Nevada political update: Poll of polls gives Obama edge

By David McGrath Schwartz

Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008 | 1:03 p.m.

Here's the Early Line from your Carson City correspondent, where Cliff (from Cheers) will be stumping for Republican presidential nominee John McCain.

It's a poll heavy day, and the question is not whether it's good news in Nevada for Democratic nominee Barack Obama, it's a question of how good.

At one extreme is a poll that has Obama up 52 to 40 in Nevada.

More modestly, the Reno Gazette-Journal has Obama up by 5, 50 to 45 percent, with a margin of error of 4 percent.

Confused about the polls and which one to believe -- or whether you should believe any of them?

There are some poll aggregators out there. Real Clear Politics puts the average for Nevada at Obama +7.5 percent.

Or, you can just argue that maybe the polls are all wrong.

-- Even with the good news the polls suggest for Obama, Molly Ball has a story that reveals that three demographic groups conventional wisdom says are Obama supporters -- new voters, young voters and Hispanic voters -- lag in early voting turnout compared to overall totals.

-- Rep. Dean Heller is sued for using the Broadway song "Big Spender" in campaign ads attacking Democrat Jill Derby. While the campaign insists it did nothing wrong, it has pulled the background music for some weeks now, at least according to my TV watching observations.

-- The Reno Gazette-Journal looks at union efforts in Northern Nevada to turn out the vote.

-- Lisa Mascaro looks at the $5 million the Republican party is borrowing to help Nevada Sen. John Ensign's efforts to elect Republican senators. Ensign's failure would, of course, seem to be a benefit for Nevada's other senator, Majority Leader Harry Reid.

-- Jon Ralston writes about whether Democrats -- possibly strengthened in Carson City with the Democratic tide -- will step up and talk about taxes, or will continue to cut the state's budget.