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August 20, 2019

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Presidential primary poll in NV shows Romney and Cain close, rest far behind

Frontrunner Mitt Romney has 31 percent and Herman Cain, who announced today he is boycotting the state's caucus, has 26 percent of Nevada's GOP electorate in a poll taken a few weeks ago for Project New West, a Democratic Party-aligned think tank holding a summit in Las Vegas before next week's GOP debate

The numbers -- the polling memo is posted at right -- are:

Romney:31 percent

Cain: 26 percent

Rick Perry: 12 percent

Newt Gingrich: 7 percent

Ron Paul: 7 percent

Michele Bachmann: 4 percent

Rick Santorum: 2 percent

Jon Huntsman: 1 percent

Some observations:

---Smooth move snubbing a state where you are poised to do well, Mr. Cain.

----The original four boycotting dwarves have a combined 14 percent. Big loss.

----Gov. Brian Sandoval's guy, Perry, isn't doing so well. But maybe Cain's boycott will help him.

---The poll was taken, as you can see from the memo, in late September. The sample is relatively small -- 190 -- so the results have a large margin of error (more than 7 percent). But the fact that Romney is leading comports with what is known and Cain's surge is not surprising, nor is Perry's lack of support (he's done nothing here yet). I'm not sure I agree with the tone of the memo -- voters here may not have "soured" on Romney since 2008 (apples and oranges). One other note: This is the GOP electorate, not caucusgoers -- we have no idea yet what turnout will be here.

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