Weekend wagers: Bets on seven sports including NBA Playoffs, NFL Draft

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, April 23, 2022 | 2 a.m.

Many figured this year’s NFL Draft in Las Vegas would spur a record amount of betting options on the event.

It hasn’t worked out that way. Less than a week before NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell announces the first name outside of Caesars Forum next Thursday night, fewer draft proposition bets are available in Nevada sports books than the last couple years at the same time.

Some sports books have put them on the board — namely STN Sports, William Hill, BetMGM, Boyd Gaming and South Point — but the others are still holding out. It’s no secret why bookmakers aren’t rushing to add the markets ahead of time.

Many of them have been open to the fact that they’ve found it tough to turn a profit on the draft, where gamblers can gain informational advantages not as readily available in traditional games.

I’ve never bet the draft before — as intimated above, it’s a different skillset than handicapping sports — but it’s going to be the talk of the town heading into next week so I’ll capitulate in this edition of Weekend Wagers. Last week was a boon with a 4-1 record to get us comfortably into the black for the year, and a Draft bet will be one of several wagers on seven different sports this week that I hope keeps us going in the right direction.

Read below for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

NBA (1-0, $200): Minnesota Timberwolves +3 vs. Memphis Grizzlies (South Point)

$110 to win $100

Here goes nothing. As the lower-than-standard bet sizing may indicate, I don’t feel great about this play. But I don’t feel great about any sides on Saturday’s NBA board and haven’t been making numbers on totals all season. I feel obligated to include the NBA Playoffs in the column, however, so here’s the only spot on the board where I see some value. Memphis closed as a 2-point favorite in Thursday’s Game 3, where both teams had dominant stretches. Yes, the Grizzlies ultimately won but the Timberwolves also deserve credit for building a pair of 20-point leads even though they blew them. There’s no reason why an extra point should be added to Saturday’s spread. I can’t get this number any higher than Memphis -2, and think the betting market might be slightly overrating its second-half surge on Thursday.   

MLB (2-0, $350): Seattle Mariners -135 vs. Kansas City Royals (Wynn)

$270 to win $200

This column will stay pro-Mariners until the market catches up, or if it catches up. This looks like a short opener considering Seattle has a major edge on offense and another one on the mound against Kansas City in the second game of their series. Both the Royals’ Kris Bubic and the Mariners’ Matt Brash are promising young arms with good stuff but the latter is in another class when it comes to velocity. Brash has also been far better than Bubic overall to start the season, with each having made two starts apiece. Kansas City struggles enough to produce runs without having to take on an up-and-coming pitcher like Brash.

UFC (5-7, -$335): Clay Guida -110 vs. Claudio Puelles at UFC Fight Night (STN Sports)

$275 to win $250

No one wants to back a 40-year-old fighter, and in most cases, that’s understandable. This is one of the exceptions. The 26-year-old Puelles is yet to prove he’s in the same class as Guida, which makes a pick’em price borderline outrageous for this co-main event lightweight bout. Guida will be the best wrestler Puelles, a slick submission-grappler, has ever faced. The veteran should also be able to frustrate the relative newcomer with his relentless pace and unorthodox attack angles. It’s generally a good idea to avoid aging fighters but Guida hasn’t shown much signs of wear and has stayed competitive with wins in two of his last three fights. There’s no reason to think a sudden crash will happen now, so he’s worth taking at the small odds.

USFL (1-0, $200): New Orleans Breakers +127 moneyline vs. Tampa Bay Bandits (Circa Sports)

$150 to win $190.50

I may have spoiled this one last week with my future bet on New Orleans to win the reformed USFL altogether. But the same point stands: The Breakers might be the best team in the league. They’re considered a level below the Bandits, as evidenced by being a 2.5-point underdog here, but seem to have the highest-ceiling offense. Tampa Bay was more impressive in Week 1, overcoming two turnovers to blow out the Pittsburgh Maulers 17-3. But the Maulers are terrible, likely the worst team in the league. The Breakers had to beat decent opposition in the Philadelphia Stars, prevailing 23-17. This is where they can start to establish themselves as the team to beat, and I’d prefer backing them on a moneyline of +125 or better unless the spread happens to hit +3 before kickoff at noon Sunday.   

NASCAR (4-1, $450): Joey Logano +1447 to win Geico 500 (Circa Sports) and Brad Keselowski 15-to-1 to win Geico 500 (William Hill)

$100 to win $1,447 on Logano and $100 to win $1,500 on Keselowski

Consider this a heat-check pair of bets. I’ve been crushing NASCAR in this space, but that’s exclusively been through head-to-head matchups. Let’s turn it up a notch and try to hit an outright this week. Might as well in Talladega, with the notoriously volatile nature of superspeedway racing. Logano and Keselowski are two of the best at it, though. Keselowski has won six times at Talladega, including in one of two races last year. Logano has been trending downwards at superspeedways recently, but that’s more a case of bad luck getting involved in numerous crashes. In one of these events soon, he’s going to avoid trouble and be there at the end. Maybe that comes Sunday. Ford has traditionally performed the best at Talladega, and in Logano and Keselowski, I’m covering two of the best drivers representing that manufacturer.

NFL (0-0, $0): Travon Walker to be the first pick in the NFL Draft +200 (William Hill)

$100 to win $200

Several reputable reports have spread that Jacksonville general manager Trent Baalke prefers the Georgia edge rusher with the first overall pick next Thursday night. Even if others in the organization remain unsure and prefer Michigan’s Aidan Hutchinson, it’s ultimately his pick. It could all be a smokescreen, but this doesn’t feel like that. It feels like the Jaguars are legitimately torn between Hutchinson and Walker. It should be a pick’em as to who goes first overall, and most sports books are inching that way. William Hill has been more reserved, sticking with Hutchinson as the clear favorite at -170. I’d rather back Walker hoping the infamously stubborn Baalke sticks to his conviction and gets his way.

NHL (1-3, -$380): Vegas Golden Knights to make the Stanley Cup Playoffs +250 (William Hill)

$100 to win $250

There’s too much local negativity surrounding the Golden Knights, and it’s finding its way into the betting odds. Vegas should still be an underdog to make the playoffs with four games remaining, but it shouldn’t be this big of an underdog. Even publicly-available models that have been bearish on the Golden Knights’ postseason chances for months — such as Moneypuck — price this more like a +200 proposition. The Golden Knights control their own destiny, and importantly have a game against the team they’re most likely to catch — at the Dallas Stars on Tuesday. Vegas has the overall better team than anyone it’s going to play the rest of the way. That doesn’t guarantee victory, as this season has proved time and again, but it gives them a better possibility than this line implies.

Weekend wagers column year to date: 17-16, $402.50

Weekend betting column all-time: 259-246-1, $6,920.93 

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Devin Booker 5-to-1 to win NBA Finals MVP ($250 to win $1,125); Chris Paul 8-to-1 to win NBA Finals MVP ($150 to win $1,200); New Orleans Breakers 5-to-1 to win USFL title ($200 to win $1,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or