Friday, April 8, 2011 | 10:41 a.m.
The poll, taken by Strategic National, shows Carolyn Goodman ahead, 48-34, over Chris Giunchigliani. The auto-dial survey (caveats apply) was taken Thursday of 510 likely city voters and has a margin of error of 4.3 percent. Strategic National paid for the poll simply to gauge the race - that is John Yob's firm, the same outfit that looked into Danny Tarkanian running for mayor.
Although the lead obviously is good news for Goodman, her unfavorables -- 22 percent -- actually are slightly higher than Giunchigliani's -- 21 percent. But a third of the respondents said they have no opinion of the county commissioner while half that number say the same about the mayor's wife. That likely accounts for her lead.
On other issues, it appears as if Larry Brown's endorsement doesn't do much and Steve Ross's could hurt. Slightly more than a third of the voters think the wife's candidacy is an attempt by the husband to circumvent term limits, half say no. In a question that apparently alludes to Dennis Mastro, once convicted after representation by Oscar Goodman of fronting for a New Jersey crime family, 40 percent of voters say they are less likely to vote for Carolyn Goodman if they knew someone connected to organized crime contributed to her (as Mastro, now a successful restaurateur did, although the question's wording implies the tie is current). But after being told of all the taxes Giunchigliani supported as a lawmaker -- the poll used a conservative estimate of $1 billion -- 56 percent are less likely to back her.
The bottom line, if the poll is accurate: Goodman has a solid lead, but her negatives have to be of concern, and both candidates have issues that could hurt. It's only a baseline -- the race hasn't even begun -- but an interesting one.
I have posted the survey at right.