Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Divisional round sweats: Seven wagers to add to your betting card

Josh Allen yards leader

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) signals for a first down during an NFL wild-card football game Sunday, Jan. 15, 2023, in Orchard Park, NY.

One yard away.

That’s how close I was to cashing last week’s futures/prop bet on Tom Brady leading wild-card weekend in passing yards. As handicapped, Brady looked destined to take the top spot while piling on yards in garbage time late in the game.

He needed 25 yards to pass Josh Allen’s 352 yards in the Buccaneers’ final drive but fell painfully short. Brady led an open Mike Evans just inches too much on what would have been a minimum 40-yard completion onto start the drive, and then fired short pass way too hard at Julio Jones to end it.

His final stat line read 351 yards. It might not be one of the absolute worst beats I’ve ever taken in sports betting, but it’s a narrow miss I’ll remember for a long time.

The disappointment left the Sunday Sweats column a small loser to start the playoffs, going 3-4 for a negligible damage amount of $130.12.

That’s not going to slow me though as the divisional round looks even better and offers major opportunity.

Read on for this week’s Sunday Sweats with seven bets in six different categories with individual records attached. Plays placed outside the pick’em, will be tracked in the season-long record here with the standard being a bet to win $200 unless otherwise noted.

Tasty Total (9-12, -$625): Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs under 53 (STN Sports)

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Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) is sacked by Kansas City Chiefs defensive tackle Chris Jones, right, during the first half of an NFL football game Monday, Oct. 10, 2022, in Kansas City, Mo.

$165 to win $150

Neither the Jaguars’ nor the Chiefs’ defense are world-beaters but they’re both better than common perception. Kansas City’s defense specifically should be well-prepared with wrinkles to throw at Jacksonville after a bye week to open the playoffs. Add the familiarity of both coaches, and how well they know each other’s offensive principles, and this game may fall a bit short of expectations on the scoreboard. The total on this matchup in November at Arrowhead was 51.5, and it fell relatively easily under with the Chiefs’ 27-17 victory. This game should also wind up in the high 40s.  

Two-Team (Or Three-Team) Teaser (10-9, $230): Philadelphia Eagles -2 & Buffalo Bills pick’em at -120 (Caesars/William Hill)

$240 to win $200

Count me among the masses that locked in what must be at least the most-bet teaser in divisional round history — the Eagles -1.5 with the Chiefs -2.5 — earlier in the week. Kansas City has since moved out of range, however, to no longer leave the pairing with expected positive value. Not that swapping in Buffalo for Kansas City changes anything. This is still not a mathematically-sound teaser but we’ve run out of options, and taking the Bills through -3 to pick’em is a lot better than taking the Chiefs down to -3.5. I like the Bills better than the market anyway and don’t see it as very likely that they lose to the Bengals outright.

Moneyline Parlay (8-10, $679.57): Toronto Raptors, Utah Utes, Gilbert Burns & Dallas Cowboys at +759 (South Point)

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Gilbert Burns celebrates after fighting Stephen Thompson during their UFC 264 welterweight bout at T-Mobile Arena Saturday, July 10, 2021.

$50 to win $379.33

Somewhat mindlessly throwing together teams (and a fighter) from different sports taking place throughout the weekend paid dividends last week. So let’s run it back, except with more gambling this time. The Cowboys at +180 at the 49ers in the divisional round’s capper is my favorite NFL moneyline. South Point is one of two sports books with that market-high price, and also has better odds than average on the other three plays I’m throwing in here. The original plan was to use Arizona over UCLA as the college basketball leg for an even higher payout — more than 11-to-1 — but the game tips too early. Utah is a fine, though chalkier at -360, substitute against an outmanned Washington in its second game of a mountain round trip. The Raptors should be a slight favorite, not slight underdog, hosting the Celtics without Jayson Tatum who’s out with a wrist injury. And, on the main card of UFC 283 in Rio de Janeiro, Burns should have Neil Magny outclassed even more than the -500 line implies.

