Analysis: Mike Nuga stepping into scoring role at UNLV

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Wednesday, June 2, 2021 | 2 a.m.

UNLV’s three highest scorers last season were guards, as Bryce Hamilton, David Jenkins and Caleb Grill combined to average 41.8 points per game. Two of the three exited the program this offseason to leave new coach Kevin Kruger in need of offensive production.

Kruger hit the transfer portal in an effort to rebuild the team’s guard rotation, and one of his most heralded additions is Mike Nuga, a sixth-year senior who led Kent State with 17.8 points last year.

Nuga is well traveled, with stops at Eastern Florida CC and Portland State before he got to Kent State. Will UNLV be the beneficiary of his talents in 2021-22?

There’s a lot to like about Nuga’s offensive game. He didn’t score nearly 18 points per game by accident, as he can put the ball in the basket in a variety of ways.

He’s not an isolation-type scorer in the Hamilton mold, or at least he wasn’t at Kent State. That offense was designed to get the ball to Nuga while he was in motion, allowing him to put the ball on the floor and attack the basket against recovering defenses.

That style played to Nuga’s strengths, as he is good at taking handoffs and turning the corner. He can dip his shoulder and use a power step to get the angle on his defender, and he is comfortable launching himself to the rim at full speed and extending the ball to finish out in front of the defense.

He also likes to catch the ball off a screen and reverse direction, using the defender’s momentum against him as he dribbles to the hoop.

It’s all effective, as 42.9% of Nuga’s shot attempts came around the rim—a much higher rate than Hamilton (24.1%, Grill 12.4% or Jenkins (7.3%):

Though he’s just 6-foot-2, Nuga converted 64.4% of his close-range shots. That shows a real knack for driving and finishing, and it made him an efficient scorer (62.8% true shooting).

That finishing touch also helps him in the open court, where he is downright lethal. Nuga is fast, and even more importantly, he can dribble and execute moves under control while at full speed. If he sees an opponent (or two, or three) on their heels, he likes to accelerate and attack the rim at advantageous angles, using his wheels to race past the last line of defense. Then he’s got a great feel for when to go for a straight finish and when to go lefty or use the rim to protect a reverse layup.

If Nuga catches the ball and hits top speed in the open floor, it’s almost a guaranteed bucket:

Nuga rounds out his scoring arsenal with a reliable 3-point shot. He made 38.5% from long range last year, and while that was an outlier—he made 33.2% in his first three college seasons, including his juco years—he has shown he can take and make at a high volume.

He has a quick trigger on his jumper, usually knowing whether he’s going to shoot or not well before he receives the pass. And like most shooters, Nuga is at his best when he can square up, gather his feet under him and release it on his own terms. When he’s sped up, his accuracy tends to stray.

But he will definitely keep defenses honest:

Nuga is not a point guard—he’s a shooting guard through and through. He’s a bit undersized for the role, but he sported a usage rate of 23.0% last year and recorded just 1.6 assists per game, so passing is not on his mind.

He didn’t put a lot of passes on tape last season:

Nuga does keep his turnovers low (1.4 per game), so that allows him to be an efficient offensive player strictly via his scoring abilities.

On the defensive end, Nuga is somewhat disadvantaged by his size, but he puts in a good effort to stay in front of opposing ball-handlers. He defends with energy and moves his feet to cut of penetration, but he’s just not going to bother a lot of shots due to his height.

He also has a habit of sinking deep into the paint as a help defender, allowing his man to spot up for wide open catch-and-shoot jumpers. That may have been built into Kent State’s system, however.

Nuga doesn’t seem like a liability on the defensive end. He’s probably neutral:

A neutral defender with Nuga’s scoring chops is a pretty good player, however, and one that UNLV can certainly use in 2020-21.

Somewhat ironically, Nuga's offensive profile would have made him an ideal fit for an analytics-based coach like T.J. Otzelberger, as his shot distribution is an efficiency-driven dream: last year an outrageous 99.4% of his field-goal attempts were categorized as either layups or 3-pointers, with mid-range shots accounting for just 0.6%. It's rare to see him take a bad shot. 

Given UNLV’s need for offense and all the open spots in the backcourt, Nuga seems locked into a starting job. He’d probably be most effective playing next to a natural point guard, or someone who can initiate the offense and run pick-and-rolls, since that’s not something Nuga has much experience doing, but if UNLV gets the ball in his hands and lets him attack the basket, Nuga will score a lot of points and do it efficiently.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.