DSCC: Heller is a “paper tiger” who lost Washoe County, not known in Clark County

Wednesday, March 9, 2011 | 7:41 a.m.

In a memo this morning, two days after Sen. John Ensign announced he wouldn't run and as Rep. Dean Heller prepares to announce, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee sent out a memo trying to knock down any perception the congressman is a juggernaut. The memo makes several good points, including how Heller has run in Washoe County (he lost to Jill Derby once and barely beat her another time) and indicates how his name ID in Southern Nevada is not strong.

Here it is:

TO: Interested Parties

FR: DSCC Executive Director Guy Cecil

DT: March 9, 2011

RE: Dean Heller: a Paper Tiger

This week’s announcement from Senator Ensign affirms Nevada’s position as a top pickup opportunity for Democrats this cycle. It was, is, and will remain high on our target list. Democrats will have the resources needed to win this seat and just as important, will build a grassroots organization that matches 2008 and 2010.

Republicans face an uphill battle in this blue-trending state. President Obama won Nevada by nearly 13 percent. Even if that margin drops slightly in 2012, the Republican nominee would need to siphon a significant part of the Obama coalition in order to win. And in the most pro-Republican political atmosphere in decades, Senator Reid won his race comfortably – by a margin much higher than anyone predicted. Statewide, Democrats have a nearly 8-point party registration advantage.

Several Republicans including Lt Governor Brian Krolicki and former State Senator Sharron Angle are reportedly mulling runs. And there is much speculation that Congressman Dean Heller will make a bid for the seat. Much like the famed Senate bids of Mark Kennedy (Minnesota, 2006) and Bob Schaeffer (Colorado, 2008), Dean Heller’s candidacy is very much a paper tiger. Though Heller is perceived as a formidable candidate, a close examination of his Nevada vote performance reveals his support is a mile wide and an inch deep:

Ø In 2006, in an open seat, he beat Democrat Jill Derby by only 5 percent in a non-Presidential year and lost Washoe County (50-46) when Washoe County was predominantly Republican. Heller only won 50-45 district-wide in a Congressional district that had a sizeable Republican advantage in 2006. [NV Secretary of State]

Ø In 2008, as an incumbent with an opponent who had been branded as a partisan Democrat, Heller barely beat Jill Derby in Washoe County - by 1% or 1700 votes. [NV Secretary of State]

Ø Dean Heller has never faced a competitive statewide election. In his 1998 re-election bid for Secretary of State, there was no Democrat on the ballot. In 2002, he faced an unfunded and largely unknown Democratic opponent.

Ø Democratic polling affirms Heller’s less-than-impressive standing in the state. In a Mellman Group survey, Heller has very little profile in Clark County and among Hispanics. Supporters argue his supposed strength is in Washoe County and rural areas. But even in Washoe County where voters should know him best, only 52 percent have a favorable opinion. Among Hispanics, he carries a 24 fav/11 unfav. In Clark County: 18 fav/15 unfav. Two-thirds of voters in Clark County have no idea who he is and among those who do, he holds nearly a 1:1 favorability ratio. Roughly two-thirds of the 2012 Nevada electorate will be from Clark County.

The bottom line is a strong Democrat on the ballot with ample resources and Presidential year turnout adds-up to extremely challenging math for Dean Heller in 2012.