Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 7 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2020 | 2 a.m.

I thought I had escaped what might be the worst beat of the NFL season so far.

I loved the Texans +3.5 against the Titans last week, but after the visiting underdogs fatefully lost the coin toss in overtime, I noticed the bet was missing from the spreadsheet I use to track all my action. I scoured all my mobile-app accounts and didn’t see anything on Houston there except for a small money line play either.

As Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson headed to the sideline shaking his head, I thought I had luckily dodged similar dejection. As Watson and I both figured, the Titans went 82 yards with relative ease to win 42-36 without the Texans ever getting a chance in overtime.

It wasn’t until about an hour after the game that I faintly recalled betting the Texans in person earlier in the week to secure a better number. I checked my wallet, and sure enough there it was — a loss after all.

The moral of the story? Bad beats will find you, I guess.

Houston’s collapse — it had a 98 percent win probability per ESPN after a late touchdown — turned what would have been a great 4-1 week on plays into a merely average one at 3-2. I also went only 7-7 picking every game, bringing the season total to 49-41-1 — 12-15 on plays, 16-11-1 on leans and 21-15 on guesses.

The swing of emotion hurt, but undaunted I proceed. Let’s get the win back in Week 7.

Read below for picks on every Week 7 game, separated into three confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (12-15)

Los Angeles Rams -5.5 vs. Chicago Bears Hide the straight-up records and this looks like a mismatch with the Rams at 1.3 net yards per play and +38 point differential to Chicago’s -0.2 net yards per play and +12 point differential. There’s also a situational edge for the Rams with the Bears traveling to the west coast for a primetime game in their second straight week on the road.

Houston Texans +3.5 vs. Green Bay Packers Everything about this matchup screams shootout, and it might be an unpopular opinion, but at this point in their careers, I’d rather backWatson than Aaron Rodgers in a shootout. Rodgers has been better this year but it’s closer than perceived especially considering Watson has thrown for 8.9 yards per attempt and a 68.5 completion percentage to his elder’s 7.9 yards per attempt and 65.5 completion percentage.

Pittsburgh Steelers +1 at Tennessee Titans Tennessee has won four of its five games by less than seven points, a trend that’s unsustainable in the long run. Pittsburgh has played a similarly weak schedule to Tennessee and beaten its opponents by a more convincing 12.5 points per game.

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks The Cardinals are coming off two of the most dominant performances of the year, where they outgained the Jets and Cowboys by nearly 3 yards per play, and yet this line hasn’t budged. The market remains skeptical, but Arizona has done enough to merit more of a positive adjustment than it’s received.

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Both teams are nearly identical in terms of EPA (expected points added) per play on both offense and defense. And the Bengals appear healthier, especially with Baker Mayfield appearing to be nursing shoulder and rib injuries.

Leans (16-11-1)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 at Las Vegas Raiders Grab one of the few remaining 3s while they’re available as most shops moved to 3.5 with news of a potential coronavirus outbreak along the Raiders’ offensive line. There are plus matchups for Tampa Bay either way as its defensive backs have shown an ability to wreak havoc on short passing games, the same style the Raiders prefer to employ.

New England Patriots -2 vs. San Francisco 49ers Sure, it amounts to anecdotal evidence, but how many times over the last 20 years have the Bill Belichick Patriots bounced back with a resounding performance after a dry spell that gets everyone down on them? San Francisco’s 24-16 win over Los Angeles as 2.5-point underdogs last week wasn’t quite as monumental as it’s being made out considering both teams were almost dead-even from a play-by-play efficiency standpoint.

New York Giants +4.5 at Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles remain too beaten-up, particularly along the offensive line, to consider backing. This would undoubtedly be too many points if the game was on Sunday, but first-year coaches like Joe Judge have traditionally struggled on Thursday Night Football, making picking the Giants much riskier.

Guesses (21-15)

New Orleans Saints -7.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Number looks fair based on this season’s performances alone, but the Saints may deserve a boost for the return of Michael Thomas, perhaps the most impactful receiver in the league, and coming off a bye. They’ve also played the sixth toughest schedule in the league according to Football Outsiders, which means some of their struggles might be overblown.

Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville’s defense is grading out as historically bad by a number of analytical rating systems. The Jaguars are an outlier in that regard, and it takes the market a while to properly price outliers.

Kansas City Chiefs -9.5 at Denver Broncos Call it overly simplistic, but I’m never going to be interested in backing a bad team against Patrick Mahomes with less than a double-digit spread. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a pair of victories over the Broncos by a combined score of 53-9 last year.

Washington Football Team pick’em vs. Dallas Cowboys Dallas’ makeshift offensive line couldn’t hold up against a mediocre Arizona defense; it’s really in trouble against a quietly great Washington defense. Dallas may still eventually get it together, but there’s too much discord to back the Cowboys at the moment.

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Detroit Lions Good luck figuring out this one between two teams that should be better based on talent but are consistently mistake-prone and predisposed to defensive lapses. After flip-flopping multiple times, I’m taking Atlanta solely because the line is on the right side of 3.

Buffalo Bills -13 at New York Jets I’ve picked the Jets all but one week this season, and at the moment it feels like my life’s biggest regret. So much so that I’m picking a ridiculously inflated side, and in my defense, the premium might be worth it because of the massive coaching mismatch between Sean McDermott and Adam Gase.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.