Four reasons UNLV football could exceed expectations in 2021

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Sunday, July 25, 2021 | 2 a.m.

If all the prognosticators are correct, it’s going to be a long, brutal season for UNLV football.

Coming off an 0-6 campaign in Marcus Arroyo’s first year at the helm, it’s hard to find anyone with optimism about the direction of the program. In fact, most seem to think the product on the field will be even worse in 2021; the Mountain West preseason poll had the scarlet and gray dead last in the 12-team league, and not a single UNLV player was chosen for the MWC preseason All-Conference team. That’s painful.

But amid everyone presuming UNLV to be terrible, there is opportunity for the team to outperform those low, low expectations. Four reasons why they could surprise:

The bar is so low

UNLV simply having a pulse will shock some people. Sports books have set the team’s over/under at 1.5 wins, which, when put in context, seems impossible. Even an historically bad program like UNLV hasn’t had a season with one win or fewer since 1998 (0-11), not counting the truncated 2020 campaign.

That means even when UNLV is bad-bad, they still manage to win more than one game. And the Mountain West schedule hardly presents a gauntlet of opponents. If Arroyo can get his team to play merely competent football, they should be able to fall into two wins and clear the bar.

Chip on the shoulder

As mentioned above, UNLV was completely shut out of the All-Mountain West preseason team, despite having a couple of standout candidates in senior running back Charles Williams, freshman receiver Kyle Williams and sophomore linebacker Jacoby Windmon.

Judging by Windmon’s comments at media day, the players didn’t take kindly to being snubbed.

“It’s all about what we do behind closed doors,” Windmon said, “ because everybody’s not there with us when we’re working. Everybody’s not there with us when we’re on our last rep when that’s all you’ve got and there’s no more to give. I don’t really try to pay too much attention to that because I focus on us. I focus on how we can get better as a team and all that other stuff will come afterward. It kind of put a chip on my shoulder and gave me another reason to go harder.”

The disrespect card is a tried and true approach for underdogs, and it sounds like Windmon and his teammates will be playing it this season.

Upgraded defense

UNLV fielded one of the worst defenses in the country last year, ranking in the bottom 20 in points allowed (38.0) and rushing defense (6.3 yards per carry) and 22^nd-worst in pass defense (8.4 yards per attempt). But Arroyo believes an upgraded defensive front will make the entire unit more effective.

The biggest addition, literally, is Conor Murphy, a grad transfer from USC who is projected to start at defensive end. Murphy is 6-foot-7, 270 pounds and should be able to set the edge effectively. Arroyo is also high on senior transfer linebacker Kylan Wilborn, who recorded 7.0 sacks and 9.0 tackles for loss as a freshman at Arizona before injuries sapped him the past two years.

Though he’s counting on a lot of newcomers and unproven players, Arroyo feels like he has a more competitive group on that side of the ball.

“I think the front, defensively, is something we’ve really, really looked at and believe in,” Arroyo said. “I’ve said it since I got here, playing defense is going to be important. In the trenches, it’s got to be something that philosophically we want to be proud about.”

Home field advantage

Like every other team in the country, UNLV had no home field advantage last year. But it was especially harmful for the scarlet and gray, as they expected to be playing in front of bigger-than-usual crowds in brand-new Allegiant Stadium.

Now that the vaccines are here and things appear to be on track for full capacity games in the fall (fingers crossed), maybe UNLV will finally enjoy that home-field bump.

Williams believes it will be a positive factor.

“I felt like last year with no fans, we didn’t have it in our system like, ‘This is our house,’” Williams said. “It was still new to us. It was like a fantasy. But we understand this is our house now and we’ve got to protect the home.”

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.