Fly Money Fly: Eagles favored over Chiefs in Super Bowl after taking early action

By Case Keefer (contact)

Published Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023 | 7:27 p.m.

Updated Sunday, Jan. 29, 2023 | 8:48 p.m.

Sports bettors found the Philadelphia Eagles’ 31-7 dismantling of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game more impressive than the Kansas City Chiefs’ 23-20 escape of the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship Game, and acted accordingly.

Early money came in on Philadelphia in the Super Bowl 57 betting market and pushed the Eagles to a 2-point favorite over the Chiefs on Sunday night at most sports books in Nevada. Kansas City opened as the favorite at several sports books at the conclusion of the championship games, but the line flipped within minutes.

Circa Sports, which typically takes the largest wagers and featured opening $20,000 limits, saw the most drastic movement as it initially posted Kansas City -2.5 before settling at Philadelphia -2.5. The total is set at over/under 49.5 points.  

Other shops like Caesars/William Hill, which operates the most sports books in Nevada, opened the game as a straight pick’em before drifting towards Philadelphia.

"We took some Chiefs' money early before we saw a bunch come in on the Eagles," Adam Pullen, Caesars Sportsbook Assistant Director of Trading, said in a statement. "So far, most of the action has been on the Eagles."

Only one previous Super Bowl, the New England Patriots’ 2015 victory over the Seattle Seahawks, closed as a pick’em. There’s a chance Kansas City vs. Philadelphia, scheduled for Feb. 12 in Glendale, Ariz., could become the second.  

The point spread is far from locked in, as ample action is still to come in the two weeks before the game. The Super Bowl is the biggest single-game betting event of the year with a record $179.8 million wagered in Nevada a year ago on the Los Angeles Rams’ 23-20 victory over the Bengals as 4.5-point favorites.

The American Gaming Association estimates more than $7 billion is bet on the Super Bowl nationwide, including both legal and illegal wagers.   

The favorite has prevailed in three of the last four Super Bowls, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers upsetting the Chiefs while getting three points on the spread in 2021 the most recent time the underdog won outright. Kansas City will be making its third Super Bowl appearance in the last four years, but went off as a favorite in each of the previous two instances.

In addition to the Tampa Bay loss, Kansas City defeated San Francisco 31-20 as 1.5-point favorites in 2020.

The Eagles knocked off the Patriots 41-38 as 4-point underdogs to win their first Super Bowl in their most recent appearance, in 2018.

Philadelphia was popularly bet Sunday as it moved from a 1.5- to 3-point favorite over San Francisco before kickoff, and gave its backers an easy victory. The Eagles scored a touchdown on their opening offensive drive before their defense then forced a fumble and injured 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.

San Francisco was eventually left without a quarterback who could throw the ball with Purdy, a third-stringer coming into the year, nursing a hurt elbow and emergency backup Josh Johnson also knocked out of the game. The Eagles’ defense suffocated the 49ers by only allowing 164 yards and 3.6 yards per play.  

The AFC Championship Game was much more drama-filled as Kansas City kicker Harrison Butker knocked through a 45-yard field goal in the final seconds to secure the victory. The game-winning kick was set up when Bengals edge rusher Joseph Ossai picked up an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty for a late hit on Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

The likely NFL MVP Mahomes managed 326 passing yards and two touchdowns despite coming into the game with a high ankle sprain that severely limited his mobility. Mahomes’ injury status was heavily scrutinized all week, as the Chiefs got as high as a 3-point underdog — only for a few brief minutes at Caesars last Monday — before closing as a 2-point favorite.

Mahomes’ health will again be under a microscope heading into the Super Bowl. How close he is to 100% may ultimately dictate which team winds up favored — or whether Super Bowl 57 can get back to a pick’em.

“When we made all the lookahead matchups last week, every game was between a 1-point spread and pick’em," Pullen said, "so this game seems like a natural toss-up.” 

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or