Carr, draft and free agency: Las Vegas Raiders offseason primer

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Friday, Jan. 3, 2020 | 2 a.m.

The NFL playoffs begin Saturday, and the Oakland Raiders are on the outside looking in after posting a 7-9 record this season. The next time the team does take the field in the fall they'll be the Las Vegas Raiders, but there are a lot of decisions to be made before the team packs up and heads to its new home in the desert.

An offseason primer for Las Vegas' next pro sports franchise:

Decision on Carr

The biggest issue looming over the team as it moves to Las Vegas is the status of the franchise quarterback. What do the Raiders have in Derek Carr, and is he the guy Jon Gruden wants under center for the long term?

Carr had one of his best statistical seasons in 2019, setting career bests in completion percentage (70.4 percent), yards per attempt (7.9) and passer rating (100.8). But there were also times when he played so conservatively that it appeared to hinder the offense, preferring safe check-down passes to longer, big-play attempts. That style can win in the NFL, but is that really the way Gruden wants to go about running the offense?

Carr is heading into this season as a 29-year-old with three years left on his contract, which carries cap hits of $21.5 millions, $22.1 million and $19.8 million per year, respectively. Even if the Raiders decide to draft a young quarterback, it's likely Carr will stick around for at least another season. After 2020, his dead cap drops to $2.5 million and would make it more palatable to move on.

As of now, expect Carr to be the man next year, with one more extended chance to prove he can be an elite quarterback.

Draft strategy

The Raiders are well-positioned for the draft thanks to the looking-smarter-every-day Khalil Mack trade. Las Vegas will have two first-round picks in April (No. 12 and No. 19 overall), and five picks in the top 100, so that draft capital should allow the franchise to go in a few different directions.

The Raiders can stay put and draft premium prospects at positions of need, snagging a top-tier wide receiver or an interior defensive lineman — that's the most obvious route to improving the team. But if Gruden and general manager Mike Mayock want to get creative, there could be a route to trade back, stockpile more picks for the 2021 draft and use that treasure chest to make a move up for a quarterback like Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, who is widely projected to go No. 1 overall next year.

Those are two diametrically opposed approaches. Last year the Gruden/Mayock brain trust chose to select established, high-floor players in the early rounds, so swinging for the fences with an eye toward the future would represent a shift in strategy. The important thing is, the Raiders have options.

Cap allocation

When it comes to sustained success in the NFL, nothing is more important than managing the salary cap, and that's another area in which the Raiders are set this offseason. According to OverTheCap.com, the team has approximately $75 million in cap space available for 2020, which the team can either use to add free agents, extend its own players or roll over to 2021.

The offense is mostly locked in, with all five starting linemen under contract and Carr and rookie running back Josh Jacobs making up the backfield. Tight end Darren Waller emerged as a star in 2019 and signed an extension during the season. That leaves wide receiver as one unit that could use a free-agent upgrade.

The defense is another story. The Raiders need help at just about every position on that side of the ball, so splurging on two or three starters in free agency isn't out of the question if the team wants to win now.

Current roster

Part of cap management is identifying which players are franchise cornerstones (who will need to be extended down the road) and which players are not part of the long-term plans. Again, the Raiders have a pretty clean ledger in that regard.

Most of the team's cornerstones are in place and under contract. Some are on rookie deals (running back Josh Jacobs, defensive end Maxx Crosby, offensive tackle Kolton Miller, cornerback Trayvon Mullen, defensive end Clelin Ferrell), while the rest are veterans who are already signed for several more seasons (Carr, Waller, guard Gabe Jackson, center Rodney Hudson).

Safety Karl Joseph and cornerback Daryl Worley will be free agents this offseason and will likely be the most pressing decisions. Joseph, a first-round pick in 2016, regressed from his breakout 2018 season (dropping from a Pro Football Focus grade of 74.5 last year to a 69.9 this year) but will still draw competitive offers from other teams. Worley was a third-round pick in 2016 and posted an identical 69.9 grade this season. Retaining both players would be good for defensive continuity, but not if it comes at the expense of burning too much cap space.

Another decision will have to be made on wide receiver Tyrell Williams. The 27-year-old has three years and $34 million left on his contract, but none of it is guaranteed, so the Raiders could cut him and save upwards of $11 million per year with no dead money on the cap. For a player who only caught 42 passes for 651 yards this season, the cap savings have to look pretty tempting to Mayock and Gruden — even considering the thin depth chart at receiver.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.