fascination with the Bengals, I’m holding out hope that this line reaches 3.5. Against similar schedule strengths, the Jaguars’ net yard per play is .9 better than the Bengals’, and now they get extra time to prepare off of a Thursday Night Football appearance.

New England Patriots +7 at Kansas City Chiefs Not thrilled to bet against Patrick Mahomes, especially not after he threw for 385 yards and four touchdowns on the Ravens, but the Patriots’ defensive backfield is in better shape and coach Bill Belichick has an extra day to prepare. Chiefs -6.5, where this briefly dipped at some sports books before Monday Night Football, feels fairer.

Detroit Lions +4 vs. New Orleans Saints Both of these teams have performed better than their 1-2 straight-up records indicate, and both of them should be getting key players back this week. I’ll take the points as a default but look to buy on both going forward.

New York Giants +13 at Los Angeles Rams The Rams were priced as a mediocre team coming into the season. Now, after three strong showings and a 2-1 start, they’re being priced as one of the best teams in the league. The truth rests somewhere in between.

Minnesota Vikings +4.5 at Houston Texans This is a leap of faith that the Vikings weren’t too adversely affected from having to shut down their facility for two days because of a coronavirus scare. The number is a tad bit inflated, especially with the Vikings holding an edge in the coaching department.

Carolina Panthers +3.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals A strict number’s pick as the point spread is correct but it’s better to take the extra half-point on a field goal when left with nothing else to go off of.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.