Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

LETTER TO THE EDITOR:

Judge the cause, not the outcome

In “The Art of Thinking Clearly,” Rolf Dobelli explains a fallacy called “outcome bias.” We sometimes irrationally judge choices and situations based on their outcomes. It is far better, he says, to judge by the causes, the processes, rather than by the results.

In the May 29 column “When you can’t see racism,” Robert Pawlicki makes an assumption that borders on the absurd. He writes, “When you can’t see ... the extraordinary discrepancy of Blacks in prison … it should indicate that you are prejudiced.”

In other words, because of the outcome that there are more Blacks in prison, society is racist, whites are racist, I am racist. I continue to be surprised by this ridiculous reasoning on the part of liberals, Black Lives Matter activists, and Pawlicki.

Instead of judging by the outcome, we should examine the process. About this, Pawlicki says, “(Racism) is present in our education, health care, criminal justice, banking systems and more.”

But there are no specifically racist policies or laws in any of these areas. Pawlicki is reasoning from outcomes, not causes. Same error.

Until we examine the true causes, the underlying processes of these conflicts, we will make no headway. Pawlicki and anyone who reasons from outcome bias is not helping.