Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Raiders Rebound: Five reasons for optimism despite first loss of the year

Here are some of the things still looking up for the 2-1 Raiders

Raiders-Pats 4

Charles Krupa / Associated Press

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) passes against the New England Patriots in the first half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, in Foxborough, Mass.

Week 3: Raiders at Patriots

New England Patriots running back Sony Michel (26) runs away from Las Vegas Raiders defensive back Damon Arnette (20) in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 27, 2020, in Foxborough, Mass. Launch slideshow »

Defeats bring out the worst in fans and media alike.

Teams’ flaws are often just as evident in victories, but nothing enhances them quite like adding to the loss column. The Las Vegas Raiders added to the loss column for the first time in history last Sunday, falling 36-20 to the New England Patriots and the reaction has been predictable.

It’s been a whole lot of pessimism. Cries of the Raiders’ defense being a disaster, their offense falling short and the coach making clear mistakes have dominated conversation of the game ever since.

Some of the concern is justified — heck, all of it might be justified — but there are reasons to be positive about the Raiders’ prospects too. Las Vegas sits 2-1, after all, which is no small feat considering it opened an underdog in each of its first three games, and the last two came against arguably the two best franchises of the last decade.  

There’s been plenty of opportunity for Raiders’ fans to mope and resign themselves to thinking their team will miss the playoffs for the 17th time in 18 seasons. Just as many reasons exist, however, to look on the bright side going into Sunday’s Week 4 game against the Buffalo Bills at Allegiant Stadium.

Here are five reasons for optimism as the Raiders near the quarter mark of the season.

Quarterback play

It seems more preposterous by the day that, going into the season, some thought Derek Carr didn’t give the Raiders the best chance to win.

The sixth-year quarterback had a career year last season and has gone on to elevate his play so far in 2020, posting career highs in completion percentage (74%) and QBR (71.1) through three games. He also ranks fifth in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DYAR metric and has thrown for six touchdowns and no interceptions.

Carr’s hot start, which has also seen him average 7.8 yards per attempt, is even more impressive when considering the injury attrition among his receiving corps. The Raiders lost Tyrell Williams before the season, saw Henry Ruggs III get hurt in the first half of Week 1 and have since also lost Bryan Edwards.

The compounding of injuries means Carr might have to continue to be just as sharp, if not sharper going forward, but he’s shown no indication that he’s incapable.

A team’s chances start with their quarterback, and few quarterbacks in the league have been better than Carr so far.

Youth

If Coach Jon Gruden had a quarter for every time he’s said "we’re a young team" over the last two months, he’d have amassed enough to pay off a pretty solid chunk of his $100,000 fine for violating the NFL’s mask protocols.

Every NFL team says it has “no excuses” when anything goes wrong, and then proceeds to fall back on one as a token explainer anyway. Youth is that of the Raiders, and it’s among the best ones to have, especially this year given the shortened preseason and lack of reps for players still adjusting to the league.

Las Vegas currently starts nine players who are in either their first or second year, meaning they’re less of a proven commodity and more likely to make an in-season leap in production. There’s still time for players like defensive end Clelin Ferrell, cornerback Damon Arnette and safety Johnathan Abram — all of whom have been the source of some frustration for various reasons — to develop.

Football Outsiders rates Las Vegas as the 10th youngest team in the league in snap-weighted age average. That could make for significant upside as the season goes on.

Return to health

Teams are resigned to the fact that they’re more than likely going to be besieged by injuries at some point of the season. The Raiders are just hoping they got their rash out of the way early.

There’s no dancing around the fact that Las Vegas is severely wounded right now, listing 15 players on the injury report out of Wednesday’s practice. A few of them, however, could be on their way back.

Middle linebacker and defensive captain Nick Kwiatkoski partook in practice, albeit in a limited capacity, for the first time since Week 1 on Wednesday. Las Vegas could have added him to injured reserve if it expected him to miss at least three weeks after he hurt his pectoral in Week 1 at Carolina but declined to do so.

It’s a similar situation with star right tackle Trent Brown, who isn’t practicing yet but also wasn’t put on injured reserve after re-injuring his calf against the Panthers. That’s two of Las Vegas’ top 10 highest-paid players who could return this week, and they may not be alone.

“Some of these injuries are hard to be exact in terms of the timetable, so we’ll keep our fingers crossed,” Gruden said. “Both men are improving, and we need them back in the lineup.”

Aside from Williams getting hurt in training camp, the Raiders haven’t lost anyone else significant for the season. Injury regression is likely, albeit far from guaranteed, going forward.   

Reduced rivals

A silver lining of the Raiders’ injury situation: It might not be as bleak as the two teams they project to be fighting hardest against for playoff positioning.

Coming into the season, the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs were seen as a runaway favorite to win the AFC West. But cases could be, and were, made for each of the other three teams in the division finishing in second place.

Las Vegas now sits in a better position than Denver and the Los Angeles Chargers, though, and not only because they have two more wins than the former and one more than the latter. The Broncos and Chargers have both lost their starting quarterbacks — Drew Lock and Tyrod Taylor, respectively — for an undetermined amount of time and best defensive players — Derwin James and Von Miller, respectively — likely for the season.

Many would argue the Chargers are better positioned for success with rookie quarterback Justin Herbert anyway, but there’s no way to paint the Broncos — which rank dead last in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA — as having gotten more threatening.

It’s looking much more manageable, if not advantageous, for the Raiders to have four remaining games combined against the two divisional opponents.

Confidence

Let’s be real: No one is talking about the Raiders as Super Bowl contenders. No one except the Raiders themselves at least.

Unprompted, several players have mentioned earning a ring matter-of-factly over the last couple months. And that didn’t stop after the loss to the Patriots, as receiver Hunter Renfrow brought it up in the postgame news conference in part to reiterate his belief in his teammates.

There’s a lot of belief in the Raiders among the Raiders. Carr has said repeatedly that everything feels differently with the team this year, and not just because they have a new home.

Despite the injuries, despite the lack of defensive support, and yes, despite last week’s loss, he’s not straying from such optimism.

“If we are going to blow up all the good we’ve done after one game, then this ain’t for some people,” Carr said. “Look, we are fine. We’re going to be fine.”   

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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