Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

Weekend wagers: Betting on six sports including a pair of Kentucky Derby plays

mint julep

Charlie Riedel / AP File (2019)

A Mint Julep is raised in the air at Churchill Downs before the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby horse race Saturday, May 4, 2019, in Louisville, Ky.

The gambling calendar keeps turning, with a newer betting phenomenon this weekend giving way to one of the longest-running events next weekend.

The 148th edition of the Kentucky Derby is a week away, and several local sports books — namely Circa, Westgate Las Vegas Superbook and William Hill — have updated their long-posted future odds in preparation. I’ll try to pick off a juicy price or two to cap this edition of Weekend Wagers at the bottom of the page.

That strategy certainly worked a week ago ahead of the NFL Draft, when I snagged Travon Walker at +200 (i.e. risking $100 to win $200) to become the first pick. Walker closed at -500 locally ahead of cashing in by going to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

That ensured a profit in last week’s column, albeit a slim one of $115.50 off a 4-3 record. But I’ll take that every time.

Read below for this weekend’s plays. Records are attached for each individual sport since the column restarted for 2022 post-football season with a cumulative tally at the bottom of the page. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas at publication time.

USFL (2-0, $390.50): Tampa Bay Bandits -1.5 vs. Houston Gamblers (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

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Tampa Bay Bandits quarterback Jordan Ta'amu (10) looks to pass against the Pittsburgh Maulers during the second half of a USFL football game Monday, April 18, 2022, in Birmingham, Ala.

For the third straight week, let’s point out the same idea as part of the USFL section: The New Orleans Breakers are the best team in the league. With that in mind, this line seems like an overreaction to the Bandits’ 34-3 loss to the Breakers last week. Tampa Bay wasn’t competitive, but it also had some bad luck with a -3 turnover margin. In the same game state, the Gamblers would have lost to the Breakers by even more. Houston has been wholly unimpressive, despite cashing a ticket for us in week 1, and has gotten outgained by more than 1 yard per play on the season. Tampa Bay has been far better than Houston on defense against better competition, and should be able to hold its own on offense too. There’s no reason this spread shouldn’t be on the other side of 3.

MLB (3-0, $550): Philadelphia Phillies +110 vs. New York Mets (Wynn)

$200 to win $220

I’ve been pro-Phillies, anti-Mets all baseball season. That hasn’t worked out so well this far, but it’s about to even out. This is a great spot for Philadelphia to carve into the National League East lead New York has built. Taijuan Walker is set to start for the Mets, but he’ll be on a tight pitch count after lasting only two innings in his first appearance before a hurt shoulder took him out. The Phillies’ Kyle Gibson should be more reliable. Philadelphia’s lineup is an embarrassment of riches, and it’s starting to break out. The Phillies might be four games back, but I still believe they catch Mets sooner rather than later.

UFC (5-8, -$610): Jake Collier +125 vs. Andrei Arlvoski at UFC Fight Night (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $250

The former UFC heavyweight champion Arlovski has revitalized his career at 43-years-old with a strange ability to seemingly take every razor-thin decision. I’m not sure that’s going to continue to work. Not against a fighter like Collier. While Collier’s not anything special and severely undersized after moving up from middleweight, he trafficks in high volume. He’s going to go after Arlovski, and not allow the slow-paced, distance-oriented type of fight the veteran prefers. It’s hard to see Collier finishing Arlovski, so this could be another tight decision, but the latter isn’t guaranteed to get the judges’ nod every time. This looks like a pick’em at worst.

NBA (2-0, $300): Milwaukee Bucks +185 series price vs. Boston Celtics (SuperBook)

$100 to win $185

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Boston Celtics forward Jayson Tatum (0) drives against Brooklyn Nets forward Blake Griffin (2) during the second half Monday, April 25, 2022, in New York.

What’s really more impressive: Sweeping a Nets’ team in the first round that’s been a disaster all season by a total of 18 points or taking one extra game to eradicate a mediocre Bulls’ team by a combined 74 points? Unlike the market, I’m not so sure it’s not the latter. The Bucks are playing at an extremely high level right now. That being said, the Celtics have been the better overall team since the start of the second half of the season. The betting market had largely been behind on their ascent, but it’s now caught up if not swung too far the other way. I didn’t really want to get involved with this series price since the Bucks will be playing without Khris Middleton, but I made the series price Boston -150. That leaves a big enough edge on Milwaukee to make a small bet unavoidable. 

NASCAR (4-2, $250): Chase Briscoe -120 head-to-head in Dover Cup race vs. Kurt Busch (William Hill)

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NASCAR Cup Series driver Kurt Busch, left, and Daniel Hemric head to driver introductions during the 25th annual Pennzoil 400 NASCAR Cup Series race at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway Sunday, March 6, 2022. Driver Martin Truex Jr. is at back left.

$240 to win $200

Chase Briscoe has been one of the best drivers in NASCAR this season, and it’s only a matter of time until the betting market starts pricing him accordingly. In the meantime, it’s worth betting on the 27-year-old Stewart-Haas Racing driver as often as possible — especially at tracks where he’s set up for success. He should be set up for success at a short, concrete track like Dover. The venue has not traditionally been one of the elder Busch’s better tracks either. Briscoe is probably a smart bet at 28-to-1 to win the race outright, but in any matchup against drivers who have been middling this season like Busch, he’s an easy bet.

Horse Racing (0-0, $0): Taiba to win the Kentucky Derby +630, Zandon to win Kentucky Derby at 8-to-1 (Circa & SuperBook, respectively)

$130 to win $819 on Taiba, $100 to win $800 on Zandon

No, these two horses don’t amount to bold calls or high prices, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they catch Epicenter and Messier on the odds board and close the two favorites at Churchill Downs next Saturday. So let’s get ahead of it now and start to build a series of Derby bets with what should end up as value prices. Taiba has only run twice, but he’s won both and been off the charts as far as speed numbers. Zandon, meanwhile, might have the best late speed in the race. They both come from high-pedigree backgrounds and have world-class trainers. Zandon might be Chad Brown’s best chance to get his first elusive Kentucky Derby win, while Taiba was trained by Bob Baffert before being transferred to Tim Yakteen. Baffert is banned from the Derby for two years after last year’s winning horse, Medina Spirit, from his stable tested positive for a banned substance.  

Weekend wagers column year to date: 21-19, $518

Weekend betting column all-time: 263-249-1, $7,036.43

Previous pending future wagers: Philadelphia Union 16-to-1 to win MLS Cup ($125 to win $2,000); Seattle Mariners +650 to win AL West ($100 to win $650); Devin Booker 5-to-1 to win NBA Finals MVP ($250 to win $1,125); Chris Paul 8-to-1 to win NBA Finals MVP ($150 to win $1,200); New Orleans Breakers 5-to-1 to win USFL title ($200 to win $1,000)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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