Instant analysis: Raiders receive gift of last-second win in New York

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Sunday, Dec. 6, 2020 | 1:30 p.m.

The Raiders traveled to New York needing a win to keep pace with the rest of the AFC wildcard contenders, and they came away with that victory — barely.

Las Vegas gave away a big lead in the second half, but a miracle 46-yard touchdown pass from Derek Carr to Henry Ruggs with five seconds to play moved the Raiders to 7-5 on the season and kept their playoff hopes alive.

Some quick analysis of an impossible win:

Disaster averted

A loss to the Jets — a team that is actively trying to lose all its games — would have been an unforgivable disaster for Las Vegas. And through the first 10 minutes or so, it looked like it might happen. In fact, it looked like a repeat of last week’s equally unforgivable no-show loss at Atlanta: Rookie cornerback Damon Arnette was knocked out on the first drive due to a blow to the head that looked identical to last week, then the woeful Jets went the length of the field for an easy touchdown to take a 7-0 lead. Las Vegas’ first possession ended when Derek Carr tossed an interception at midfield.

Catastrophe, right?

Not exactly. Instead of folding like they did in Atlanta, the Raiders regrouped, thanks almost entirely to Carr and tight end Darren Waller.

The Jets’ questionable game plan allowed Waller to run downfield against single coverage on passing downs, and Carr took advantage by targeting him early and often. He fired a 9-yard touchdown to Waller to tie the game, 7-7, late in the first quarter, and the duo connected on a 38-yard catch-and-run touchdown in the final minutes of the half to give Las Vegas a 17-13 lead at the break. Waller finished with a game-high 17 targets, 13 catches and a season-high 200 yards. Most of the completions could be classified as wide open.

Was single coverage on a Pro Bowl tight end the best idea from the Jets’ perspective? Probably not. But New York is 0-12 for a reason — again, the Jets want to lose every game in order to secure the No. 1 overall draft pick — and in that context leaving Waller open was a brilliant plan.

The Jets' desire to lose was never more evident than on the final drive. After the Raiders run-heavy offensive approach in the second-half allowed New York to come back and take an improbable 28-24 lead, Las Vegas had the ball at midfield with 13 seconds on the clock. First, the Jets allowed Nelson Agholor to run past single coverage and get wide-open for a potential touchdown pass; Carr overthrew him. On the next play the Jets did it again, begging Henry Ruggs to run past the defense for another wide-open downfield shot. This time Carr connected, and the Raiders escaped New York with a gift of a win.

Ruggs’ struggs

Because he was the first receiver chosen in the 2020 draft (ahead of more highly-regarded prospects), Henry Ruggs came into the season with high expectations. He had not lived up to them — until the final play of today's game.

His top-end speed has come in handy and has allowed him to break some big plays every other week or so, but whenever the Raiders try to integrate Ruggs into the base offense it seems to go poorly. Carr’s interception on the opening drive was Ruggs’ fault, as he short-armed a high pass over the middle and tipped it up into the secondary for an easy pick. Ruggs only got two other targets before the final drive: a nice little catch-and-run for 28 yards in the first quarter, and a short reception that ended in a lost fumble midway through the fourth quarter. That fumble gave New York a short field and led directly to the Jets’ go-ahead touchdown with 5:34 to play.

The Raiders drafted Ruggs with the idea that he’d stretch the field and warp defenses like Kansas City speedster Tyreek Hill, but for the season Ruggs has just 20 catches for 396 yards and two touchdowns. He was being fitted for goat horns today before the Jets let him score on the Hail Mary, so the Raiders have to hope that game-winner somehow sparks Ruggs to being a more effective player down the stretch.

When it comes to freakishly fast wide receivers transitioning to the NFL, the spectrum is wide. Despite his potentially season-saving touchdown today, right now Ruggs is closer to Tavon Austin than he is to Hill.

Big players come through on defense

The Las Vegas defense did not play well on Sunday, as the dreadful Jets racked up an average of 6.3 yards per play. The Raiders were able to make enough big plays, however, to change momentum and ultimately tilt the game in Vegas’ direction.

Defensive end Clelin Ferrell was the star, as he returned from the COVID-19 reserve list and played his most impactful game as a pro. He recorded a pair of strip-sacks (including one that led directly to three points for the Raiders) and spent most of the day torturing New York’s prized rookie tackle, Mekhi Becton.

Trayvon Mullen also came up with a stunning takeaway in the second quarter when he closed quickly on a stop route and cut in front to make a diving, one-handed interception. It was Mullen’s second pick of the year and certainly the most stylish of his young pro career.

It was exactly what the Raiders needed. On a day when they were largely gashed by the bad QB/bad coach combo of Sam Darnold and Adam Gase, Ferrell and Mullen stepped up as the difference-makers.

What’s next

The next three weeks will probably decide Las Vegas’ playoff chances. The Raiders came into today with a 45-percent chance of qualifying for the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, and today's win only allowed Vegas to keep pace with the teams directly ahead of them in the wildcard race, as Miami, Indianapolis and Cleveland all won today.

The good news is the Raiders will have a huge opportunity to improve their postseason odds with head to head matchups against their closest competitors as they host the Colts on Sunday and the Dolphins in Week 16.

The Raiders pretty much have to win out and finish at 10-6, with head-to-head wins over Indianapolis and Miami, to have a real shot at a wildcard berth. That stretch run begins now.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.