Player Prop (18-23, -$866): Travis Kelce over 6.5 receptions -110 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBok)

$275 to win $250

Kelce remains far and away the top target of Patrick Mahomes, and the veteran tight end will remind everyone of that to start the playoffs. He had a relatively quiet end to the regular season, having not scored a touchdown since November, but that’s about to change. It seemed at times that the Chiefs’ coaching staff was conserving Kelce while they tinkered with other parts of the offense. That ends in the postseason where Kelce being at his best is a necessary if the Chiefs want to win a second Super Bowl with their current core. This prop is more in the -130 range elsewhere, and that still might not be enough. I’d play it up to -140.

Player Prop (18-23, -$866): Daniel Jones under 44.5 rushing yards -110 (Circa Sports)

$220 to win $200

The Eagles’ defense doesn’t get enough acclaim, at least next to their offense, for how well it’s played all year. Philadelphia finished sixth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings for defense and typically doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. Jones isn’t going to have the rushing lanes he found improvising en route to 78 yards on the ground in last week’s win over the Vikings. The Eagles held him to 26 yards on four carries in their only meeting this season (Jones sat out the Week 18 contest). This prop should be in the low-to-mid 30s, not the mid-40s.

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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) runs into the end zone on a touchdown carry during the first half of an NFL wild-card football game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday, Jan. 16, 2023, in Tampa, Fla.

Futures Finding (13-9, $2,010): Dallas Cowboys to be the highest-scoring team of divisional round weekend 13-to-1 (South Point)

$50 to win $650

Do I think the Cowboys will outscore everyone this week? No. Do I think they have better than a 7% chance? Of course. That’s what this line implies, and that’s way too high. Dallas has some matchup advantages here, namely its vertical passing game against a defense that’s only weakness is defending deep down the field. Much like last week’s wager on Brady, this will give us action until the final whistle of the playoff weekend since Dallas at San Francisco is the final game. Let’s hope this one ends better.

Non-football Play (13-9, $822): Vegas Golden Knights -101 vs. Washington Capitals (Circa Sports)

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Vegas Golden Knights goaltender Logan Thompson (36) cools off during a NHL hockey game against the St. Louis Blues on Friday, Dec. 23, 2022, in Las Vegas.

$202 to win $200

Yes, the Golden Knights are severely beaten-up and therefore in disarray but the market has gone too far in accounting for that. They’ve still been better than the Capitals on the year by almost all efficiency metrics and hold one of the biggest home ice advantages in the NHL at T-Mobile Arena. Vegas’ better goaltender, Logan Thompson, will also start this game after Adin Hill gave up three goals in an upset loss to Detroit on Thursday. Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy called out the team after that third straight defeat, so a stronger effort should be expected here. It’s not comfortable backing a team without its best player, Mark Stone, and several other complementary pieces but I priced this around -120 — making the pick’em price too good to pass up.

Sunday Sweats year to date: 67-77, $2,250.57

Weekend betting column year to date: 137-160-1, $6,044.35

Weekend betting column all-time: 479-490-5, $12,890.08 

Previous pending future wagers: Vegas Golden Knights at 15-to-1 to win the 2023 Stanley Cup ($200 to win $3,000); Patrick Mahomes 10-to-1 to win NFL MVP ($200 to win $2,000); Philadelphia Eagles to win the NFC 14-to-1 ($100 to win $1,400); Nick Bosa to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at 7-to-1 ($250 to win $1,750); Giannis Antetokounmpo to win NBA MVP at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Northwest Division at +150 ($200 to win $300); Minnesota Timberwolves to win Western Conference at 15-to-1 ($100 to win $1,500); Minnesota Timberwolves to win NBA Finals at 33-to-1 ($75 to win $2,475); New Orleans Pelicans to win Southwest Division at +350 ($200 to win $700); New Orleans Pelicans to win Western Conference at 24-to-1 ($50 to win $1,200); New Orleans Pelicans to win NBA Finals at 55-to-1 ($50 to win $2,750); Golden State Warriors under 53 wins ($220 to win $200); Los Angeles Clippers under 52.5 wins ($220 to win $200); Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals at 7-to-1 ($300 to win $2,100); Chicago Blackhawks to have lowest regular season point total at 6-to-1 ($200 to win $1,200);Micah Parsons to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at -110 ($275 to win $250); Luka Doncic to win NBA MVP at 4-to-1 ($450 to win $1,800); Boston Celtics to win Atlantic Division at -220 ($660 to win $300); Dak Prescott to lead the NFL playoffs in passing yards at 21-to-1 ($100 to win $2,100)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or

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